Strong instability initiated widespread thunderstorms along the Piedmont Trough, resulting in numerous reports of wind damage.
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The episode as NWS ILM wrote it up.
Strong instability initiated widespread thunderstorms along the Piedmont Trough, resulting in numerous reports of wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 6:40 PM EST, 19 hours earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 740 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure along the coast will break down over the next two days, allowing a cold front to move south from the Great Lakes and stall across Virginia this weekend. This will create slightly cooler temperatures and good thunderstorm chances. Drier conditions will return early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 530 PM Thursday...Have cancelled the heat advisory for all counties as all obs now show that we are well below criteria. Have also updated pops to show no further precip this evening for virtually all the forecast area as sea breeze related convection has all but ended. A few showers are still lingering in Williamsburg County, but these should fade shortly. Relevant portion of previous discussion from earlier this afternoon follows: The Bermuda High, despite having weakened over the past 24 hours, still extends a surface ridge axis westward across Florida and continues to feed hot and humid air across the Carolinas. The more abrupt change has occurred aloft where yesterday's 500 mb ridge is now located much farther offshore. Southwesterly mid and upper level flow is increasing over the Carolinas, and the increase in thunderstorm coverage compared to yesterday is probably directly related to the breakdown of this ridge aloft. 500 mb heights should continue to fall overnight as the trough extending from the Great Lakes down the Mississippi Valley develops. Any convective development overnight will likely occur offshore where surface-based parcels will be most buoyant. Winds just 1000 feet off the surface should remain around 25 knots overnight which is typically enough to keep a strong nocturnal inversion from developing. Forecast lows range from around 80 on the coast to 75-77 inland. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...A series of weak upper level disturbances will move through the broad trough over the eastern United States Friday and Saturday. Given the deeply humid and unstable airmass still in place, the result should be good coverage of showers and thunderstorms both days. Our forecast is for a 40-50 percent chance on Friday, and 50-70 percent on Saturday. Storm-total precipitation will vary widely, but 1.0 to 1.5 inches is our forecast areal average Friday through Saturday. The additional cloud cover and precipitation should hold highs down several degrees from what we've experienced over the past week: mainly mid 90s on Thursday and lower 90s on Friday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Thursday...Typical summertime weather for the first half of the extended as Bermuda ridging sits offshore. Temperatures will be near seasonable values for highs as broad troughing limits thickness values, but well above normal for mins thanks to persistent warm SW flow at night. The warmest day is likely to be Monday when the trough retreats and mid-level ridging expands from the west, but still temps will be only slightly above climo norms. Sun-Tue will also feature scattered aftn convection as a front dissipates to the north, with Sunday expected to be the most active day of the three. Late Tue into Wed, a strong vorticity lobe digs into the area driving a strong trough into the northeast. At the surface, a cold front will cross into the Carolinas and then stall into Thursday. This will create slightly cooler temperatures but with better chances for convection, and Wednesday into Thursday may be quite active as strong upper forcing interacts with a very humid and unstable airmass south of the front. Will carry mid-CHC pop for the end of the time period, with the limiting factor being that it is D6/D7. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 00Z...Thunderstorms early this evening are well S of KFLO with other isolated light showers between KFLO and the coast. All convection will dissipate later this evening, with winds remaining light SW overnight. This and 25kt boundary layer winds should provide sufficient mixing to prevent fog formation overnight. Some models are suggesting the possibility of showers developing along the immediate coast overnight. Confidence is low however. After sunrise there will will be a slight veering of winds to the WSW, but SSW winds will develop by late morning/early afternoon. Thunderstorms are again possible along the coast by mid-late morning. this activity should develop further inland away from the coast as the afternoon progresses. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR in isolated Aftn/Eve tstms with some periods of MVFR/IFR in stronger thunderstorms mainly Saturday and Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 530 PM Thursday...Thunderstorms over the waters have faded for the evening and have updated the forecast to reflect a dry overnight period. Forecast otherwise remains the same. Relevant portion of forecast from earlier this afternoon follows: The Bermuda High has weakened but still extends a ridge axis westward across Florida. With a Piedmont Trough in place across the interior Carolinas the pressure gradient will support southwest winds of 15 to occasionally 20 knots overnight, driving an increase in sea heights to 3-4 feet. While the weather should remain dry this evening and overnight, thunderstorms could redevelop late tonight as inland wind directions turn a little more westerly, increasing convergence across the coastal waters. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...The Bermuda High will weaken further as a trough of low pressure dangles southward from Canada into the eastern United States. While the surface cold front is not expected to make it this far south, the coverage of thunderstorms should increase substantially Friday into Saturday as temperatures aloft cool and a series of upper level disturbances move overhead. Surface winds will remain southwesterly near 15 knots, with 3 to occasionally 4 foot seas expected. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM Thursday...Bermuda ridging remains the dominant feature through early next week, although in a somewhat weakened state. This persists SW winds over the waters, but with a weak gradient in place, speeds will be just around 10 kts, up to 15 kts at times. A cold front will approach Tuesday night. This will pinch the gradient and cause winds to begin to climb late in the period, becoming widespread 15 kts while maintaining a SW direction. Seas will be formed primarily this period by a 2ft/9sec SE swell, although a residual SW 5 sec wave will remain on Sunday, and wave heights are forecast to be 2-3 ft, with more 3 fters expected on Sunday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...MRR MARINE...TRA/JDW
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 516 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-152130- ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER- INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK- COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION- WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN- COASTAL GEORGETOWN- 516 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AMZ250-252-254-256-152130- COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM- 516 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The Columbia radar (KCAE), 102 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:40 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was reported down on Indian Branch Road near the intersection with Oates Highway. The time was estimated based on radar data.
A tree was reported down on N Center Road. The time was estimated based on radar data.
A tree was reported down on N Governor Williams Highway. The time was estimated based on radar data.
Three trees were reported down on Flatnose Road. The time was estimated based on radar data.
Six trees were reported down on Mont Clare Road. The time was estimated by radar data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Carolina in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in South Carolina, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 649749, 649748, 649747, 649750, 649751.