Local and diurnal effects produced another significant round of shower and thunderstorm activity mainly across western and southern PR. This activity lead to river and small stream flooding, which resulted in several rivers going out of its banks producing flash flooding and mudslides.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
Local and diurnal effects produced another significant round of shower and thunderstorm activity mainly across western and southern PR. This activity lead to river and small stream flooding, which resulted in several rivers going out of its banks producing flash flooding and mudslides.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 13, 1:58 PM AST, 18 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 158 PM AST Sun Nov 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS...easterly trade winds with moisture and troughiness will continue in the local area with scattered showers. A cold front is likely to drop into the forecast area next weekend to increase shower activity and lower temperatures a few degrees. At upper levels...High pressure will dominate the Caribbean Sea until Friday night. A moderately strong trough will move off the Atlantic coast of the United States this Wednesday. A low will cut-off Thursday night or Friday and drop south causing the sub- tropical jet to dip within 80-160 miles of Puerto Rico by Sunday. At mid levels...High pressure over the Caribbean Sea will become centered over Saint Thomas by Wednesday. A low will form as a trough leaves the Atlantic coast of the United States near Washington DC and dip to as close as 31 north Friday through Sunday. Mid-level moisture is quite limited except for a boundary-layer passage on Saturday. At lower levels...A weakening trough/tropical wave near 52 west will approach the Lesser Antilles early this week causing local flow to remain mainly easterly. Low pressure just off of the Florida coast will move quickly north in the western Atlantic. Moderately strong high pressure will become stalled over the eastern coast of the Untied States Thursday while that low pressure returns to the south in the vicinity of 50 west. This and the mid level low mentioned above will cause a cold front to move into the forecast area on Saturday with increased moisture and shower activity. && .DISCUSSION...Moisture continued in easterly flow causing showers to form from Humacao to Toa Baja. Some areas will receive more than one inch in a narrow band. Other showers formed along the Cordillera Central from Mayaguez to Coamo. Up to now thunderstorms had not been observed. Easterly flow will continue and prevailing moisture will drive early morning passing showers as well as more active convection over higher terrain and areas of local convergence during the afternoons. A few thunderstorms will also remain possible. Moisture continues over the area through Monday, decreases slightly the first half of the work week and then increases through Saturday with the approach of a cold front. The driest weather of the next 10 days is promised Monday morning of next week when precipitable water drops below 1 inch. This is a likely scenario, but confidence in the models is medium-low. The GFS has changed from a strong trough deepening over the western Caribbean to a strong tropical low advancing on Hispaniola late in the 15 day period to a tropical low moving into the Pacific (13/06z run) and back to a weak tropical low that approaches Jamaica. This leads to considerable uncertainty as to whether the features necessary to bring the cold front this far south will materialize. That said, although these are considerable changes for the western Caribbean, they have not been particularly significant for the local area as moisture and modest instability will continue to bring scattered showers and warm temperatures though much of the week. && .AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA will continue to impact the flying area of TJSJ/TJPS/TJBQ/TJMZ for the rest of the afternoon hours. Mtn top obscd and tempo MVFR conds possible through 22z. Streamers off the USVI will continue to create mainly VCSH with possible -RA at TIST. Mainly VFR conditions expected after 23z through at least 14/16z. ESE low level winds are expected to become ENE after 14/00z around 9-15 kts. However, light and variable winds are expected at sfc overnight. && .MARINE...Seas will continue to diminish slowly through Monday, increase slightly and then decrease until Friday. The approach of a cold front will increase winds and seas, but small craft advisories are no longer as certain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 79 87 78 87 / 40 40 40 40 STT 77 86 78 86 / 40 40 40 40 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && 13/12
The San Juan radar (TJUA), 118 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:52 UTC.
3 heavy rain, 2 flood, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Person trapped in their car by water from the Culebrinas river on highway PR-418 in Coloso Adentro.
Mudslide along PR-512 in sector Guaraguao and sector El Palmar.
Mudslide along road PR-511, km 16.2 in Barrio Anon, Las Mesas sector.
Urban flooding was reported along road PR-116, km 8.4.
Guayo river was reported out of its banks near sector Agustinillo.
Mudslide was reported along road PR-116, km 9.6.
River out of its banks in sector Arus. Two families were affected by this event. The houses were located in Street 2 and street 1, km 118.8 respectively.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 665801, 665802, 665872, 665873, 665874, 665875, 665876.