Flash Flood in Pennsylvania, August 10, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
131 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will set up off the east coast for the remainder of
the week with a warm and moist airmass spreading north from the Gulf
of Mexico. Low pressure will move into the Great Lakes region over
the weekend with a frontal boundary extending south towards the mid-
Mississippi Valleys. This stationary front will slowly drift
southeast across the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Not much behind the line of convection east of Cle. Tweaked the
timing of the convection out of the forecast area.

Original discussion...
Moisture continues to advect north towards the region from the
Gulf of Mexico late this afternoon and into tonight. Showers have
not made it into the region as of 4 pm but regional radars show
showers and thunderstorms expanding from the Tennessee Valley into
southwest Ohio. The 12Z sounding out of Nashville captured this
moist airmass well with a PW value of 2.16 inches and considerable
moisture below 500mb. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move from central Ohio across northeast Ohio this
evening and into Pennsylvania tonight with dewpoints increasing to
near 70 degrees. A 25-30 knot low level jet will develop across
eastern Ohio this evening with the enhanced low level moisture
convergence fueling additional thunderstorm development overnight.
Meanwhile shortwave energy moving into the western Great Lakes
this afternoon will slide east across Lake Erie overnight. Have
raised pops across extreme eastern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania
late this evening and through the overnight hours where rain is
expected to develop where these features converge. In fact, storm
motion will be parallel to this axis and could result in training
of storms or continued re- development over the same area, leading
to a threat of locally heavy rain. This axis should tend to sink
southeast towards the southeastern portion of the forecast area
late tonight. Temperatures will not drop much below 70 degrees
with the increasing humidity overnight with lower to mid 70s near
the lakeshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
After the passage of the shortwave overnight, the moisture axis will
settle southward and remain draped across southern portions of the
forecast area on Wednesday. Northern portions of the area may be
capped on Wednesday but scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop in the southern counties as afternoon instability builds.
Thunderstorms will also be possible along the lake breeze in
northeast Ohio. The hot and humid airmass will remain in place
through the end of the week with scattered thunderstorms developing
each afternoon. Storm motion will be relatively slow and storms will
be capable of locally heavy rainfall.

The heat will be the other concern over the coming days with
temperatures near 90 degrees and dewpoints near 70 or possibly even
in the lower 70s. Heat index values will be in the 90s for all areas
with upper 90s across northwest Ohio. Overnight lows will be above
normal near 70 with muggy conditions providing little relief from
the heat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level trough will slowly advance towards the region over
the weekend with increasing coverage of afternoon thunderstorms
through Saturday. These storms will decrease with the loss of
daytime heating until a frontal passage Saturday night keeps a
bit more of a chance for storms on this overnight period. The
frontal passage is slow to cross the Ohio Valley and could linger
storms through early Sunday night in the southern CWA. Latest run
of the ECMWF held this frontal passage up and developed a H5
trough in the central U.S. which drastically increased the chances
for storm development on Monday. It brings a surface low into the
CWA from the southwest later overnight with fropa Tuesday.

Original forecast did not account for the large swing from
the latest ECMWF run but this just adds more uncertainty and a
higher probability for change to the latter part of the forecast.
Forecast confidence wanes strongly past Sunday.

Through Saturday expect temperatures to be seasonably warm but not
get out of hand as the very anomalous amount of moisture available
will inhibit max temps from reaching 90 in most locations.
Unfortunately this correlates to min temps not dropping past 70
for an uncomfortable beginning of the forecast. Storms that do
develop in this airmass will have a higher propensity for very
high rainfall rates and an increased chance for localized
flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
MVFR/IFR thunderstorms moving across extreme NE OH into NW PA.
Elsewhere a humid airmass is in place with the expectation that
some fog will develop. Thickest fog will occur at locations that
had rainfall last evening. MVFR fog is anticipated with patchy IFR
possible. Winds away from this mornings thunderstorms will
generally be from the south. Weak lake breeze will likely develop
from KCLE to KERI with an onshore flow.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in thunderstorms Thursday through the
weekend. Areas of non-VFR fog possible each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will increase 10-15 knots overnight and veer to
southwest late. Generally good marine conditions will continue
through Friday. An area of low pressure will slowly drift east
across the lake over the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...DJB/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Lombardy

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
418 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

OHZ003-006>011-017>021-027>031-036>038-047-102030-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-
MEDINA-SUMMIT-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-
418 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL
RAIN BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE ALSO A
POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ012>014-022-023-032-033-089-PAZ001>003-102030-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-STARK-MAHONING-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD-
418 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A MOIST AIRMASS WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL
RAIN BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE ALSO A
POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-102030-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
418 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NE THRU THE LAKE TONIGHT AND S TO SW
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE NW PA LAKESHORE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING DOWN ON WED. LIGHT S TO SW WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL INTO THU NIGHT INCREASING SOME FOR FRI AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY ESE ACROSS THE LAKE SAT INTO SUN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
908 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S LEXINGTON           40.65N 82.59W
08/09/2016                   RICHLAND           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN SOUTH OF LEXINGTON.

0801 PM     TSTM WND GST     MANSFIELD               40.76N 82.53W
08/09/2016  E0.00 MPH        RICHLAND           OH   ASOS

            A 53 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST WAS MEASURED BY AN
            AUTOMATED SENSOR AT MANSFIELD LAHM AIRPORT

&&

KUBINA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1108 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND GST     HIGHLAND HEIGHTS        41.55N 81.47W
08/09/2016  M58.00 MPH       CUYAHOGA           OH   AWOS

            CUYAHOGA COUNTY AIRPORT. KCGF

1010 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CUYAHOGA HEIGHTS        41.44N 81.65W
08/09/2016                   CUYAHOGA           OH   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

&&

MITCHELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1118 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEVELAND HEIGHTS       41.51N 81.56W
08/09/2016                   CUYAHOGA           OH   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

1010 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW HIGHLAND HEIGHTS   41.56N 81.49W
08/09/2016  M58.00 MPH       CUYAHOGA           OH   AWOS

            CUYAHOGA COUNTY AIRPORT. KCGF

&&

MITCHELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ERIE                    42.13N 80.09W
08/10/2016                   ERIE               PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL VEHICLES REPORTED STRANDED IN WATER.

0120 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ERIE                    42.13N 80.09W
08/10/2016                   ERIE               PA   PUBLIC

            MANHOLE COVERS POPPED NEAR BAYFRONT. REPORTED THROUGH TV
            STATION WICU.

&&

MULLEN