Rip Current in Puerto Rico, November 12, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
211 PM AST Sat Nov 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...East southeast flow will turn east northeast to
northeast by Monday. A weak shearline just north and northwest will
hold moisture over the area, but overall moisture will diminish
through Wednesday. No major features are expected through late
next week.

At upper levels...High pressure over the western and central
Caribbean will shift over the area and ridge northward.

At mid levels...High pressure over the Greater Antilles will
become oriented toward the northeast-southwest Tuesday through
Wednesday and remain over or south of the area through mid week
the following week. Mid levels will have limited moisture and
light flow through the next 10 days.

At lower levels...Low pressure to the south and a weak ridge
across the sub-tropical Atlantic will continue through next week
with moderate trade wind flow. A broad trough over the western
tropical Atlantic on Monday will move westward, but low pressure
developing north of Hispaniola on Thursday will absorb it as it
moves through the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers have formed over the southwestern portion of
the island over higher terrain. High clouds have blocked some of
the heating in western Puerto Rico and further development may be
delayed and diminished. More showers are expected however as
moisture continues at fairly rich levels. The 12/12z sounding came
in at 2.04 inches and this is up for 24 hours, even though it is
down for the last 12 hours.

Low level flow will gradually become more northeasterly. The GFS
has been changing its solution and the latest solution may not
verify. Nevertheless the boundary to the north does approach the
area even as the moisture with it is now being depicted as
declining. The GFS is also developing a weak low just above the
surface that will also help anchor the boundary just north of us
for a while. With no major features and shifting model solutions
the best forecast is for scattered showers becoming more prevalent
on the north coast early next week. Slightly cooler temperatures
during the day are also expected in the greater San Juan
Metropolitan area. Afternoon convection will continue at reduced
levels.

As a result of the removal of a strongly digging long wave trough
over the western Caribbean, the GFS is now strongly developing a
tropical storm in the southwest Caribbean. This feature seems to
be a more reasonable solution.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions to prevail through the forecast
period. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA focus has changed more to the western
interior/southwest quadrant of PR. Therefore the flying area
impacted should be between TJPS/TJMZ. Streamers developing off the
USVI created VCSH and tempo -RA during the past hour and are
expected to continue for the next 2-3 hours. VCSH expected mainly
at TJSJ now. Low level east winds should continue at 8-15 kts,
light and variable winds expected at sfc overnight.

&&

.MARINE...No strong features for a while in the Atlantic that will
drive swell into the local area so seas on both sides of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are expected to remain 5 feet or
less through 18 November.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  87  78  87 /  30  30  20  20
STT  78  86  78  86 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

13/12

PERSPECTIVAS SOBRE CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO...CORRECCION
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1152 AM AST SABADO 12 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2016

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-130400-
SAN JUAN Y VECINDAD-NORESTE-SURESTE-
ESTE INTERIOR-NORTE CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE Y VECINDAD-
NOROESTE-OESTE INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ Y VECINDAD-SUROESTE-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
AGUAS COSTERAS Y MAR AFUERA DEL ATLANTICO Y DEL CARIBE-
1152 AM AST SABADO 12 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO PELIGROSAS ES PARA
PUERTO RICO Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.TRONADAS...EXISTE UNA PROBABILIDAD DE TRONADAS CON LLUVIAS
FUERTES Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS BREVES ESTA TARDE A TRAVES DEL
INTERIOR Y OESTE DE PUERTO RICO.

.INUNDACIONES...LLUVIAS FUERTES PODRIAN RESULTAR EN INUNDACIONES
URBANAS Y DE RIACHUELO.

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA LAS PLAYAS ORIENTADAS HACIA EL NORTE DE PUERTO RICO.

.CALOR...INDICE DE CALOR ENTRE 100 Y 102 GRADOS ES POSIBLE A TRAVES
DE AREAS COSTERAS DEL SUR Y NORTE DE PUERTO RICO.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...DOMINGO A VIERNES

SE ESPERA QUE EL RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS CONTINUE
HASTA EL DOMINGO.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES, SIN EMBARGO SE
INVITA A LOS OBSERVADORES A REPORTAR INUNDACIONES Y CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS AL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-130400-
SAN TOMAS SAN JOHN E ISLAS ADYACENTES-SANTA CRUZ-
AGUAS CERCA DE LA COSTA DEL ATLANTICO Y AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES
DEL CARIBE-
1152 AM AST SABADO 12 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DEL TIEMPO ES PARA
LAS ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS Y LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...EXISTE UN RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS PARA LAS PLAYAS ORIENTADAS HACIA EL NORTE DE SAN THOMAS.

.CALOR...INDICE DE CALOR ENTRE 100 Y 102 GRADOS ES POSIBLE A
TRAVES DE SANTA CRUZ.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...DOMINGO A VIERNES

SE ESPERA QUE EL RIESGO MODERADO DE CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS CONTINUE
HASTA EL DOMINGO.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACION REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES, SIN EMBARGO SE
INVITA A LOS OBSERVADORES A CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS AL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN.