Tornadoes and Hail in Arkansas, March 13, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
SURFACE LOW IN OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION...
WITH CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE AND TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW.

WILL BE AN ACTIVE EVENING FOR US...AS SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. DISCRETE CELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LINE
WILL KEEP A TORNADO THREAT OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNSET...AS
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED MORE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP...AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

BIG THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORM TONIGHT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. INITIAL MODE
OF CONVECTION WILL BE DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THESE SHOULD
COALESCE MORE INTO A LINE ONCE PAST THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL DISCRETE
CELLS COULD FORM AHEAD OF THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
THINGS BECOMING MORE LINEAR AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS AROUND/AFTER SUNSET. BEHIND THAT...
ELEVATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD POSE AN
ADDITIONAL HAIL THREAT BEFORE THINGS COME TO AN END.

COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE UPPER LOW
LAGGING A FEW HOURS BEHIND. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME TO AN END
BEFORE SUNRISE.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS COMING BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S...AND
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD HAVE A QUICK SHOT AT 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY COOLS THINGS BACK DOWN TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. FRIDAY WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS LATE TUESDAY...BUT WILL BE NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST
NEAR THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A SLOW SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THEN
COOLER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     54  75  56  79 /  80  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         53  80  59  83 /  70   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       50  75  54  75 /  80   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    52  77  56  79 /  80   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  76  58  80 /  80   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     56  78  60  81 /  80   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      51  78  56  79 /  60   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  75  55  76 /  80   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        54  74  56  78 /  80  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     54  75  58  81 /  80   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   51  77  53  79 /  80   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         52  74  54  79 /  80  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      54  74  57  79 /  80   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
827 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-140945-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-
CALHOUN-BRADLEY-DREW-
827 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL CROSS ARKANSAS TODAY...BRINGING STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS OF THE STATE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INITIAL STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED
AND WILL FEATURE LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND DAMAGING
WINDS TO A LESSER EXTENT. WITH TIME THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW
INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRESENT...A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS AROUND
AND TO THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR...AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF A TORNADO WOULD BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS IS ALREADY
SATURATED. ANY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A STRONG THUNDERSTORM COULD
CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING...OR COULD EXACERBATE AND
ONGOING RUNOFF ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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