Flash Flood in Indiana, August 10, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
102 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 102 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016

Upper ridge will remain centered off the east coast, with weak
energy aloft moving across the area, resulting in mainly diurnally
enhanced convection given weak mid level support and lack of any
surface features (weak return flow). Will have PoPs peak in the
afternoon, then fade in the evening and overnight. It will be
rather warm and humid with dew points up into the 70s again, with
highs upper 80s to lower 90s. Used a model blend for the weather,
slightly more weight to the ECMWF and NAM. MOS and persistence
used for temps.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016

GFS and ECMWF have slowed down the approaching cold front Friday
night into Saturday, now bringing it into our northwest counties by
around 00z Sunday.  This is about 6 hours slower than previous runs.
Canadian still shows the front bisecting the PAH forecast area by
18z Saturday.  All the models hang up the front across our region
into Sunday and early Monday, then show the front making some
southeastern progress into Monday night and Tuesday.

Leaning toward the slower GFS/ECMWF solutions, shower and
thunderstorm chances will be spreading southeast Friday night, with
good chance to likely pops for our west and northwest counties, to
slight chances southeast.  On Saturday, the focus for better
thunderstorm chances will continue to be across our west and
northwest counties, so went with likely pops in these areas, with
good chances across the rest of our region.  With the front across
the region the rest of the weekend, went with good chance to likely
pops across the entire PAH forecast area Saturday night and Sunday.

For Sunday night into Monday, with some question as to where the
front will be, kept probabilities in the chance category for now.
With front sliding a little farther southeast Monday night and
Tuesday, focused the better chances for showers and storms across
our south/southeast counties.

Overnight low temperatures will remain above seasonal normals Friday
night and Saturday night, but high temperatures through the weekend
will be a little below normal with additional cloud cover and
precipitation.  Winds shifting to the north late in the weekend will
keep temperatures near to below normal into early next week with dew
points hovering in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016

As a band of moisture surges westward into the region this
afternoon, scattered showers and tstms will be most common east of
the MS River, with brief vsby reductions to IFR probable during the
afternoon. Meanwhile, cloud cover will be quite variable, but most
widespread over the eastern two-thirds of the region today. Outside
tstm activity, winds will remain light, and generally out of the
southeast today, calm overnight, and generally out of the south
Thursday morning. MVFR fog will be likely late in the night, with
some terminals dipping into IFR.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

AVIATION...DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
932 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-111000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
932 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 100 ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND FAR WEST KENTUCKY TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL.

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 100 OVER A LARGE PART OF
THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, VALUES
MAY TOP 105 BOTH DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN
SITUATION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
117 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT VERNON            37.94N 87.90W
08/10/2016  M3.75 INCH       POSEY              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            JUST OVER ONE HOUR RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. MINOR STREET
            FLOODING REPORTED.

&&

SMITTY