Scattered thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front which moved through Middle Tennessee during the afternoon hours on December 28. Some of the storms produced large hail.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front which moved through Middle Tennessee during the afternoon hours on December 28. Some of the storms produced large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 28, 2:37 PM CST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 237 PM CST Wed Dec 28 2016 .DISCUSSION... Sunny skies this morning are giving way to mostly cloudy skies as cloud cover streams in from the approaching trough and cold front. Convection is beginning to develop along the MS River Valley currently, and will continue to spread east ahead of the cold front this evening and overnight. Models have the showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread as the evening progresses as well. In regards to strong to severe storm risks, some instability does move in to the mid state this evening and during the early overnight hours, however it is on the weak side attm. There is still plenty of shear aloft, and even though convection will be on the elevated side, some strong wind gusts and even some small hail can not be ruled out. The best shot at stronger storms should they develop looks to be around and south of I-40 and west of I-24 this evening. Showers and storms look to move through the area pretty fast overnight, and models are quick to clear out the area after fropa Thursday morning. 850mb winds will increase slightly after fropa as well, and the surface pressure gradient will remain strong. Northwest winds will be around 10 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph at times for some locations during Thursday morning, especially higher elevations. Thursday afternoon looks to see the strongest winds, where most areas are likely to see sustained northwest winds around 15 to 25 mph, and gusts to around 30 mph. Again, higher elevations may see winds slightly stronger per model guidance. Winds should calm down a bit overnight into Friday morning, but likely wont get below 10 mph until later on Friday. Continued CAA behind the front will cool off temps aloft quite a bit, and models are hinting at possible precip chances on the backside of the trough very early Friday morning. Put in mention of flurries for now along the northern Plateau as not all models are on board just yet. The next chance for precip will move in on Saturday ahead of another Midwest trough and cold front. Timing is just slightly off between models, however models agree that shortwave activity out in the southern and central Plains will prevent any cold air from moving over the mid state early in the week. Continued WAA will warm up temps above seasonal normals Sunday through Tuesday, with highs in the 60s on Monday. Unfortunately, the best shot at precip looks to be Saturday evening during the holiday festivities for the new year. Southwest flow aloft will continue into the mid part of next week, and with models slightly off with shortwave timing, chances for precip will continue through late Tuesday. Southwest flow will eventually come to an end as the very large closed upper low slides to the northeast along the US/CAN border. Models agree on the cold air coming in, but disagree on precip, so for now left out mention for the end of the long term next Wednesday. If precip were to occur with the cold 850mb temps, snow would be the likely precip type, so it appears our reign of above average temps will come to an end by late next week. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR conditions this afternoon will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR/LIFR cigs/vis this evening as showers and a few thunderstorms spread across airports along a quick moving cold front. Improvement back to VFR/MVFR expected by late in the TAF period. Southeast winds this morning will increase and become southerly this afternoon, then westerly/northwesterly after fropa this evening/tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 39 49 31 45 33 / 80 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 36 47 30 44 33 / 70 0 0 0 0 Crossville 41 43 28 37 28 / 80 10 10 0 0 Columbia 41 49 30 45 32 / 80 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 42 49 30 45 31 / 90 0 0 0 0 Waverly 37 47 30 44 34 / 70 0 0 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && DISCUSSION......Barnwell AVIATION........Shamburger
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1051 AM CST WED DEC 28 2016 TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-291700- STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON- HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH- JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON- MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD- COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES- 1051 AM CST WED DEC 28 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LINDEN TO PULASKI. A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SHAMBURGER
The Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 99 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:24 UTC.
6 hail, 1 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
Humphreys County emergency management received a report of quarter size hail 10 miles ESE of New Johnsonville.
CoCoRaHS station Dickson 5.8 NW reported up to nickel size hail fell for 6 minutes that covered the ground.
Nickel size hail reported in Charlotte.
A Twitter report indicated penny size hail fell 9 miles south of Collinwood.
Quarter size hail was reported by a trained spotter 6 miles south of Springfield.
The public reported quarter size hail 3 miles ESE of Loretto.
Lightning stuck near a 500 gallon propane tank and traveled underground, which ruptured the gas line, then traveled towards a home blowing a hole in the refrigerant line on the HVAC.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, December 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 671701, 671702, 671703, 671705, 671706, 671707, 671708.