A shortwave caused showers to continue across the area. One shower produced a brief funnel cloud east of Corvallis.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
A shortwave caused showers to continue across the area. One shower produced a brief funnel cloud east of Corvallis.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 18, 1:45 PM PST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland Oregon
245 PM PDT Tue Oct 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A weak upper level ridge will across the forecast area
late tonight and Wednesday morning. Moist low levels will lead to
valley fog formation tonight. Moisture from the next system reaches
the coast Wednesday morning then spreads inland in the afteroon and
evening. The frontal boundary stalls across SW Washington and far NW
Oregon Wednesday night, then slowly sags southeast Thursday. The
frontal remnants remain Friday. Offshore low-level flow develops
Friday night. Latest models show an elongated frontal bounday just
off the coast early Saturday afternoon then spreading inland Sunday.
A cold upper trough in the NE Pacific Sunday night and Monday leads
to a cooler and more unstable air mass.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)...KLGX doppler radar shows
continued shower activity over SW Washington and Northwest Oregon
early this afteroon, with some heavier returns of the South
Washington foothills. KRTX Portland doppler radar remains out of
service. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave disturbance moving
across south-central Oregon, with a rapidly developing surface low
pressure area near 48N 147W. Behind the shortwave, 500 mg heights
rise as a flat ridge approaches the coast. This will bring warming
aloft that will stabilize the atmosphere late today and tonight.
Surface high pressure moves across the forecast area tonight and
Wednesday morning. The low level air mass will be moist. Although
high clouds may spread over the area in westerly flow aloft, not
confident how much skies will clear out. Despite the above still
think there will be areas of valley fog tonight.
Morning model runs continue to indicate the low level flow backing to
southeast to south direction by Wednesday, with a warm front slowly
lifting north and brushing the western part of OR and WA Wed
afternoon and night. Modest moist isentropic lift is seen in
models along the 300k isentrope Wed across the forecast area, while
deeper moist lifting is evident along the coast and across sw WA down
to the 290k isentrope late Wed and Wed night. Increased POPS to
categorical Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Both the ECMWF and
GFS suggest the frontal boundary will stall over Southwest Washington
and far Northwest Oregon late Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
The front weakens and sags southeast Thursday afteroon through
Thursday night. Lowering 500 mb heights Friday will maintain
scattered showers. Weishaar
LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)...What looked like a dry
weekend is quickly tranforming into less dry time and more wet time.
Friday night looks dry with the leading edge of the next frontal
system off the coast. More model discrepancy Saturday as the GFS
shows some light precipitation along the coast but minimal inland.
The ECMWF is wetter with precipitation from Southwest Washington to
the north and central Oregon coast range. Higher POPS saturday night
as the baroclinic boundary pushes inland. Weak frontal boundary
stalls Sunday as the flow aloft becomes parallel to the mid and upper
level flow. Models then maintain a deep upper level trough in the NE
Pacific Monday with plenty of shower activity, especially over the
higher terrain. Could also be just unstable enough Monday for a risk
of coastal thunderstorms. Model 1000-500 mb thickness values Monday
give rise to snowfall just above the Cascade passes. Weishaar
&&
.AVIATION...Scattered showers will continue across the forecast
area through this afternoon. MVFR cigs in the interior will lift
and become primarily VFR over the next several hours. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions to continue into tonight. Shower activity
tapers off dramatically later this evening. There is still some
uncertainty with the amount of clearing expected overnight. If we
see clear skies tonight into early Wed morning expect fog and low
stratus to develop across the area. However, if there are enough
high clouds over the region tonight the chance of fog and low
stratus is minimal. Rain will be possible along the coast after
10Z Wed and inland after 15Z Wed under predominately VFR cigs.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR stratus is expected to become VFR by
00Z Wed. Scattered showers are possible through 04Z Wed. Expect
primarily VFR conditions tonight. Patchy fog or low stratus
possible after 10Z Wed. Rain returns after 17Z Wed. /64
&&
.MARINE...High pres will continue to briefly build over the
waters this afternoon with winds generally 15 kt or less. Winds
will turn southerly on Wed and are expected to reach high-end
Small Craft Advisory speeds as a warm front moves across the
waters. Based on today's 12Z model runs winds over our waters
should remain below 30 kt so will go ahead and issue a Small Craft
Advisory for winds starting at 3 AM tonight over the outer waters
and at 4 PM Wed over the inner waters. A cold front will then move
across the waters on Thu which will continue to bring gusty winds
to 30 kt, with the strongest winds generally north of Tillamook.
Will see much more tranquil winds develop late Thu and Fri.
Another front is expected over the weekend.
Seas in the inner waters are currently around 7 to 9 ft and are
expected to remain below 10 ft so decided to drop the Small Craft
Advisory for seas with this package. However, based on nearshore
buoys and model guidance it looks like seas over a portion of the
outer waters will remain around 10 to 12 ft through Thu morning
with a westerly swell. Seas look to fall below 10 ft across all of
the waters by the end of the week, but look to rise back into the
teens over the weekend. /64
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for South
Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 3 AM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT
Thursday for Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR
from 10 to 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for winds from 4 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PDT
Thursday for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to
Florence OR out 10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 9 AM PDT Thursday
for Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10
to 60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar until 11 PM
PDT this evening.
Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar from 6 AM to
10 AM PDT Wednesday.
&&
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This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. The area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 funnel cloud. Local standard time, as filed.
Oregon State University Meteorology Professor reported seeing a funnel cloud looking east of Corvallis.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, October 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 662278.