A rapidly deepening storm center down to 964 MB on the afternoon of 11/2 was well southwest of Dixon Entrance. Although the storm weakened as it moved northward into the Gulf on the morning of 11/3, it was enough to cause wind in excess of 60 MPH for both Prince of Wales Island and the Ketchikan area on 11/3.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A rapidly deepening storm center down to 964 MB on the afternoon of 11/2 was well southwest of Dixon Entrance. Although the storm weakened as it moved northward into the Gulf on the morning of 11/3, it was enough to cause wind in excess of 60 MPH for both Prince of Wales Island and the Ketchikan area on 11/3. No damage was reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 2, 3:17 PM AKST, 8 hours 43 minutes earlier.
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
417 PM AKDT Wed Nov 2 2016
.SHORT TERM...A storm force low is approaching the extreme
southeastern gulf from the south as of this afternoon. This
powerful low is expected to remain offshore, but will spread storm
force winds over the southern coastal marine zones as well as
Clarence Strait over the course of the short term forecast period.
Elsewhere, gales or small craft conditions on the inside and
outside. Update to the forecast today moves the low a little more
quickly off to the northwest in the direction of Yakutat, thus
have increased winds over zone 17 as well as coastal marine zone
51 for tomorrow afternoon. Additionally, high winds are expected
over the western portions of Prince of Wales Island late tonight
through early tomorrow morning. Strong wind gusts will spread
north as well, beginning with zone 28, then expanding north to
include zones 26, 23, and finally zone 25 by tomorrow afternoon.
Most substantial change to the forecast was to delineate a
boundary between stratiform and convective. This was prompted by
lightning being detected in the post frontal environment - west of
Haida Gwaii as of early this afternoon. Have included areas of
isolated thunderstorms in the forecast - based on GFS Lifted Index
and CAPE from surface through 18k feet. Stratiform rain rates
should max out at moderate, but post frontal showers expected to
be heavy at times and this may be a concern for the highways - the
Haines Highway in particular. No winter weather advisory issued
with the afternoon forecast, but snow totals in showers are
extremely difficult to predict in mountainous terrain. Suffice to
say that if you are traveling on either of the highways today or
tomorrow, keep your guard up.
.LONG TERM...Active and more fall like weather pattern continues for
the next week. Multiple lows will follow a similar path to the one
for tonight, going across the North Pacific then up through the
eastern gulf and affecting the region every couple days. The
southern panhandle will see the most activity while the northern
panhandle will notice breaks between each system since they will
be moving up from the south.
Thursday night the low discussed above looks to remain in tact
just south of Yakutat so have small craft advisory level winds
for Yakutat Bay and 10-20mph winds over land. Also increased the
POP along the coast during this timeframe. The low should
diminishing by Friday morning, but the next one will already be
moving up from the south. Currently have gale force winds with
this system and will likely have strong winds of 40-45mph along
the southern outer coast. Expect another round of heavy rain as
well. The next low that moves up from the south Sunday night into
Monday.
Forecast confidence in timing of each system to move through is
slightly below normal as models differ somewhat with each one, but
confidence is high in the active and wet pattern, especially for
the southern zones.
&&
.AVIATION...850 mb jet core of up to 80 kts will result in
widespread LLWS as well as moderate, occasionally severe
turbulence from the surface up into the flight levels. Conditions
improving Thursday night. Severe turbulence and extremely gusty
conditions also expected in and around thunderstorm activity.
&&
.MARINE...Storm force winds over the eastern gulf will build seas
to 20 feet or higher over the southeastern gulf and coastal marine
zones. Westerly swell opposing the surface winds will make for
particularly steep, short period waves tonight. Swell re-orients
out of the south late tomorrow, making for slightly improved
conditions over the coastal marine zone from Cape Edgecumbe south,
but combined seas will still be up around 20 feet.
&&
.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
AKZ026.
High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ027.
STRONG WIND Thursday afternoon for AKZ025.
STRONG WIND from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for
AKZ023.
STRONG WIND from 1 AM AKDT Thursday through Thursday afternoon
for AKZ028.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-041-042.
Gale Warning for PKZ022-033>035-043-051.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-031-032-052-053.
&&
Fritsch/Ferrin
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Hydaburg AWOS measured gusts between 55 and 73 MPH on the morning of 11/3. No damage was reported.
Annette had gusts to to 64 MPH and Ketchikan Airport had gusts to 62 MPH on the morning of 11/3. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 664761, 664762.