Damaging Winds in South Carolina, June 25, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
410 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift slowly through the area tonight and Sunday
before dissipating. Another front will impact the area beginning
Tuesday...becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday then dissipating.
Atlantic high pressure will rebuild Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
This Evening...Warm conditions will persist within a west/northwest
downsloping wind regime that helps pin a seabreeze closer to the
coast. Strong sfc heating along with deepening moisture ahead of a
cold front shifting into the Tri-County area will continue to result
in hot and humid conditions for much of the area. Heat index values
between 105-109 degrees will continue for most areas south of
Colleton County where afternoon temps have peaked in the mid/upper
90s. Additionally, thunderstorm activity has been slow to develop
where sfc dewpts remain in the mid 70s near the seabreaze along
coastal South Carolina. This level of moisture along with temps in
the mid 90s should support Heat Advisory conditions for a few more
hours. A Heat Advisory will therefore remain in effect until 7 pm
this evening for areas mentioned above, including all of southeast
Georgia.

As we head into early evening hours the main weather concern will be
the possibility of isolated severe weather associated with pulse
type thunderstorms. Mid-lvl ridging should gradually retreat to the
southwest as a series of mid-lvl impulses and sfc cold front round
its eastern periphery over the southeastern United States. The setup
will favor an unstable atmosphere along and ahead of a sfc cold
front shifting over the area this evening. Although shear is
marginal, SBCAPE ranging between 3000-4000 J/kg, DCAPE between 1300-
1500 J/kg, lifted index values between -5 to -7 C along with modest
mid lvl lapse rates and PWATS between 1.5 to 1.8 inches support
isolated to scattered thunderstorms, a few of which could produce
strong/damaging wind gusts and small hail. At this time, the overall
threat of severe weather appears highest where the southward moving
cold front interacts with the seabreeze. This should place the
threat of a stronger or severe thunderstorm closer to the coast in
southeast South Carolina and possibly over locations along and away
from the coast in southeast Georgia. Timing of the event remains
through evening hours, until 7-8 pm.

Tonight...The cold front will advance slowly south through the area
overnight while high pressure wedges inland across the Carolinas and
into Georgia in its wake. A more stable air mass will gradually
overspread the area from north to south, allowing convection to
dwindle between sunset and midnight. Although the threat of severe
weather will decline with sunset this evening, a slight chance to
chance of showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for
central and southern counties closer to the proximity of the cold
front. Overnight low temps should cool into the low/mid 70s behind
the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday: A broad upper ridge will remain positioned over the
central United States while surface high pressure sits off the New
England coast. A diffuse frontal boundary will be pushing into the
southern half of the area with slightly cooler and drier air
moving in from the north. This will yield a high temperature map
ranging from the lower 90s north to middle 90s south. The
prevailing northeast flow will produce the best inland movement of
the sea breeze across southeast GA. This is also where better
low-level instability and boundary layer moisture will be present.
We therefore show scattered showers and tstms, mainly in the
afternoon, across far southern areas with lower coverage farther
north. Severe potential appears nominal though an isolated severe
storm is possible.

Monday: Temperatures will rebound slightly as the in-situ front
dissipates and Atlantic high pressure begins to rebuild. Dewpoints
will likely mix out during the afternoon so only isolated
convection is expected.

Tuesday: Likely the most active day as the upper ridge flattens
and a vort moves into the area during the day. A surface cold
front is progged to move into the area from the west in the
afternoon. Fairly deep westerly flow will precede the front so it
may be dry for a portion of the day until the front draws closer.
We therefore delayed the best pops until the afternoon. No
convective indices are particularly impressive so the overall
severe threat is low, but we could see some locally heavy
rainfall. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged and still
revolves around the front that is expected to push into the area and
become nearly stationary mid week. The front is then progged to
remain in the vicinity of the forecast area through late in the week
and will serve as a source of improved moisture and low level
convergence to support increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. For now, the forecast features mid to high range
chance pops each day with lingering pops through the overnight. As
the time draws closer and confidence grows in the placement of the
lingering front, more detail can be put into the forecast for which
periods are most likely to see the best rain chances. Highs will be
around 90 each day with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There will be an increasing chance of flight restrictions at both
terminals this evening due to showers/thunderstorms that develop
along a southward moving cold front that interacts with a seabreeze.
Tempo MVFR cigs/vsbys are currently in place from 19z-21z at the SAV
Have maintained VCTS at CHS starting around 19z and at SAV starting
around 21z. Tempo MVFR or lower cigs/vsbys will likely need to be
added once convective trends become more clear. Thunderstorms could
produce strong winds and heavy rain. There is also another risk of
MVFR cigs at the CHS terminal late tonight behind the cold front,
but confidence remains too low to include in the taf at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Low end chances for direct impacts from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms on Sunday. Chances then will
increase Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
This Evening and Tonight: A cold front will slip into our South
Carolina waters this evening, making it to Georgia waters late.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will be possible along/near the
front, some possibly strong with damaging winds. High pressure will
then wedge inland and push south/southeast in wake of the cold
front. As a result, southerly flow at or below 10-15 kt should begin
to back to the east/southeast late. Seas will range between 2-3 ft
over most waters.

Easterly winds Sunday will gradually shift to southeast on Monday,
then south to southwest Tuesday and thereafter as Atlantic high
pressure rebuilds. The strongest winds will be along the coast
during the afternoon when a 10-15 kt sea breeze develops.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ040-042-
     047>051.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/JRL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
544 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

SCZ045-050-252230-
INLAND BERKELEY SC-CHARLESTON SC-
544 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 543 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ANDREWS...OR 18 MILES WEST OF GEORGETOWN...
MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...STRONG WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH AND EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND
           LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...EXPECT MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OJBECTS. ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD
           CEASE. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MCCLELLANVILLE...AWENDAW...JAMESTOWN...SANTEE COASTAL RESERVE...CAPE
ISLAND...LIGHTHOUSE ISLAND...HUGER AND HAMPTON PLANTATION STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3307 7931 3298 7934 3297 7952 3308 7989
      3338 7980 3332 7974 3332 7970 3330 7966
      3327 7956 3324 7950 3325 7948 3323 7948
      3324 7946 3322 7945 3316 7937 3314 7927
      3311 7927
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 346DEG 26KT 3346 7959