A compact upper low pressure system tracked from Eastern Oklahoma toward the Mid-South during the afternoon on March 13, 2016. A moist and unstable airmass was in place across much of Arkansas.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A compact upper low pressure system tracked from Eastern Oklahoma toward the Mid-South during the afternoon on March 13, 2016. A moist and unstable airmass was in place across much of Arkansas. Numerous thunderstorms developed and intensified during the afternoon as the upper low pressure system approached. Heavy rain fell over parts of Memphis causing flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 13, 6:30 PM CST, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
.UPDATE...
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO BEGIN SHORTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE MID SOUTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING...
A COMPACT STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND INITIATE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY
THIS EVENING. THESE SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS
INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND BRING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE REGION AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE MODEST NEAR SURFACE WARM SECTOR
REPRESENTED BY NEAR 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS NEARING
60 DEGREES.
STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT
THIS EVENING AS STORMS PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND.
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND TORNADO
WATCH. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
JLH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016/
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A COUPLE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA
LOCATED ACROSS EXTREME EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
CURRENTLY...AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS ANALYZED ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL OK WITH A MID-LEVEL WESTERLY JET MAX PUNCHING INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE INITIATING
IN AN ARCING BAND ALONG THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE IN EARNEST IN THE FORM OF A CLUSTER OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE WARM SECTOR
CURRENTLY IS CHARACTERIZED BY ~1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-40...WITH A NOTABLE WIND SHIFT/PSEUDO WARM FRONT ALONG
A LINE FROM ADF TO LLQ. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING
BEHIND IT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL LIKELY BOUND THE
GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRE-FRONTAL...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH STORM MOTION VECTORS GENERALLY SHOWING EAST-NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT...FAIRLY QUICKLY...AROUND 50 KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
STORMS MAY OUTRUN AVAILABLE BUOYANCY PRIOR TO REACHING PORTIONS OF
EAST ARKANSAS. THAT BEING SAID...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT MAY
EVOLVE AS THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH...THEN CROSS THE BOUNDARY.
THE QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THAT WILL OCCUR. THE AREA AT
GREATEST RISK ACROSS THE CWA CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE EAST
ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...A WIND
DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 7 PM. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST IS THE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL POSSIBLY KNOCK DOWN TREES ACROSS
WATERLOGGED AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE.
BY MIDNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MOSTLY HAVE DIMINISHED WITH
SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FOR WEST TENNESSEE/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. BY MONDAY MORNING...A
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
QUIESCENT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. VERY WARM 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MANY AREAS TO REACH
80 DEGREES...MID 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL HELP
TO DRY OUT THE REGION.
IN THE MID TO LONG TERM...THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF COOL WITH PERIOD CHANCES OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THERE IS NO SIGNAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIP EVENT IN THE
EXTENDED...HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND
TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
TVT
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
DISTURBANCE TO PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPO THUNDER. STRONGEST CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED AT JBR AND MEM. STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF HAIL.
CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPO MVFR
IN STORMS. CHANCE FOR A LONGER MVFR PERIOD AT TUP LATER TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST.
JAB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BENTON MS-COAHOMA-
DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 434 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-142345- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 434 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS IN THE ENHANCED RISK AREA WILL BE A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OR IN FLOOD. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OR IN FLOOD. OTHERWISE...THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS EVENING. JLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
818 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
&&
ZEIPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
838 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0830 PM TORNADO 3 N LEXA 34.64N 90.75W
03/13/2016 LEE AR STORM CHASER
CONE SHAPED TORNADO CROSSED HIGHWAY 1 NEAR LEXA AND
CYPRESS JUNTION. POWER FLASHES AND POWER LINES DOWN.
&&
JABPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
840 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0805 PM TORNADO MARVELL 34.56N 90.91W
03/13/2016 PHILLIPS AR STORM CHASER
TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORT TORNADO AT INTERSECTION OF US HWY
49 AND ARKANSAS HWY 1 IN WEST SECTION OF MARVELL.
0830 PM TORNADO 3 N LEXA 34.64N 90.75W
03/13/2016 LEE AR STORM CHASER
CONE SHAPED TORNADO CROSSED HIGHWAY 1 NEAR LEXA AND
CYPRESS JUNTION. POWER FLASHES AND POWER LINES DOWN.
0830 PM HAIL COLT 35.13N 90.81W
03/13/2016 E1.50 INCH ST. FRANCIS AR BROADCAST MEDIA
PING PONG SIZE HAIL ON HWY 284.
&&
ZEISPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 922 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ARZ048-049-058-140245- PHILLIPS AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-LEE AR- 922 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR... NORTH CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... SOUTHERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... AT 921 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER AUBREY...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF MARVELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. WEAK ROTATION HAS ALSO BEEN DETECTED WITH THIS STORM. PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL PHILLIPS...SOUTHERN ST. FRANCIS AND CENTRAL LEE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. LAT...LON 3461 9095 3471 9103 3492 9075 3473 9062 TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 233DEG 31KT 3470 9093 TVT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
939 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 W LAKE CORMORANT 34.90N 90.23W
03/13/2016 DESOTO MS LAW ENFORCEMENT
UNCONFIRMED REPORT OF TORNADO AT BASS LANDING AND NORFOLK
ROAD.
&&
ZEIThe Memphis radar (KNQA), 34 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:23 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain produced flash flooding near Downtown Memphis. One foot of water covered Kansas Street under the Interstate 55 bridge.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, March 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 624051.