Hail and Damaging Winds in Illinois, March 15, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
744 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
742 PM CDT

CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAD BEGUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO NEAR QUINCY...AND HAS SINCE BECOME ORIENTED
FROM THE QUAD-CITIES STRETCHING SOUTH TO PIKE COUNTY ILLINOIS.
ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THE LAKE INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
A STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AND COULD LINGER
LONGER INTO THE EVENING. 18Z SOUNDINGS HAD SUGGESTED A MODEST LID
ON DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL IL...HOWEVER HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED THIS WARM LAYER ALOFT WOULD STEADILY DISSOLVE AND THAT
APPEARS TO BE THE CASE AT 00Z. 0- 3KM SHEAR REMAINS SOLID BOTH
WITH DIRECTIONAL/SPEED COMPONENTS...HOWEVER AS WE PROGRESS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS THE FOCUS BECOMES THE FORCING WITHIN THE SYSTEM
AND DEPTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP...AND IS EXPECTED TO SEE STEADY DEEPENING TO THE SFC
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS...WITH LAPSE RATES REMAINING
STEEP.

A SUPERCELL THAT HAD EXHIBITED SOME ROATATION EARLIER THIS EVENING
IN THE HANCOCK/HENDERSON/WARREN IL COUNTIES WAS LIFTING
EAST/NORTHEAST...AND MAY BE ROOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE 330 THETA-E ADVECTION CONTOUR...WHICH LINES UP WITHIN THE
AREA OF DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. THIS MAY END UP FEEDING
ALONG THE HIGHER DEW POINT ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A SOUTH
OF GRUNDY/GARY LINE.

SHEAR REMAINS PRONOUNCED FURTHER NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH COULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
CURRENT TORNADO WATCH COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF WINNEBAGO TO
LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. FURTHER EAST OF THIS AREA THE AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST...THE SHEAR WITHIN THE LOWEST 0-3KM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
GOOD ALTHOUGH EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE TRANSITIONING TOWARDS
ELEVATED. DESPITE THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF I-80 AND EAST
OF THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR LARGE
HAIL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MLCAPE WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN
THE 600-800J/KG RANGE OVER NORTHEAST IL...WITH RAPIDLY TURNING
WITHIN THE WIND FIELDS ALOFT. HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION...BRINGING CONVECTION NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CHICAGO METRO AREA CLOSER TO 3-6Z TIMEFRAME.

BEACHLER

&&

.SHORT TERM...
320 PM CDT

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PROPAGATING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY PER GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FOR MID-
MARCH... CHARACTERIZED BY AIR TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS OF 55-60 INTO CENTRAL IL/WEST CENTRAL IN INCLUDING
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE WFO LOT CWA. WHILE SURFACE FLOW IS BACKED
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE WARM
FRONT APPEARS TO BE APPROXIMATELY NEAR A GALESBURG-PONTIAC-
LAFAYETTE LINE. CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE WAS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL IL...WITH
SPC RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH CIN WEAKENING TO 100 J/KG OR LESS. DYNAMICS ARE BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS WELL WITH APPROACH OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL WAVE...WITH 60 KT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AND
0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 200-300 M2S2 IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS INCREASING CU
FIELD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...WHERE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND HAS BEEN INDICATED BY HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. ENVIRONMENT
PRIMED FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND RECENT SPC MCD INDICATES
TORNADO WATCH LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THE ENHANCED
RISK AREA TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. BASED ON HIGH RES
GUIDANCE...EVOLUTION STILL APPEARS TO BE INITIATION 22-23Z TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTHWEST... WITH STORMS THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 7-8 PM. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST WITH SUPERCELLULAR STORMS
MOVING INTO THE CWA INITIALLY WITH OUR IL COUNTIES ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-80 LIKELY UNDER THE HIGHEST RISK. WIND AND TORNADO
THREAT...WHILE NOT ZERO...WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE CHICAGO METRO WITH SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH GRADUAL DIURNAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST HOWEVER ALL THE WAY TO
LAKE MICHIGAN AND OUR EASTERN CWA COUNTIES AND STORMS ARRIVE IN
THE 9-10 PM TIME FRAME AND LAST THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN AND ITS STRONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE IL/WI BORDER REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGH-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WITH DEEP ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING IN SPEED AND BECOMING GUSTY TO
40-45 MPH BY MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
VERY DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 500-600 MB WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO
SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO/ABOVE 50 MPH BY MIDDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN IL... WITH THE GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER TO THE SOUTH. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE STRONGER GFS WINDS MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE WITH BEST PRESSURE RISES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WI...THOUGH
ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS TO MAINTAIN OUR HIGH WIND WATCH ACROSS
COUNTIES GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80. HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
(SUSTAINED 40 MPH /GUSTS 58 MPH). WITH GUSTY WINDS MODELS ARE
LIKELY TOO QUICK TO DECOUPLE WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY
SEE WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.

