An extended period of abnormally dry weather and drought conditions that began in late winter of 2016, and continued through the year resulted in very dry vegetation across western North Carolina by mid-autumn. This was exacerbated by an unusually warm late summer and fall, when temperatures averaged as much as 5 degrees above normal.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
An extended period of abnormally dry weather and drought conditions that began in late winter of 2016, and continued through the year resulted in very dry vegetation across western North Carolina by mid-autumn. This was exacerbated by an unusually warm late summer and fall, when temperatures averaged as much as 5 degrees above normal. In these conditions, multiple wildfires ignited and spread during the first week of November, culminating in one of the worst wildfire episodes in recent western North Carolina history. Multiple large fires burned, mainly across the southern mountains, and most of these fires were not completely contained until a cold front brought much-needed rain to the area at the end of the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 3, 12:54 PM EST, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
154 PM EDT Thu Nov 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross our region from the northwest tonight and
Friday, though slight rain chances will remain isolated to higher
terrain due to a lack of moisture. The front will bring temperatures
down to near seasonal normals through the beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At 2 PM Thursday: An upper trough will cross the Eastern Seaboard
tonight and Friday. A well defined shortwave moving through this
trough will cross the Southern Appalachians around dawn, moving off
the coast by late afternoon.
At this surface, a cold front will approach the Southern
Appalachians from the northwest this afternoon, crossing the area
overnight. Precipitation chances will be modest, and best over the
NC mountains bordering TN. A prefrontal westerly component to the
surface winds will limit precipitation chances east of the mountains.
Cloud cover will increase with the approach of the front, then
decrease in its wake. Overnight temperatures will run well above
normal. Daytime high temperatures on Friday will run slightly above
normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday: The main concern for the short term
period will be frost/freeze potential over western NC this weekend.
Behind a departing front, broad surface high pressure and ridging
aloft will cover the eastern CONUS through the weekend. Good
radiating conditions may set up by daybreak Saturday as the pressure
gradient slowly relaxes. Will likely highlight frost/isolated freeze
potential in the HWO for the NC mountains. Another, better radiation
night is expected Saturday night with areas of frost possible in the
NC mountains and patchy frost possible into the foothills and the NW
NC piedmont. Will continue the HWO mention for the mountains for
Sunday morning but omit it for now across non-mountain areas given
mostly upper 30s temps. Expect continued dry conditions with
temperatures near climo on Saturday and one to two categories above
climo for maxes on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Thursday: The upper ridge axis will move to the
eastern seaboard on Monday as the associated surface high moves off
the mid-Atlantic coast, but persists over the southeast. A clipper
system will cross the Great Lakes on Tuesday and drag a trailing
trough axis through the southern Appalachians by mid week. This wave
will likely push a back door cold front into or through our region
on Wednesday or Wednesday night, but moisture and associated QPF
look quite sparse along the boundary. Drier air should settle back
in on Thursday. Temperatures continue at least a category above
climo Monday through Thursday.
There does not appear to be much chance of wetting rainfall until
perhaps next Saturday, well beyond the current forecast period, with
another cold front arriving which might have better moisture pooling.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere...Model time heights suggest low VFR clouds
overspreading the area this afternoon and evening as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Although the predominant cloud height
appears to lower toward dawn, drier air should reduce cloud cover,
preventing MVFR ceilings from forming. Winds will favor the SW this
afternoon in the Foothills and Piedmont, veering northwest late this
evening, and northeast after dawn, with gusts increasing. KAVL winds
will favor the NW, with increasing gusts. Precipitation chances this
evening only warrant a mention at KAVL and KGSP. Instability is not
sufficient to support convection.
Outlook: Dry high pressure returns for Friday and lingers through at
least Monday.
Confidence Table...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 85% Low 56%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 85% Low 56%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 85% Med 62%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 85% Low 56%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 85% Low 56%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 85% Low 54%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity will lower on Friday, but not quiite to critical
levels, as drier air arrives behind a front. Winds will be rather
gusty around midday, but will decrese in the afternoon, with only a
limited chance of overlap between the lowest RH and highest winds.
Given the critical fuel moisture conditions, a Fire Danger Statement
for NE GA looks likely.
Dry conditions will continue on Saturday with widespread RH values
in the 20s as afternoon dewpoints mix. Fortunately, the pressure
gradient will relax as high pressure settles over the eastern U.S.
Dry fuels will continue to gradually heighten fire danger over the
region, and an FWF headline will continue to be featured.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 11-03
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 81 1974 39 1966 64 1961 19 1954
KCLT 84 1961 45 1911 68 1961 24 2014
1954
KGSP 85 1974 49 1966 66 2004 19 1954
1951
1923
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT from Friday morning through Friday
evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT
FIRE WEATHER...JAT/HG
CLIMATE...TDPHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 244 PM EDT THU NOV 3 2016 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-041845- AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- 244 PM EDT THU NOV 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FROST AND ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURES AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ..SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FROST WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019- 041845- ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON- MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE- EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 244 PM EDT THU NOV 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-041845- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT- 244 PM EDT THU NOV 3 2016 ...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ..FRIDAY...WILDFIRE DANGER POSSIBLE. SEE THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR DETAILS ON THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. HG
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 247 PM EDT THU NOV 3 2016 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-041000- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT- 247 PM EDT THU NOV 3 2016 ...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA... VERY DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION... NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY DRY FINE FUELS TO HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITIES ON WHETHER YOU CAN BURN TODAY. IF YOU DO BURN...USE EXTREME CAUTION SINCE FIRES CAN QUICKLY GET OUT OF HAND UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. GERAPETRITIS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Tellico fire burned more than 13,000 acres in the Nantahala area along the Swain County line.
The Tellico fire burned more than 13,000 acres in the Nantahala area along the Macon County line.
The Maple Springs Fire burned around 8000 acres in an area just north and northwest of Lake Santeetlah.
The Party Rock fire burned more than 7,000 acres in the Lake Lure/Chimney Rock/Bat Cave area. Chimney Rock State Park was closed throughout much of the month, while Chimney Rock village was evacuated multiple times during adverse fire weather conditions.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 667189, 667190, 667187, 667192.