Strong instability led to widespread thunderstorm development along the seabreeze.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILM wrote it up.
Strong instability led to widespread thunderstorm development along the seabreeze.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 2:17 PM EST, 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 317 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure along the coast will continue to break down tonight, allowing a cold front near the Great Lakes to move south into Virgina. The front will remain stalled across Virginia this weekend as it slowly weakens. This will create slightly cooler temperatures and good thunderstorm chances over the weekend. High pressure will build back into the area beginning next Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 315 PM Friday...An unstable and uncapped airmass across the eastern Carolinas is producing thunderstorms this afternoon, some strong to severe. Activity developed first in the South Carolina sandhills and more recently along the seabreeze front. Shear is weak but instability is large with model analysis CAPE as large as 2000 J/kg inland and 4000 J/kg at the coast. Model vorticity and water vapor satellite imagery do not show any significant disturbances aloft, implying this convective activity is entirely supported by diurnal destabilization and should decay rather quickly this evening. Forecast PoPs as high as 80 percent across the Pee Dee counties for the next 1-2 hours drop to 20 percent by 8 PM. Weakened Bermuda High pressure well offshore plus the Piedmont Trough over the interior Carolinas will maintain a warm and humid southwest flow across the area overnight. A disturbance aloft will pass across southern North Carolina between midnight and 3 AM. I have PoPs ramping back up to 30 percent late this evening and remaining there overnight, anticipating scattered showers or storms following this feature eastward. Forecast lows are in the mid-upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Friday...Surface low pressure will pass well north of the U.S./Canadian border this weekend, but will drag a cold front as far south as Virginia. The associated upper level trough has pushed the Bermuda High well offshore, and as shortwave disturbances aloft rotate through the mean trough position, waves of showers and thunderstorms should be the result. Although diurnal destabilization will certainly help increase the coverage and intensity of thunderstorms through the weekend, this won't be an entirely diurnally driven event. The best confluence of instability with upper level energy should occur on Saturday where we have forecast PoPs as high as 70 percent. SPC again has us in a marginal severe weather risk Saturday, mainly for strong downburst winds. Precip and clouds will help hold high temps down significantly compared to the past few days, and highs on Saturday and Sunday should only reach the upper 80s to around 90. Overnight lows may also be a bit cooler due to the convective overturning of the atmosphere and rainfall: 73-76 degrees. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 PM Friday...Daytime temperatures will be quite seasonable through the period while nighttime lows will average a bit on the mild side. The bigger story could end up being the degree to which the weather is unsettle for a good portion of the long term. Monday finds the area between two upper ridges and a piedmont trough at the surface. This is usually a good setup for not only more convective activity than 'normal' for July but also vorticity-laden flow that can keep storms in the forecast overnight. This not only holds true into Tuesday through Thursday but even moreso as the weakness in the height field is strengthened by increasing troughiness into the Northeast. From there models start to diverge a bit. Eastern troughiness will continue and our weather will likely stay unsettled Friday. Some models have the trough progressing a bit which could mean a similar forecast as the days prior. The GFS has been fairly insistent that the trough continues to deepen and thus locally rain chances increase even further. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 18Z...Thunderstorms developing inland in force as we expected and this will be the theme of the forecast. Expect VFR conditions to go downhill to brief IFR conditions during the activity. Regarding timing, started at 18z inland and just a little later based on trends at the coast. Some uncertainty overnight as some global as well as high resolution guidance paints another round of convection. I addressed by adding some VCSH and MVFR prevailing inland. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR in isolated Aftn/Eve tstms with some periods of MVFR/IFR in stronger thunderstorms mainly Saturday and Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 PM Friday...The two features on the weather map influencing our weather include the Bermuda High (now well offshore) and the Piedmont Trough over the interior Carolinas. Southwesterly flow is well established in between these two systems. Outside of temporary thunderstorm outflows southwesterly winds should continue through the night. Near the coast the seabreeze has increased wind speeds to a solid 15 knots with gusts of 20 knots or more. In a typical summer day seabreeze winds increase in speed until 6 PM, however fairly widespread thunderstorm activity inland should destroy the inland-to-offshore temperature contrasts that fuel the seabreeze, allowing winds to die away more quickly this evening. Having said that, just the synoptic gradient should support winds near 15 knots overnight with 3-4 foot seas. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Friday...Low pressure well north of the U.S./Canadian border will drag a cold front as far south as Virginia this weekend. While our wind directions won't change, the upper level weather pattern will promote more showers and thunderstorms than we've seen in days. This storminess should develop even across the coastal waters especially Saturday and Saturday night. Outside of storms southwesterly winds 10-15 knots are expected through the period with 2-3 foot seas. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 PM Friday...Though the pattern aloft will be one that is conducive to fairly unsettled/stormy weather the surface features in place will keep wind and wave conditions pretty typical for July. Southwesterly flow resulting from the piedmont trough and Bermuda high will be fairly steady as will seas generally in the 2 to 3 ft range. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...SHK
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</html>SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
305 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016
SCZ032-151945-
FLORENCE SC-
305 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2016
...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FLORENCE COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM EDT...
AT 305 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SARDIS...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF UP 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLORENCE...LAKE CITY...TIMMONSVILLE...PAMPLICO...QUINBY...SARDIS...
NEW HOPE...EVERGREEN...FRIENDFIELD...MARS BLUFF...CLAUSSEN...
EFFINGHAM...CARTERSVILLE...HYMAN...SCRANTON...COWARD...OLANTA...
CENTRAL CROSSROADS...
HEALTH SOUTH REHABILITATION HOSPITAL AND MCLEOD REGIONAL MEDICAL
CENTER.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 20 NEAR MILE MARKER 141.
INTERSTATE 95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 148 AND 166...
AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 169 AND 175.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.
&&
LAT...LON 3425 7978 3425 7976 3429 7971 3429 7968
3431 7967 3430 7962 3423 7955 3418 7957
3413 7952 3408 7954 3404 7951 3400 7952
3396 7948 3387 7982 3389 7985 3388 7994
3395 7997 3399 7989 3408 8003 3408 8006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 232DEG 35KT 3396 7991
MBBThe Wilmington radar (KLTX), 39 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:28 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Power lines were reported down in road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Carolina in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in South Carolina, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 649752.