Wildfire in Oregon, July 31, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
212 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...Dry and stable northwest
flow will persist tonight and Monday. There will be localized smoke
in the area due to multiple wildfires, but it will not be widespread
enough to mention in the forecast. Winds will decrease overnight,
but still remain breezy in the Columbia River Gorge and Kittitas
Valley. Clear skies and light winds in other areas will allow good
radiational cooling for relatively cooler low temperatures tonight.
Monday evening an upper level low will approach the Strait of Juan
de Fuca and move across Washington Tuesday. The main effect of the
associated trough will be increasing winds and blowing dust across
the Columbia Basin...(See fire weather discussion below for other
concerns.) A few showers are also possible near the WA Cascades.
Wednesday dry northwest flow will redevelop over WA and OR.
Coonfield

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Sunday...The upper level flow
will be westerly Wednesday night through Thursday. The upper flow
looks to begin to turn more to the southwest Thursday night into
Friday. Thus conditions are expected to remain dry Wednesday night
through Friday morning. Model differences remain in the handling of
an upper trough, a wave rotating through this trough, and attendant
moisture Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. For now will
introduce slight chances of thunderstorms and showers over the
higher terrain of Grant and Wallowa counties late Friday night
through Saturday night. Could see the threat over a larger portion
of eastern Oregon and even into southeast Washington, or the
moisture could be pushed east of the area altogether. A lot will
depend on the speed and timing of the upper trough. At this time
conditions look to be dry on Sunday. Temps should run near to
slightly below seasonal through this period. 90

&&

.AVIATION...Previous Discussion...18Z TAFs...A dry westerly flow
will keep conditions VFR with mostly clear skies through the next 24
hours. A layer of smoke from wildfires west of the Tri-Cities will
affect KPSC, KALW and KPDT at times through at least this evening.
Will include FEW to SCT deck around 5000 ft AGL to show the smoke
layer. Sustained winds will run mainly in the 6 to 11 kt range,
though KDLS will see stronger sustained winds in the 15 to 20 kt
range. 90

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Locally breezy conditions persist in the Columbia
Gorge this afternoon...but with relative humidities higher than
readings Saturday afternoon...do not expect any fire weather
concerns. The next period of concern will be Tuesday afternoon and
evening...as a cold front sweeps across the region. Expect winds to
increase during the day Tuesday...reaching windy levels across the
Columbia Basin and Gorge. Drier air will persist...especially across
the basin...where RHs will fall to 15-23 percent Tuesday afternoon
into early evening. The combination of the wind and low RH will
result in the potential for elevated fire growth potential. Will
issue a Fire Weather Watch for Oregon and Washington zone 641 for
this potential. At this time...think other areas will either have
higher RH and/or less wind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  53  90  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  59  91  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  55  92  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  55  92  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  54  92  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  55  88  59  74 /   0   0   0  10
RDM  42  90  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  43  89  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  42  92  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  57  89  63  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for ORZ641.

WA...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for WAZ641.

&&

76/90/90/80