Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 30, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC ISSUED BY
NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
804 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough will push a cold front through the region today and
tomorrow.  The front will stall just to the south of the area by
Saturday, but then will lift slowly back north late in the weekend
into the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 445 PM EDT...Water vapor imagery indicates a subtle
impulse shifting across the Tennessee Valley and upper Gulf Coast
States. This feature will provide a source of slightly enhanced lift
as it encroaches on our area, where SBCAPE values are analyzed at
1500-2500 J/kg, and DCAPE 800-1200 J/kg. Damaging winds and large
hail are the primary concerns with the storms that develop in this
environment, although torrential rain and frequent lightning will
be noted. Meso models depict evolution similar to that yesterday
evening, when outflows continued to initiate new convection until
a couple hours after sunset. So our revised PoPs will reflect a
peak around that time, and the fact that the models are depicting
best coverage over the ern half of the CWFA.

We will continue the activity into the night time hours, somewhat
similar to Wednesday night, before activity wanes with passage of
the upper air feature and overturning of atmosphere.

Fog and stratus are expected to develop overnight where heavy rain
falls this aftn/evening.

For Friday we have gone with warmer temperatures, per guide,
and limited our thunderstorm chances to a narrow window in the
afternoon, and especially along the less side trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday: Upper trough axis and surface cold front
will be pushing east of the area as we start the short term. The
frontal boundary will stall to our south on Saturday as the Canadian
upper low lifts northeast and a shortwave pushes off the Central
Rockies into the Central Plains. The surface system associated with
the Plains shortwave will stretch across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys,
merging with the stalled Southeast front, and providing focus for
convection to pick back up again through the short term as flow
aloft transitions to zonal. The boundary will slide slowly back
north as the Plains shortwave pushes east, with modest instability -
800-1200 J/kg sbCAPE - returning to the area Saturday. Should see a
diurnal trend through Saturday night, but with the Plans shortwave
moving into the mid-Mississippi Valley on Sunday, should see an
enhancement to the diurnal pops for Sunday afternoon, with likely
pops over the mountains and healthy chance elsewhere. High temps
through the short term should be a couple of degrees above seasonal
normals, with a larger departure for overnight lows where the
increasing moisture will not allow for much of a cool-down overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday: Zonal flow will continue across the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys as a subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic continues to build west toward FL as the shortwave
continues to work its way east up the Ohio Valley. Several
differences continue in models' handling of this shortwave with the
GFS a little more robust especially with the associated surface low.
Should see a fairly significant increase in convection for
Independence Day. Along with the decent instability (sbCAPEs between
1000-2000 J/kg), we have some minimal low-level shear as well which
may help to organize convection. Overall and unfortunately, it looks
like a pretty wet and occasionally stormy day/evening, so residents
of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia may want to be
prepared for impacts to Independence Day festivities.

The wave pushes east on Tuesday, with the ECMWF keeping an open wave
and pushing it offshore early in the day, but the stronger GFS
closing it off and not pushing it through for another 24 hours.
Quite a bit of uncertainty here obviously but since the ECMWF keeps
a trailing front across our area anyway, both have similar sensible
weather impacts with enhanced diurnal convection continuing through
mid-week. As would be typical with enhanced summertime convection,
heavy rain and at least isolated severe storms will be possible.

The subtropical ridge continues to build westward, with intermittent
shortwaves riding along the northern edge of the ridge. Differences
between the operational guidance increase through the middle of next
week so have trended close to climo on pops, but with a slight
increasing trend for temperatures, rising into the mid-90s, as
thicknesses increase.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A lingering chance of TSRA exists across the
area this evening as outflow boundaries generate new updrafts from
remnant afternoon instability. The chance however is too low to
mention at KHKY and KAND. Overnight some guidance members (mainly
WRF derivatives incl. NAM) produce low stratus and fog across much
of the area. Unfavorable profiles suggest fog is really only of
concern where heavy rain fell this afternoon, but enough warm
upglide continues aloft to buy into their depictions of low stratus.
A few TSRA could develop Fri aftn, but lapse rates are less
favorable overall, so chance of one impacting a TAF site is too low
to mention.

