A deepening upper level trough moved into Central NC during the afternoon resulting in weak destabilization and good deep layer shear. A few isolated thunderstorms moved into the Triad.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A deepening upper level trough moved into Central NC during the afternoon resulting in weak destabilization and good deep layer shear. A few isolated thunderstorms moved into the Triad. One storm became severe, resulting in wind damage and flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 21, 2:43 PM EST, 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 343 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Deepening low lifting up the mid Atlantic coast will drag a surface front and attendant second wave across the area this evening. A strong upper level low pressure area will swing over the region tonight through Monday, bringing continued unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/... As of 330 PM Saturday... Closed upper low and attendant mid/upper level trough over the Ohio and Tn Valleys will intensify as it moves slowly southeastward over the region. At the surface, deepening low lifting up the mid Atlantic coast will drag a surface front through the area this evening. In response to the upper trough moving into the region, a secondary wave of weak low pressure will develop along the front this evening and will move off the southern NC coast Sunday morning. DPVA, H5 falls on the order of 60 meters, and weak sfc moisture convergence along the sfc wave tracking south of Highway 64 will support scattered showers tracking west to east this evening and through the overnight hours, with a few thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early evening as scouring out of low-cloud deck has allowed for sufficient insolation to support weak destabilization (500-1000 SBCAPE). While weak instability will limit storm severity, good deep layer bulk shear of 40-50 kts this afternoon/evening could still support an isolated severe thunderstorm capable of producing strong wind gusts and small hail. lows overnight in the mid 50s NW to lower 60 se. && .SHORT TERM /Sunday and Sunday Night/... As of 330 PM Saturday... Unsettled weather will continue on Sunday as a deep upper low, 2 to 3 SD below normal, becomes centered over northeastern NC by Sunday night. DCVA and steepening mid-level lapse rates coincident with peak but tempered daytime heating will support scattered showers. Expect highest POPS invof of the upper level core and deepest moisture across the NE coastal plain/piedmont. Temperatures will continue to run below normal underneath the anomalous negative height anomalies. Highs ranging from upper 60s/near 70 northeast to mid 70s southwest. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/... As of 230 PM Saturday... Monday and Monday night: To start the day off on Monday, a closed upper low is progged to be over northeast NC and it will make its way eastward/northeastward throughout the day. As such, shower chances will continue, but will likely stay confined to the northeast half of the forecast area. Any precip is expected to come to an end Monday night as the upper low slowly pulls away from the region. Temps will remain below normal given the proximity of the upper low and associated cloud cover/precip, with highs expected to be in the lower 70s across the northeast and the mid/upper 70s further to the southwest. Overnight lows should fall into the mid 50s. Tuesday through Saturday: Conditions should dry out by Tuesday as the upper low pulls further away and shortwave ridging builds over the region. However, one model is now showing one last piece of energy rounding the backside of the departing upper low and triggering some precip across the northeast. Given the lack of other model support, have kept the forecast dry for now but will keep a close eye on it. Otherwise, the ridge that will build in, will keep the main storm track to our north, resulting in mostly dry conditions through the end of the week. There are indications that the ridge may weaken some towards the end of the forecast period, allowing an uptick in mostly diurnal type convection. However, there is some disagreement among the models with regard to this and therefore, will just show an increase in clouds and bring in a slight chance of precip. Temps will gradually moderate through this time frame, from mostly lower 80s on Tuesday to mid/upper 80s by for the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Thursday/... As of 158 PM Saturday... 24 hour TAF period: Largely in response to strong insolation, lingering CAD over the region continues to weaken. Ceilings have lifted to either MVFR or low-end VFR across the area, with most areas expected to lift to low-end VFR by 21z. As the mid-level trough begins to move over the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to re-develop across central NC between 21z-06z, resulting in local IFR conditions. More widespread IFR conditions will develop later tonight due to low clouds and some fog, esp invof areas that received heavier rain. The low ceilings/stratus will be slow to lift through the day on Sunday morning, with the potential for MVFR ceilings to persist at eastern/northeastern NC(KRDU and KRWI)until late in the afternoon. Meanwhile...western and southern most terminals could see VFR conditions return by mid morning. Beyond 18z Sunday: the risk for sub-VFR conditions with scattered showers will continue through at least mid-day Monday as a closed low gradually moves south across eastern NC. VFR conditions expected to return by Tuesday and remain for the mid-week period as the closed low moves east and short wave ridging moves over our region. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...CBL/Hartfield NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...CBL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 348 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 NCZ008>011-026>028-222000- GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE- 348 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ007-021>025-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-222000- PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH- CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT- WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 348 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 343 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 NCZ021-022-212030- GUILFORD NC-FORSYTH NC- 343 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN GUILFORD AND NORTHEASTERN FORSYTH COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT... AT 342 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WALNUT COVE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GREENSBORO...KERNERSVILLE...SUMMERFIELD...STOKESDALE...WALKERTOWN...LAKE BRANDT...BELEWS LAKE...LAKE JEANETTE MARINA...HAW RIVER STATE PARK AND BELEWS CREEK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. && LAT...LON 3626 8015 3625 7972 3601 7991 3621 8018 TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 299DEG 23KT 3629 8011 ELLIS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
355 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016
NCZ021-212100-
FORSYTH NC-
355 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016
...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF FORSYTH COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...
AT 354 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ENON...OR NEAR KING...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINSTON-SALEM...KERNERSVILLE...CLEMMONS...BERMUDA RUN...HUNTSVILLE...
LEWISVILLE...WALKERTOWN...RURAL HALL...BELEWS CREEK AND DONNAHA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&
LAT...LON 3611 8051 3612 8046 3614 8044 3621 8045
3622 8043 3624 8045 3626 8045 3626 8004
3601 8005 3603 8021 3600 8022 3600 8032
3597 8040 3599 8042 3601 8042 3606 8046
3604 8049 3605 8051 3609 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 299DEG 22KT 3620 8039
ELLISThe Roanoke radar (KFCX), 98 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:24 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A couple of trees were blown down along a swath from Summerfield to approximately 4 miles south of Summerfield.
Flash flooding occurred across an area just to the south and east of downtown Greensboro, including several stranded cars on Highway 29 near the Market Street overpass. Greensboro police also reported flash flooding at South Eugene Street and West Whittington Street.
Multiple trees were reportedly blown down on Johnny Shaw Road near Moncure.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 635916, 635915, 635917.