An incoming front brought high winds to parts of southwest and south central Oregon.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An incoming front brought high winds to parts of southwest and south central Oregon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 24, 4:22 PM PST, 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
422 PM PST Thu Nov 24 2016
Updated Marine and Aviation sections.
.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...A very strong front is just
offshore this afternoon, helping to generate a line of
thunderstorms over the coastal waters and brining heavy rain to
the coast just north of the forecast area. This is foreshadowing
what will impact the Southern Oregon coast tonight into tomorrow.
Models all agree that at least a couple 6-12 hour periods of heavy
rain will affect the coast along the frontal boundary that will
wave back and forth at the coast through Saturday morning. The
NAM, a bit of an outlier but consistent over the past couple runs,
aims the narrow band of deep moisture right at Curry and Coos
Counties through Saturday morning, never really letting up. We
have increased forecast precipitation amounts in part due to this
and also due to some high resolution model indicating rainfall
totals that exceed the GFS and NAM, and we have now issued a
flood warning at FLWMFR for the Coquille River at Coquille and the
South Fork of the Coquille at Myrtle Point. These rivers should
approach flood stage Friday night. Additionally, an areal flood
watch at FFAMFR continues for Coos, Curry, Western Josephine,
Western Douglas, and Western Siskiyou Counties. Landslides and
urban and small stream flooding are possible with the expected
heavy rainfall rates. Any clogged gutters or drains should be
attended to now.
Strong winds will also impact areas, primarily at the coast and in
the Shasta Valley over the next 24 hours with lesser winds, but
still gusty, over other inland areas. High Wind Warnings and Wind
Advisories can be found at NPWMFR. These strong winds and
aforementioned rainfall, along with loss of natural light, will make
travel especially dangerous along Highway 101 and other coastal
roads this evening. Winds will diminish from west to east across
the forecast area from Friday morning to Saturday morning.
Last but not least are snow impacts. What looked like a continuous
and widespread barrage of mountain snow impacts from model data
earlier in the week now is much more focused in terms of coverage
and timing. The first episode of snow from tonight through Friday
night, associated with the cold front and moisture sagging to the
south, will affect generally elevations above 5000 feet in the
Southern Oregon Cascades and Siskiyous and elevations above 4000
feet in Siskiyou County. A winter weather advisory has been issued
for this at WSWMFR. As the front waves to the north Friday night,
snow should diminish some in these areas. Then, with the front's
final push south on Saturday, colder air will filter in, snow levels
will drop, and snow will impact more areas than the first round of
snow. High-volume traffic routes like Siskiyou Summit on I-5 and
Highway 97 will likely see accumulating snow Saturday.
Additionally, flow aloft will continue to be upslope for the
Cascades, and this will bring significant snow to the Cascades
mountain passes like Highway 140 at Lake of the Woods. Toward the
tail end of the precipitation on Saturday evening, it's possible
that snow levels could dip to Sexton Pass levels (2000 feet), but
data doesn't support this right now, so am keeping snow levels
around 2500 to 3000 feet in the current forecast.
Sunday will feature weather that is relatively favorable for travel,
especially in the afternoon as any lingering showers will diminish
by then.
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday to Thursday...Slight ridging will build Monday as
the Pacific high strengthens. A weak front will ride over the top,
bringing precipitation to the PacNW. The southern extent of the
precipitation has been inconsistent in the past few model runs,
but current projection of EC and GFS shows precip in most of the
CWA, so maintained likely PoPs on the west side and mountains, and
chance PoPs over the east side. Snow levels over the east side are
projected to be right around 4000 to 4500 feet... so expected
precipitation type will be snow over higher elevations, but
probably mix over lower areas such as Klamath Falls. Winds may hit
advisory criteria over the east side, but will wait a few forecast
cycles to determine whether to issue headlines.
A ridge will build into the area on Tuesday, bringing valley fog and
a break from precipitation. A trough will move into the area as
early as Tuesday night...bringing precipitation to the area
Wednesday into Thursday. The EC and GFS solutions vary
substantially...the GFS has a faster progression and shows the
trough digging much farther south, bringing higher precipitation
amounts and snow levels down to pass levels. The EC, on the other
hand, is slower and maintains slight ridging in our forecast area,
thus is much lighter on precipitation amounts, and projects much
higher snow levels. Leaned slightly toward the GFS as it has had
more run to run consistency than the EC, but there is still high
uncertainty and expect that forecast to be updated reflecting new
information in the coming days.
After the trough moves through, cold air originating from the
northern intermountain states and western Canada will move into the
area, bringing well below freezing temperature to the east side, and
near freezing temperatures with possible fog to the west side. If
current forecast pattern verifies, expect the coldest temperatures
of the season. -MSC
&&
.AVIATION...20/00Z TAF cycle...Low level wind shear will be an issue
at terminals west of the Cascades through tonight.
The approaching front is generating MVFR conditions for some
locations along the coast this evening and these CIGS are
expected to continue into the morning hours. It's hard to see CIGS
lowering and fog forming tonight as windy conditions will keep the
lower levels of the atmosphere well mixed. East of the coast, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail.
Across the east side, VFR conditions will prevail, but strong south
winds will develop this afternoon and persist through Friday morning.
As for precipitation in this TAF period, thunderstorms will make
their way towards KOTH at 1 - 3z this evening, so even more chaotic
winds are expected at that site as thunderstorms move on shore.
Note: The ceilometer at FAA site KOTH remains out of service, so
there will be no ceiling observations available generally between
the hours of 04Z and 14Z.
-Smith
&&
.MARINE...Updated 300 PM PST Thursday 24 November 2016...A strong and
well defined front will slowly progress eastward this evening into
Friday morning and will generate gale to storm force winds for the outer
waters. Winds will remain strongest near and north of Cape Blanco,
which has been verified from satellite observations this afternoon. Seas
will also remain hazardous this evening into early tonight along the front
with wave wave heights 20 to 25 feet.
After the front passes through the waters on Thursday night and
Friday morning, winds will weaken. However, steep fresh swells, 17
to 15, feet will develop. Although the fresh swell will diminish,
Hazardous seas will continue into the weekend.
As for Friday night, the surface low will dive south resulting in
winds briefly increasing on the eastward side of the low. Therefore,
gale force winds are possible south of Cape Blanco in the inner
waters Friday night.
The active pattern will continue through the next several days, with
steep seas continuing in the extended forecast.
-Smith
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon PST
Friday for ORZ029-030.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for ORZ030-031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
Friday ABOVE 4500 FEET for for ORZ028.
High Wind Warning until 1 AM PST Friday for ORZ021-022.
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ORZ021>024.
High Surf Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
Friday for ORZ027.
CA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for CAZ085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
Friday ABOVE 4000 FEET for for CAZ082.
Flood Watch from 10 PM PST this evening through Saturday morning
for CAZ080.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
Friday ABOVE 4500 FEET for for CAZ080-083.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST Friday for CAZ081.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Storm Warning until 1 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Gale Warning until 1 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 AM Friday to 4 PM
PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
NSK/MSC/CZSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Port Orford NOS/NWLON recorded a gust to 61 mph at 24/1636 PST and a gust to 58 mph at 24/1818 PST.
The Flynn Prairie RAWS recorded a gust to 60 mph at 24/1813 PST.
The Flynn Prairie RAWS recorded a gust to 60 mph at 24/1813 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 662079, 662080, 662081.