Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, July 6, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
652 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered storms are expected to move into western Oklahoma and
western north Texas. But as usual, the probability of one of
these storms affecting any specific TAF site is less than 50
percent at this point so will not include a TEMPO group in this
set. Away from storms, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Forecast concerns for this update are focused upon ongoing
excessive heat over parts of north/central Oklahoma and prospects
for convection to spread east from west Texas this evening.

Current heat index values are occasionally reaching 110 degrees
from Kingfisher to Perkins and surrounding sites. Meanwhile 105 to
110 degree heat index values continue along a broad corridor from
western north Texas over much of Oklahoma. The Heat Advisory has
been expanded a bit on its western periphery and upgraded to an
Excessive Heat Warning over north/central Oklahoma. Will maintain
these headlines through Thursday, but influences from convection
tonight and/or any slight decrease in surface dewpoints could
dictate later adjustments.

Convection allowing models have shown a consistent signal for
scattered convection to originate within the deeply mixed boundary
layer over west Texas late this afternoon and spreading eastward
over western Oklahoma and western north Texas this evening. This
appears evident in satellite trends with deepening cumulus over
the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. With sufficient
steering flow and deep effective shear around 30 kt a threat of
severe/damaging wind gusts appears to exist with this activity as
it moves east of the 100th meridian around 00z.

Beyond these immediate hazards, ensemble confidence plots suggest
low confidence in the model blends through the weekend when a
front is expected to approach/impact the region. As of now, the
most likely timeframe for meaningful rainfall appears to be Friday
night/early Saturday favoring northern/northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  97  78  96 /  10   0  10  20
Hobart OK         77 103  79  99 /  40   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  79 101  79 100 /  20   0   0  10
Gage OK           76 105  74  97 /  40   0  10  30
Ponca City OK     80  99  78  93 /  20  10  10  30
Durant OK         77  95  78  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ012-013-
     018>020-024>026.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ006>008-011-016-017-
     022-023-027>032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ083>090.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071015-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
620 PM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...JUST EAST OF AMARILLO.  AS SUNSET APPROACHES...A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.

STORM INTENSITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS MAY REACH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY IN NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.HEAT...
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 113 ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.