Outlook: Diurnal convection expected to return to typical summertime
coverage Saturday.  Another series of fronts, and potential weak
low pressure systems riding along the fronts, appears on tap
for Sunday through Tuesday.  This period may offer an enhanced
thunderstorms possibilities.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z KCLT
  High  99%     High  84%     High  88%     Low   16%     KGSP
High  98%     High  88%     High  96%     Low   16%     KAVL
High  87%     Med   70%     High  85%     Low   16%     KHKY
High  91%     High  85%     High  93%     Low   16%     KGMU
High  98%     High  92%     High  95%     Low   16%     KAND
High  93%     Med   67%     Med   76%     Low   16%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with
the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble
forecasts are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...TS/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...TS/Wimberley

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1253 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011700-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1253 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
739 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

SCZ014-010015-
CHESTER SC-
739 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 738 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHESTER STATE PARK...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHESTER...CHESTER STATE PARK...LEEDS...CORNWELL AND BLACKSTOCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 8114 3457 8139 3458 8143 3462 8142
      3481 8112 3461 8093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 244DEG 23KT 3462 8132

WP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
741 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

NCZ508-510-010015-
GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-EASTERN POLK NC-
741 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
EASTERN POLK AND CENTRAL RUTHERFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 740 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUTHERFORDTON...SPINDALE...GREEN HILL...MILL SPRING...UNION MILLS AND
GREEN CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3521 8207 3530 8221 3552 8200 3540 8187
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 229DEG 20KT 3529 8207

WP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
754 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

NCZ501-502-010045-
GREATER CALDWELL NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS NC-
754 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 754 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DARBY...OR 9 MILES EAST OF BLOWING ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PATTERSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 8152 3610 8150 3609 8147 3609 8145
      3607 8144 3607 8141 3605 8139 3604 8140
      3604 8138 3593 8160 3604 8169 3612 8161
      3612 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 229DEG 10KT 3609 8152

WP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
758 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

NCZ068-508-010030-
CLEVELAND NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-
758 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND EAST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 830
PM EDT...

AT 758 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BOSTIC...OR NEAR FOREST CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOREST CITY...LAWNDALE...POLKVILLE...ELLENBORO...BOSTIC...
KINGSTOWN...SUNSHINE AND CAROLEEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 8179 3536 8189 3556 8174 3539 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 229DEG 10KT 3535 8181

WP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
809 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

GAZ010-NCZ062-010115-
RABUN GA-MACON NC-
809 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL RABUN AND EASTERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 808 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS 6 MILES NORTH OF DILLARD...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF FRANKLIN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

RAINFALL OF UP TO 3 INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE 630PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...DILLARD...SKY VALLEY...ELLIJAY...SCALY
MOUNTAIN...CULLASAJA...OTTO AND WHITESIDE MOUNTAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 8331 3523 8329 3523 8326 3519 8322
      3516 8322 3513 8319 3511 8318 3509 8314
      3508 8314 3506 8317 3504 8314 3494 8345
      3499 8351 3500 8348 3500 8352 3503 8354
      3505 8356 3505 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 239DEG 10KT 3506 8343

WP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
819 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

NCZ068-504-506-508-010100-
CLEVELAND NC-GREATER BURKE NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-
EASTERN MCDOWELL NC-
819 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL BURKE...SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND
AND NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 818 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTH OF BOSTIC...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF FOREST CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...MORGANTON...SPINDALE...POLKVILLE...
ELLENBORO...BOSTIC...CASAR...SOUTH MOUNTAINS STATE PARK AND GREEN
HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3559 8152 3556 8153 3555 8151 3527 8178
      3540 8213 3575 8174
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 221DEG 12KT 3548 8183

WP