Tornado and Hail in Kansas, July 15, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
229 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...Updated Short Term and Long Term sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2016

Potentially significant severe weather event is about to unfold
across far western Kansas. At 19Z, we were tracking an old outflow
boundary extending from just south of GLD to just south of
LaCrosse. This boundary was starting to stall out with late
afternoon insolation setting in. This boundary, in addition to a
triple point area just south of GLD, will be the focus for
thunderstorm development. In fact, storms were already underway at
the triple point southwest of GLD. Additional storms were starting
to form in the well-mixed hot airmass in Baca Co. We fully expect
a severe MCS, potentially signficant, to roll southeast through
much of southwest KS through the evening. There may be a couple of
80-mph wind gust/damage reports in this setup along with
(initially early) golfball hail reports. The very damaging wind
threat is of moist concern, however. The MCS will likely clear
southwest KS in the 04-07z time frame, but not before resulting in
some widespread 0.50 to 1.00 inch rainfall amounts. The forward-
propagating tendency of the MCS would most likely prevent
excessive rainfall in this event.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2016

Not much emphasis on the Long Term given quieter weather regime
through much of this period and all the focus on the more
important near term severe weather threat. Looking at the long
term global models, they all still agree on a 600 decameter 500mb
high settling in through much of the week which will result in
persistent daytime highs around 100 each day and lows generally in
the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2016

A severe MCS is forecast to move southeast across southwest KS
this evening, which will most likely impact GCK and DDC terminals.
HYS will probably be glanced by the MCS, but will include VCTS for
a few hours there, too. Very strong winds may occur at both GCK
and DDC terminals with the thunderstorms this evenings, perhaps
briefly in excess of 45 or 50 knots. The thunderstorm activity
will likely clear the region in the 03-06z time frame with VFR
resuming and a gradual shift in wind to the east and southeast by
Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  94  73 100 /  70  10  10  10
GCK  66  95  72 100 /  70  10  10  10
EHA  65  98  72 101 /  60  10  10  10
LBL  66  98  73 102 /  70  10  10  10
HYS  66  91  73  99 /  40  10  10  10
P28  68  94  74 100 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1132 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-161645-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1132 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016 /1032 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING, WITH POTENTIALLY WIDELY SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
AND VERY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY FIRST DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS, THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY MATURE AND GROW INTO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL INCLUDE
AREAS BETWEEN THE COLORADO BORDER AND HIGHWAY 283 FROM A SCOTT
CITY LATITUDE IN THE NORTH DOWN TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORMS SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 283 CORRIDOR TO THE
COLORADO BORDER.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

UMSCHEID

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
346 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

KSZ084-152145-
MORTON KS-
346 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORTON COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 346 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF STONINGTON...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELKHART...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RICHFIELD AND WILBURTON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3736 10204 3738 10171 3700 10166 3706 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 245DEG 10KT 3717 10209

UMSCHEID

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
404 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

KSZ043-152200-
SCOTT KS-
404 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...

AT 404 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM VERY
NEAR SCOTT CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL TO NICKEL SIZE IS LIKELY.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCOTT CITY...GRIGSTON AND SHALLOW WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3842 10111 3860 10097 3850 10069 3828 10080
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 303DEG 16KT 3848 10087

TURNER