Rip Current in Florida, August 10, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
142 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...
Ocnl IFR conditions due to TSRA/SHRA will continue through the
afternoon hours at TLH/ABY/DHN and possibly at ECP. After sunset,
coverage should decrease leaving pockets of MVFR cigs. After 06z
expect widespread MVFR ceilings with areas of IFR ceilings/vis
around sunrise on Thursday. VFR conditions should return after
15z-16z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1040 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
14 UTC surface analysis shows a 1014 mb surface low centered about
near Mobile Alabama. Moderate southerly flow was in place across
the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a large area of surface dewpoints
above 75 degrees. Visible satellite/radar composite shows a band
of modest convection streaming northward out of Apalachee Bay over
the Florida Big Bend, while convection is much more sparse across
the Florida Panhandle. Aloft, vapor imagery shows the mid/upper
low center is just off to the west of the marine area. There still
appears to be a little drier mid level air across the northern
portion of the forecast area.

Hi-res guidance this morning suggests the convective band in place
this morning should persist through the afternoon across the
Florida Big Bend before weakening late this afternoon. Extensive
low level cloudiness and some mid level dry air will likely limit
significant development of showers and storms across the northern
half of the forecast area today, so have adjusted PoPs
accordingly. With the bulk of the heavy rainfall now drifting
further west, have discontinued the flood watch for Madison,
Lafayette, and Dixie Counties. Primary concern of course remains
flooding mainly in urban areas from locally heavy rainfall where
the flood watch remains in effect.

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday]...

Low pressure (at the lower and upper levels) over the Florida
Panhandle will slowly drift westward through the period. This will
allow continued deep southerly flow with rich, Gulf moisture over
the area. Precipitable water values will remain above 2 inches
through tonight and possibly even through Thursday night. By Friday,
the bulk of the moisture will be focused to our west, over
Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. Because of this pattern shift,
the heaviest rainfall totals will shift westward as we head into the
weekend and our area will likely receive the bulk of our rain today
and tonight. Our local hi-res ensemble shows A 20% chance that parts
of north Florida may see and additional six or more inches of
rainfall today. Given how much rainfall this area has received in
the past few days and the additional rainfall today and tonight, the
flood watch has been extended in time through 8 AM ET Thursday
morning for the Florida Panhandle, with the flood watch for the Big
Bend expiring at 8 PM ET tonight.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Mid level low will continue its westward march across MS/LA at the
start of the long term period then become absorbed by a passing by
mid level trough. Western Atlantic ridging is set to build in on the
heels of the departing low which will bring a return to more typical
summertime weather. Precipitation chances will decrease this weekend
and favor more climatological norms. Clouds will also decrease which
will lead to a gradual warming of daytime highs back into the
lower to middle 90s to start the next work week.

.MARINE...

Advisory conditions are expected to continue over the western waters
through 8 PM ET tonight while cautionary conditions will prevail
over the eastern waters today. These strong winds from the south and
high seas will gradually lower through Thursday. Beyond Thursday,
expect south to southeast winds generally around 10 knots and seas
generally around 2 feet or less.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Good chances for rainfall will continue over the next couple of
days. Rain chances decrease and high temperatures increase over the
weekend. Soil moisture will remain high due to recent rainfalls
across much of the area and high RH values will preclude any
fire weather threat this period.

.HYDROLOGY...

In the last 72 hours, the eastern Big Bend has seen widespread
totals of 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated areas receiving more
than 15 inches. To the west, much of the Florida Panhandle has
received 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated spots receiving around
6 to 8 inches. Local hi-res ensembles show a 20% chance of an
additional 6 or more inches of rainfall in north Florida today and
a 10% chance an additional 6 or more inches in the western Panhandle
for tonight. A flood watch remains in effect through 8 PM ET
Wednesday for the Big Bend and through 8 AM ET Thursday for the
Florida Panhandle.

This excessive rainfall has caused rises along some of our area
rivers, notably on the southern portions. Fortunately, our rivers
were low heading into this event, so at this time, only the
Steinhatchee River at Cross City is in minor flood stage. The
Steinhatchee will likely peak just above 15 feet or right around its
moderate flood stage. The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce is forecast
to peak in action stage by Friday night and the Choctawhatchee River
at Caryville will be close to action stage as well. Some of our more
rapid response rivers, such as Shoal River at Mossyhead, may rise
today if heavy rain falls in their basin, but otherwise, no further
river flooding is forecast at this time.

For detailed information on specific river stages and forecasts,
please visit http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  90  75  93  75 /  40  50  20  30  20
Panama City   78  86  78  89  78 /  60  60  40  40  20
Dothan        74  87  74  91  73 /  40  70  30  50  20
Albany        73  91  74  94  74 /  30  50  20  40  20
Valdosta      73  92  74  94  74 /  30  50  20  30  20
Cross City    74  91  74  92  75 /  30  40  20  30  20
Apalachicola  78  87  78  89  78 /  40  50  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Jackson-Liberty-North Walton-
     South Walton-Washington.

     Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Moore

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1233 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ENE TALLAHASSEE COML  30.46N 84.22W
08/10/2016                   LEON               FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WEEMS ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

EWESTON