Hail and Damaging Wind in South Carolina, June 30, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
159 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure currently in place over the Mid West will drift
slowly eastward toward the area by the end of the week. A slow
moving cold front will stall out south of the area before slowly
pushing northward and moving north of the area by the beginning of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday... We continue to make adjustments for
clouds, temperatures and POPS this afternoon. Stratus still hanging
tuff in some areas, but should continue to mix.

CAPE and DCAPE from SPC tools suggest active thunderstorm
afternoon/evening, as weak short waves cross the region, and
intercepts increasingly unstable air. Sounding profile look like
wind damaging episodes the primary hazard.

Convection should last into the evening before waning. Can not rule
out some fog and ceilings again, but we were not that aggressive.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 AM EDT Thursday: Upper trough axis moves east of the area
Friday. Zonal flow sets up by Saturday with a weak short wave moving
through the flow north of the area. A weak frontal boundary drops
into the area Friday and stalls over the area for Saturday. Despite
the boundary moving in, the low levels will be much drier on Friday
leading to meager instability. There will be enough instability and
low level forcing for isolated diurnal convection however. Precip
chances increase Saturday as low level moisture surges back in ahead
of a surface wave moving along the front. PoP trends will remain
mainly diurnal on Saturday, but convection could linger through the
night. Temps will remain a few degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Thursday: Zonal flow remains over the area as a
subtropical ridge builds across FL and into the Gulf of Mexico. Weak
short wave activity crosses the area in the zonal flow Sunday before
a stronger short wave moves into or crosses the area Monday and
Tuesday. The guidance is in some disagreement on the strength of
this short wave and its resultant speed. An additional short wave
drops into the area Wednesday on one model. On the other, the
stronger slowly moving short wave drops into the area. Either way,
it looks like there will be upper forcing and support for lift each
day.

At the surface, the frontal boundary remains across the area on
Sunday then lifts north on Monday. The GFS has a strong surface low
moving between the Great Lakes and OH valley on Tuesday, while the
ECMWF has a faster low moving off shore from that area Tuesday. Both
the ECMWF and GFS stall the trailing front across the area
Wednesday. Given the uncertainty, will go with a guidance blend
which keeps mainly scattered diurnal convection across the area each
day. While it's still too early to pin down the best period, heavy
rainfall and severe storms may be develop at some point. Temps start
the period near or a little below normal on Sunday rising into the
low to mid 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and the SC Sites:  Low stratus continues to waffle around
the region, lifting in some areas and more dense in others. Still
think with additional heating, mixing will occur, although it will
be offset to a certain degree by low level moisture.

For the Charlotte airfield, since the clouds are nicely tucked in,
we have moved and POP in the CLT TAF until this evening. Even with
the clouds meso scale guide continues to indicate the atmosphere
destabizing

Other POP timing adjustements were made as well for the remainder of
the TAF sites. We will continue monitor short term trends and adjust
as needed.

We have not gone at low with ceilings overnight, with slightly drier
air and a bit of mixing.

Outlook: Diurnally favored shra/tsra through the rest of the week,
with restrictions possible adjacent to said convection, as well as
each morning where moderate/heavy rainfall occurred previously.
Shra/tsra chances increase further Saturday into Sunday as another
cold front drops in from the north.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  90%     High  98%     High  87%     High  87%
KGSP       High 100%     High  96%     High  83%     High  98%
KAVL       High 100%     High  95%     Med   77%     High  90%
KHKY       High  95%     High  89%     High  82%     High  94%
KGMU       High 100%     High  97%     High  94%     High  98%
KAND       High 100%     High  97%     High  87%     High  87%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/TS
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG/TS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1253 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011700-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1253 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

SCZ011-301815-
ABBEVILLE SC-
153 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 151 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ABBEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ABBEVILLE.

HALF INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES.
CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3406 8246 3408 8248 3407 8250 3407 8253
      3413 8260 3422 8227 3417 8224 3411 8226
      3407 8232 3406 8236
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 249DEG 6KT 3407 8244

JMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

SCZ011-301845-
ABBEVILLE SC-
212 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN
ABBEVILLE COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 211 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL NEAR ABBEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ABBEVILLE.

HALF INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND EXTREME RAINFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES.
CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3408 8247 3414 8260 3431 8231 3428 8231
      3425 8227 3421 8224 3416 8224 3414 8225
      3411 8226 3407 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 233DEG 16KT 3420 8239

JMP