A low pressure system moved northward west of the Aleutian Islands, bringing a cold front with strong cold air advection through the Western Aleutians and high winds behind the warm front in the central Bering. The low pressure system reached 938 mb just off the Kamchatka Peninsula.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A low pressure system moved northward west of the Aleutian Islands, bringing a cold front with strong cold air advection through the Western Aleutians and high winds behind the warm front in the central Bering. The low pressure system reached 938 mb just off the Kamchatka Peninsula.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 28, 4:08 PM AKST, 1 hour 48 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 408 PM AKST Wed Dec 28 2016 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... Two impactful storms to discuss today. The first is the upper level trough and associated surface low complex over southwest Alaska to south central Alaska that is supporting the snow that moved through Southcentral Alaska today. The other major impactful storm is the large deep low over the western Bering Sea with the associated front extending through the western Aleutians. The Bering Sea storm has a significant push of warm air into the Bering Sea today that will move over western Alaska tonight. Currently over the western mainland the low level air is quite cold and will support a brief period of freezing rain that will rapidly change to rain before changing back to snow as the cold air sweeps in with the cold front. Between the Bering storm and the low over the mainland is a ridge of high pressure that is resulting in clearing skies. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... The models are in excellent agreement with the major synoptic level features. Differences occur with respect to the QPF, though these are minor. The models are in good agreement with respect to inhibiting the push of warm air beyond Cook Inlet, holding it back over southwest Alaska and the Kenai Peninsula to Prince William Sound. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... Lingering snow showers over Southcentral Alaska will begin to taper off this evening from west to east, as the surface low over Prince William Sound weakens and tracks southeast into the gulf tonight. A blast of cold air will move in quickly behind this system tonight, causing favored gap wind areas along the coast to ramp up quickly and temperatures to decrease over inland areas. The focus of the forecast then shifts to Thursday, as a strong warm front currently surging along the southwest coast moves into southern Alaska. The warm front itself is expected to bring a brief period of light snow to most areas with little or no accumulation, but by Thursday night a strong cold front races through Cook Inlet and is expected to bring a period of widespread and heavy precipitation to much of the Mat-Su Valleys and Anchorage area. Models have trended a bit colder with this storm, and points from Anchorage northward will remain as snow for the duration of the storm. There will be an upslope/orographic component to the storm that will cause the front range of the Chugach and especially the southwest facing slopes of the Talkeetna mountains to see the higher snowfall amounts. Snowfall near Hatcher Pass should be the most significant, with lesser but still substantial accumulations at the lower elevations of the Mat-Su Valleys. Even though expected snowfall amounts may not hit warning criteria for all areas for this event, the impacts should be very similar. Given the similar impacts, a winter storm warning for snow has been issued for the Matanuska Valley Thursday evening through Friday morning, and a winter weather advisory for snow has been issued for the surrounding Anchorage area and Susitna Valley (from the parks highway eastward). One area of continued uncertainty centers on whether parts of Anchorage will see a period of wind off Turnagain Arm Thursday night, popping temperatures up above freezing and at the very least limiting snowfall totals even if precipitation stays as snow. Meanwhile, down on the Kenai Peninsula, a rain and snow mix north of Kenai should significantly limit accumulations while areas closer to Kachemak Bay should see things quickly switch over to rain. && .AVIATION... PANC...Light snow showers and patchy fog with marginal conditions will continue through this evening, followed by partial clearing and more VFR conditions overnight. However with a lack of mixing tonight and light northerly low level winds, there is some potential for patchy fog to remain over the inlet and possibly drift over some of the surrounding inland areas. A decaying front arriving from the Bering Sea via western AK will cause ceilings to lower Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... A strong warm front moves onshore tonight, with snow developing through the evening especially along and north of the Kuskokwim River where significant snow accumulations are possible. Immediately upon warm frontal passage, temperatures are expected to warm well into the 30s, even for inland locations. The period of rain in the Delta region may reach 12 hours before the cold front moves through and changes rain to snow before ending by late Thursday afternoon. For inland areas, rain will change to snow before ending from west to east Thursday evening. Given the expected heavy snow conditions preceding the rain, have opted to change the Freezing Rain Advisory for Kuskokwim Delta and Valley to Winter Weather Advisories for snow and freezing rain, and for the Bristol Bay region enough warm air (including latent heat release from heavier rain falling on exposed frozen surfaces) will be present to lessen the expected severity, though there could be brief and isolated impacts during the day on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)... Strong cold front continues to strengthen as it moves from the western Bering to the central Bering. High winds are occurring near the Central Aleutians as a mountaintop inversion has resulted in mountain wave activity, and this should continue into the mid-evening hours before ending as the cold front nears. The front will begin to weaken as it reaches the eastern half of the Bering late tonight, though it will still produce strong gales with storm-force gusts as it moves toward Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula coastal waters later Thursday. Ridging will build briefly Friday and Friday night over the central and eastern Bering as the next strong low pressure system spins up over the western Aleutians. With a continued strong pressure gradient between these two features, this system will likely produce storm-force winds from the Western Aleutians north and east through the northwestern half of the Bering Sea. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Friday Night through Wednesday)... On Friday night the trough and surface front (expected to bring heavy snow to portions of Southcentral) will rapidly exit to the east, with a quick and strong push of cold advection winds on the back side. Have increased winds, particularly for Whittier/Passage Canal, Prince William Sound and the northern Gulf. The westerly flow is most favorable for Whittier, so may see some wind gusts approach warning level (75 mph). Meanwhile, a rapidly strengthening low moving up from the Pacific to the far Western Aleutians, along with a separate downstream wave, will quickly amplify the pattern. A ridge will build over the eastern Bering Friday night and slide eastward over the mainland Saturday, phasing with a well established ridge over the Northeast Pacific. Previous guidance had indicated this ridge would hold strong over Mainland Alaska, relegating the active weather and impacts from deep lows to the Bering Sea and Aleutians. There is now a very definite trend toward weakening the ridge over Mainland Alaska as short-wave ride over top of it. This will allow a front sitting off the west coast Saturday to move onshore across Southwest Alaska Sunday and possible into Southcentral on Monday. Out west, deep storm systems will provide a steady dose of gale to storm force winds, with hurricane force gusts possible in cold advection near the primary low center. It looks like there will be a break in between systems early next week which will allow winds and seas to diminish, but the pattern will remain favorable for strong systems moving up from the Pacific as we head through next week. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Heavy Snow 145, High wind warning 187, Winter Weather Advisories 101 111 152 155. MARINE...Storm 175 176 177 178 185. Gales 130 131 155 165 170 172 173 174 179 180 181. Heavy freezing spray 130. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC LONG TERM...SB
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Adak ASOS measured 62 knots of wind. Surface pressure chart indicates winds met criteria.
St George ASOS measured a peak wind at 72 knots.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, December 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 670668, 670669.