Hail in North Carolina, September 27, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
505 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain over the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Sandhills of North Carolina through mid week. An upper level
low will drop south into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and linger
there through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 455 PM, widely sct/discrete convection firing off the high
terrain encountered some moderately unstable air, moderate shear,
and rather strong dCAPE across the foothills, and some of the cells
have made the most of it, producing brief large hail and damaging
winds. This threat will continue as convection moves across the
Piedmont over the next few hours. Meanwhile, additional activity was
developing off the Blue Ridge in the wake of the initial round.
Outflow and anvil canopy has cooled the air mass downstream of the
Blue Ridge convection, so this probably doesn't pose as high of a
severe weather threat, esp since the air mass wasn't all that
unstable in the first place. Fortunately, the improved mid-level
flow is allowing cells to move along at a pretty good clip (20-30
mph). This along with the (thus-far) lack of any multicell
organization suggests the chances for excessive rainfall are small
in the next 2-4 hours. However, enough shear is present such that
future organization is a definite possibility, most likely over the
I-77 corridor. That being said, based upon the currently widely sct
nature of the activity, pops were scaled back a bit in most areas
through early evening, although a likely was maintained along/east
of I-77.

In the big picture, the western Carolinas and north Georgia should
remain in the cyclonic flow aloft through Wednesday as a large upper
low over L Superior today drops almost due S over the next 24 hours,
keeping the trof axis to our west. This development should keep the
front moving only slowly east across the fcst area overnight.
Convection should wane in the late evening, with only widely
scattered precip expected over the Piedmont in the early morning
hours. The front will probably still be hung up across the
foothills/wrn Piedmont on Wednesday. Synoptically, we should retain
much of what we have today, that is weak upper divergence and a few
weak spokes of vorticity rotating around the upper low. Combined
with the low level focus of the sfc boundary, expect that new storms
will fire over the Piedmont/Upstate during the late morning and
afternoon. There should be enough shear and buoyancy along/east of
the front to provide for a few strong/severe storms, although the
shear/instability combo will be better just to the east. The Day 2
has the wrn Piedmont in the Marginal Risk and again this will not be
debated. Will not be surprised to see it expand west or get an
upgrade in later issuances. Leaned toward the warmer guidance for
temps, especially for highs on Wednesday with the front not all the
way through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tue: The region will still be in the process of pattern
change Wednesday night, as a cold front pushes into central NC and
the SC Midlands, and a deep cutoff low moves south into the lower
Ohio Valley. Consensus of NAM, GFS and SREF suggests convective
activity will linger over our lower Piedmont zones thru the evening
along/ahead of the front. Meanwhile, CAA sets up over East Tennessee
overnight into Thursday morning, concurrent with enough moisture to
warrant steady PoPs in our Tenn border zones. Min temps Thu mrng will
be back around normal.

The proximity of the upper low will permit deep mixing and sustain
good lapse rates aloft over much of the CWFA thru Thursday.
Deterministic models do not respond to this pattern with appreciable
QPF, so the higher PoP output from some MOS is assumed to reflect the
association of the pattern with abundant if not shallow showers.
Though the low remains centered in essentially the same position
Friday, heights are higher and profiles more stable over our area, so
we can advertise a dry forecast then. Temps will be refreshingly
cooler Thursday, with maxes near normal. These trend still cooler for
Thu night and Fri over most of the area, with the additional sunshine
seemingly offsetting the cooler air in the north and mountains. They
should top out generally 2-4 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Tuesday...Starting at 00Z Saturday the cut off
upper low will be centered near Louisville KY. This low will slowly
lift north and fill as it becomes absorbed in the westerly upper
flow near the eastern Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday.  Models
still have a surface high pressure over eastern Canada to start the
week ridging southward to the Carolinas. A high amplitude upper
ridge will be over the East during the first of the week as a trough
sweeps across the northern Rockies and plains states.  Ridgetop
convection becoming more favorable in the PM of Day 7 for the NC
Mtns.

Concern will be building next week as a pending hurricane moving
north out of the Caribbean.  The 06Z GFS has it crossing Haiti at
12Z Monday then just east of Cape Hatteras as a powerful hurricane
at 18Z Wednesday as it heads toward Long Island. The old ECMWF has
it crossing eastern Cuba at 18Z Wednesday so this model is much
slower.  The new 12Z GFS has a track farther to the east with still
a powerful hurricane at 12Z Thursday halfway between NC and Bermuda.
All progression of this tropical system must be watched very closely.

Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees above normal from
Saturday through the first half of next week after the cut off low
has departed and we are under the upper ridge. Although Min Temps at
first will be near or a little below Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT...we await the development of deep convection near the Blue
Ridge, which should approach from the west in the late afternoon. In
the mean time...as the mid-level ceiling moves east, we should see
additional low cloud development that should be in the MVFR range.
Cannot rule out a brief MVFR broken ceiling, but this was not
included in the TAF for brevity. Instead, think it more important to
indicate the possibility of a line/area of showers and storms moving
across metro Charlotte in the evening hours. The CAM guidance is in
relatively good agreement that convection will impact KCLT, perhaps
as early as 21Z and as late as 03Z. The TEMPO will fit in the middle
of that time frame. Once the convection moves east, expect a few
hours of convective debris, eventually clearing out enough to cool
off to allow fog to develop. Some of the guidance hits this very
hard with VLIFR possible. Prefer for now to indicate the development
of an MVFR restriction (which will be widespread across the wrn
Piedmont) and let the next shift include more IFR or lower details
after the storm threat subsides. Any morning restriction should lift
by 14Z or so. The front will remain close by on Wednesday morning.
Could see redevelopment right on top of KCLT during midday. This
also will not be included for brevity at this time. Winds will be SW
today and should veer a bit more toward WSW on Wednesday, with gusty
and variable winds near storms.

Elsewhere: Should see deep convection initiating near the Blue Ridge
by 19Z or so. Have timed this across the fcst area in a 4-hr window
with a TEMPO for TSRA at all TAF sites, followed by a VCSH for
lingering showers. Similar evolution to KCLT after that, with
widespread MVFR/IFR fog/stratus developing in the early morning
hours on Wednesday. Again, details had to be omitted. Think best
chance of new storms on Wednesday will be to the east.

Outlook: Cold front will slowly push out of the area Wednesday
afternoon. Dry high pressure will build in slowly behind the front
Wednesday into Thursday, which should bring VFR conditions in most
places through the end of the week, although some instability could
lead to showers over the NC part of the area on Thursday afternoon.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  92%     High  96%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     Med   77%     High 100%
KAVL       High  85%     Med   79%     Med   78%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  94%     High  90%     High  96%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1218 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-053-056-057-062>065-068>072-
082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-281630-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1218 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO RESULT FROM
DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED
HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-281630-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
1218 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF DOWNPOURS OCCUR IN
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
424 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     HAIL             3 SSW BOILING SPRINGS   35.00N 82.01W
09/27/2016  M1.00 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON
            ASHEVILLE HWY NEAR FIRST BAPTIST NORTH SPARTANBURG.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
425 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

SCZ010-272100-
ANDERSON SC-
425 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING
WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 424 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ANDERSON...OR NEAR NORTHLAKE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDERSON...HOMELAND PARK...BELTON...WILLIAMSTON...NORTHLAKE...
PENDLETON...ANDERSON AIRPORT...LAKE HARTWELL...BROADWAY LAKE AND
SANDY SPRINGS.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

LAKE HARTWELL IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
MOVE TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3446 8287 3447 8287 3449 8290 3468 8277
      3463 8245 3461 8244 3437 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 286DEG 16KT 3456 8275

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     HAIL             3 SE BOILING SPRINGS    35.01N 81.95W
09/27/2016  M1.00 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON BENTLEY COURT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             3 SSE BOILING SPRINGS S 35.00N 81.96W
09/27/2016  E0.88 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL SSE OF BOILING SPRINGS, SC.

&&

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

SCZ006-010>012-019-272145-
ABBEVILLE SC-GREATER GREENVILLE SC-LAURENS SC-ANDERSON SC-
GREENWOOD SC-
514 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LAURENS...
NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD...SOUTH CENTRAL GREENVILLE...NORTHEASTERN
ABBEVILLE AND EAST CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 514 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES NORTH OF ABBEVILLE...OR NEAR HONEA PATH...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELTON...HONEA PATH...WARE SHOALS...DUE WEST...DONALDS...COKESBURY...
HODGES...SHOALS JUNCTION...PRINCETON AND HICKORY TAVERN.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3437 8258 3464 8244 3454 8208 3423 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 285DEG 16KT 3443 8236

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
516 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

NCZ506>508-272145-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-EASTERN MCDOWELL NC-
516 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND
SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 516 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...SPINDALE...BOSTIC...LAKE LURE...GREEN
HILL...SUNSHINE...THERMAL CITY...SHINGLE HOLLOW AND FERO.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 8170 3545 8170 3526 8198 3527 8200
      3533 8205 3534 8208 3535 8208 3546 8219
      3560 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 237DEG 22KT 3543 8206

NED