Rip Current in Puerto Rico, February 23, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1056 AM AST TUE FEB 23 2016

.UPDATE...A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN
METRO AREA...EASTERN PR...AND THE USVI. THESE SHOWERS WERE
GENERALLY BRIEF AND LEFT VERY LITTLE...IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. THE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE VERY
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NW CORNER OF PR IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NW CORNER OF PR HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

THE INHERITED FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AND OBSERVATIONS...FOR THAT REASON NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A E-ESE
WIND AT ABOUT 10KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. SHRA EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TJBQ TERMINAL AFTER 23/18Z. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE
TEMPO MVFR SOME TIME BETWEEN 23/19Z AND 23/22Z. WINDS REMAINING
FROM THE E-ESE AFTER 23/23Z BUT SLIGHTLY LIGHTER...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TJPS AND TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT SEAS WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO DECREASE BUT REMAIN
OVER 7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS SOME OF THE BEACHES IN THE
USVI...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTH COAST OF PR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW A WEAK TROF TO
MOVE WESTWARD LEAVING THE LOCAL REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY...A TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING MOST OF THE
WEEK.

DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY PREVAILED AROUND MIDNIGHT. EARLY IN THE MORNING...A
SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE TO INCREASE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE WATERS...ACROSS THE EASTERN
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS THIS TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. DURING THE AFTERNOON...A DRY AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. IN ADDITION...MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY AIR MASS AT THESE LEVEL
KEEPING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY SHALLOW DURING MOST OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER...EASTERLY TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCNTY SHRA ARE PSBL IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR THRU ARND 23/14Z WITH BRIEF MVFR
AT TNCM AND TJNR THEN SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ
AFT 23/17Z ALONG WITH SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS WILL BE ESE 5 TO
15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT THE SFC. WINDS TRANSITION TO THE
WEST ARND FL180 AND INCR TO 55 TO 70 KTS BY FL360.

MARINE...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES. A NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS
CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE LOCAL
BUOYS INDICATED WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 6-7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FEET ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...THE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES HIGH ACROSS THE BEACHES OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...RINCON...AND MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  75  88  74 /  20  20  30  20
STT  85  75  85  75 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ
     AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND
     VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ST CROIX-ST.
     THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF
     PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

25/09

PERSPECTIVAS SOBRE CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO PELIGROSAS
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
612 AM AST MARTES 23 DE FEBRERO DE 2016

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-241015-
SAN JUAN Y VECINDAD-NORESTE-SURESTE-ESTE INTERIOR-
NORTE CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE Y VECINDAD-NOROESTE-
OESTE INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ Y VECINDAD-SUROESTE-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
LAS AGUAS COSTERAS CERCA DE LA COSTA Y LAS AGUAS DE MAR AFUERA DEL
ATLANTICO Y DEL CARIBE-
612 AM AST MARTES 23 DE FEBRERO DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO PELIGROSAS ES PARA
PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS COSTERAS ADYACENTES DEL ATLANTICO.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.CORRIENTE SUBMARINAS...HAY UN ALTO RIESGO DE CORRIENES SUBMARINAS
PARA LAS PLAYAS DEL NORTE Y NORESTE DE PUERTO RICO.

.DIAS DOS HASTA SIETE...MIERCOLES A LUNES

EL ALTO RIESGO DE CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS CONTINUARA EN LA COSTA NORTE
HASTA POR LO MENOS EL MIERCOLES EN LA NOCHE. NO SE ANTICIPA
CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS ADICIONALES EN ESTOS MOMENTOS.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIN REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES, SIN EMBARGO, SE
LES EXHORTA A LOS OBSERVADORES INDIVIDUALES A REPORTAR CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS AL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGA EN SAN JUAN.

AAMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-241015-
SAN TOMAS-ST. JOHN E ISLAS ADYACENTES-SANTA CRUZ
612 AM AST MARTES 23 DE FEBRERO DE 2016

ESTA PERSPECTIVA SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO PELIGROSAS ES PARA
LAS ISLAS VRGENES AMERICANAS Y LAS AGUAS ADYACENTES COSTERAS.

.DIA UNO...HOY Y ESTA NOCHE

.CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS...HAY UN ALTO RIESGO DE CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS
EN VARIAS PLAYAS DE SANTA CRUZ Y SAN THOMAS INCLUYENDO CRAMER PARK Y
BOTANY BEACHES.

.DIAS DOS A SIETE...MIERCOLES A LUNES

ALTO RIESGO DE CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS SE ANTICIPA PARA LA PARTE ESTE
DE SANTA CRUZ. NO SE ANTICIPA CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS ADICIONALES EN
ESTOS MOMENTOS.

.COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIN REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES...

NO SE ANTICIPA ACTIVACION AMPLIA DE OBSERVADORES, SIN EMBARGO, SE
LES EXHORTA A LOS OBSERVADORES INDIVIDUALES A REPORTAR CORRIENTES
SUBMARINAS AL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGA EN SAN JUAN.