WITH GOOD MIXING...HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
TONIGHT...MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...
244 PM CDT

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE REVERSING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COLDEST DAY TIME TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF THAT. THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY ALLOWING
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE U.P.
OF MICHIGAN TO QUICKLY WEAKEN. THIS WILL LEAVE A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. WEAK ENERGY WILL
MOVE DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH WHILE A DEEPER UPPER LOW
PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS QUEBEC WHICH THEN RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
AID IN THE SHARPENING OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMNANT FROM THE OLD
GREAT LAKES LOW THEN DRAW IT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY
SATURDAY. A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD OCCUR EARLY BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 40S CHANGES ANYTHING TO RAIN INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR PRECIP BUT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. THE UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS EAST INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AS SHARP RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
ANY LINGERING PRECIP WOULD LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.

THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW AS THE TROUGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND RIDGING CONTINUES WEST. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW PERHAPS LEADING
TO MINIMAL POPS CHANCES MONDAY. THE RIDGING WILL SHARPEN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE AT PRECIP. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MID NEXT WEEK AND
A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST BUT DETAILS DIFFER QUITE A BIT. A
TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME DOES LOOK
FAVORED FOR MID WEEK.

MDB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...441 PM CDT

STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF
50 TO 55 MPH. WITH SUN EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
POSSIBLY ALL DAY IN PLACES...MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY TO DIP
TO AROUND 25 PERCENT. RAINFALL TONIGHT IN ADDITION TO EXISTING FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 15 PERCENT SHOULD PREVENT TRUE RED
FLAG CRITERIA...BUT BREEZY AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AT
LEAST BE NEAR THRESHOLDS...AND WITH THE DEEPER MIXING 10 HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES COULD NEAR 10 PERCENT IF AREAS...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF THE CHICAGO AREA...ESCAPE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

MTF/KMD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

632 PM...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN IA SOUTH TO
WESTERN IL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS AN ARRIVAL INTO THE
CHICAGO AREA AROUND 04Z BUT MAINTAINED 03Z TEMPO START TIMING FOR
NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
SPEED UP SOME. DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION LIKELY TO ONLY BE 1-2
HOURS AND AN END TIME BY 06Z SEEMS ON TRACK. TIMING INTO RFD A FEW
HOURS EARLIER.

GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE AND THIS HAS BEEN A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS SO FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION BUT A SHORT
PERIOD OF PREVAILING SHOWERS MAY BE NEEDED IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE.

EASTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT...SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PREVAILING GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 40
KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY...FINALLY DIMINISHING EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MAINTAINED IFR CIGS LATER THIS EVENING AS MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOWER CIGS WILL REDEVELOP BUT CONFIDENCE REGARDING CIGS THIS
EVENING IS LOW AND MAY REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER UNDER STORMS/PRECIP
ARRIVE. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR CIGS. CMS

&&

.MARINE...
217 PM CDT

A STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MISSOURI...WILL
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS IT SHIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS (35 KT GALES)
LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STRONG GALE FORCE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY.
THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND. LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH DOWN
THE LAKE...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED.

KJB

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND ADVISORY...ILZ019-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039...7 AM
     WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.

     HIGH WIND WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
     ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ020-ILZ022...7 AM WEDNESDAY
     TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY.

IN...HIGH WIND WATCH...INZ001-INZ002...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
     WEDNESDAY.

     WIND ADVISORY...INZ010-INZ011-INZ019...7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM
     WEDNESDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO NORTHERLY IS UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY.

     STORM WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...10 AM
     WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     10 AM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE NORTHERLY IS TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ777-LMZ779 UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LMZ777-LMZ779...1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
429 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
162130-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
429 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 /529 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

   THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH:

    HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.
    ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
    A TORNADO OR TWO.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTH
  CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE WISCONSIN BORDER AREA THIS
  AFTERNOON...WITH A MINIMAL SEVERE RISK PRIMARILY FOR HAIL.

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
  WESTERN ILLINOIS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NORTHEAST
  INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER 7 PM. STORMS WILL CONTINUE
  TO TRACK INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO
  AREA BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST INDIANA. STORMS
  SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM.

  DISCUSSION:

  A WARM AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WAS ACROSS MUCH
  OF ILLINOIS AND WESTERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE
  VICINITY OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
  RIVER VALLEY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
  BY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF
  SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LARGE
  HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR
  TWO TO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID EVENING.
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
  THE KANKAKEE...CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AREAS THROUGH
  LATE EVENING. WHILE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
  AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY DIMINISH LATER INTO THE EVENING
  ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THE THREAT
  OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR LARGE HAIL.
  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW 50 MPH GUSTS BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE IROQUOIS
RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AT LEAST 50 MPH ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY...AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED BY AROUND SUNSET ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND ELSEWHERE AFTER 9 PM.

&&

LMZ740>745-162130-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
429 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING. HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THIS
EVENING...AND THEN INCREASE TO GALES LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND STORM FORCE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID MORNING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

&&

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-162130-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
429 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...ARE LIKELY ON THE LAKE THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE. STORMS MAY BE SEVERE LATE THIS EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

RATZER

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