Late in the afternoon through the evening a slow moving group of severe storms moved through part of Northwest Kansas underneath an upper level disturbance. This setup was favorable for the development of four weak, short-lived tornadoes in Wichita county.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
Late in the afternoon through the evening a slow moving group of severe storms moved through part of Northwest Kansas underneath an upper level disturbance. This setup was favorable for the development of four weak, short-lived tornadoes in Wichita county. Since the tornadoes remained in open country no damage was reported with them. Large hail was very common with these storms. The largest hail size was 4.25 inches in diameter reported in south central Logan County. The prolonged heavy rainfall from the storms led to flash flooding along the Highway 25 corridor in northern Wichita and southern Logan counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 21, 1:13 PM CST, 3 hours 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 113 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1222 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016 Latest upper air and satellite data place a closed upper level low over the Pacific Northwest. Increased upper level moisture is seen rotating around the base of the closed low. Over the Desert Southwest a band of dry air/subsidence was also rotating around the closed low. This narrow corridor may not move over the Tri- State area until later this evening. To the east an expanse of low clouds and drizzle continued over the northeast half of the Tri- State area under a short wave ridge. At the surface a couple low pressures were located over Eastern Colorado, one over Denver and the other developing over Southeast Colorado. A dry line extended from near Denver, arcing southeast to the KS/CO border, then curving back southwest into New Mexico. East of the dry line a warm front was slowly moving northeast across the Tri-State area, as evident by the eroding stratus. For the rest of the afternoon expect thunderstorms to begin developing in the 2-3 PM MT time frame along the dry line. As the afternoon progresses expect the coverage to increase between the dry line and the warm front, where the instability axis will be located over the southern part of the area. Low-level and deep layer shear also increase through the afternoon, causing storm intensity to also increase. Storm movement will be to the northeast at 35 MPH, which is perpendicular to the instability axis. This will serve to limit the duration/extent of the severe storms. Expect storm coverage to peak around 5 PM MDT before storms move east of the area. Meanwhile overcast skies and drizzle are expected to continue north of the warm front. Main uncertainty today will be how far north will the warm front move during the afternoon. The further north the front moves, the more of the area will be impacted by severe weather. Regarding hazards for today, large hail up to baseball size will be possible with the strongest storms, as well as damaging winds and tornadoes. The best window of opportunity for tornadic development will be from roughly 5 PM to 7 PM MDT, although development may begin an hour earlier. This evening severe storm activity should move east of the area around 9 PM MDT. During the early evening storms may become elevated before moving east of the area. Have the highest chances for measurable precipitation east of highway 83 where the low levels will be saturated the deepest and the isentropic lift will be strongest. Overnight fog will develop, mainly along and east of Highway 25. The lowest visibilities will be around sunrise. Winds will turn more to the southeast as a pre-frontal trough moves through. Sunday morning fog and drizzle will continue over the east half of the area. Mid to late morning the fog will lift and the stratus will begin to erode as the warm front moves through. The drizzle should end by late morning. Sunday afternoon mixed layer CAPE increases east of a dry line between of Highway 25 and Highway 83. Meanwhile an upper level short wave trough moves over the dry line by mid afternoon, which should cause storms to begin firing along the dry line. Storm motion will again be to the northeast at 35 MPH. Deep layer shear will not be as strong as today, but am still expecting severe storms to develop. Storm coverage will expand along and east of the dry line during the latter half of the afternoon. Regarding hazards for Sunday afternoon, large hail up to ping-pong ball size is possible, along with damaging winds. Tornadoes will also be possible during the last couple hours of the afternoon as 0- 1km shear increases to 25 kts with the strengthening low level jet. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 112 PM MDT Sat May 21 2016 Thunderstorms will linger through Sunday evening then begin to diminish after midnight as the shortwave trough lifts north. However...surface cold front will move through overnight so cannot rule out an isolated shower/thunderstorm through the night. Southwesterly flow aloft Monday through Wednesday will result in occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms as a series of shortwave troughs move through. Currently the area is outlooked for severe weather by SPC only for Day 4 (Tuesday). The instability axis will be along and north of a Hill City to Yuma line with little to no instability south of that area. However the set up will be similar on Wednesday with the instability axis a bit further south perhaps. Thursday stands out as the day with the best upper forcing since the main upper low will be ejecting across the central Rockies and adjacent plains. Instability for severe weather may be limited by cloudiness due to low level easterly flow in place north of the surface front which will be over southwest Kansas. However given the strong forcing, weak to moderate instability and strong deep layer shear another round of severe weather cannot be ruled out on Thursday. The upper low, and accompanying chances of precipitation, will linger at least through Friday, then the models diverge next weekend with how fast to lift it out. All in all, a rather wet pattern can be expected for the long term period with temperatures near to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sat May 21 2016 VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. The low stratus is eroding on its southern edge this morning. It should clear KGLD by 18z, remaining just north of the site. KMCK will have MVFR ceilings for the first few hours of the TAF, then cloud bases will fall to IFR and should remain there through Sunday morning. A few of the models have the ceilings lifting of MVFR for a few hours during the night, however this seems unlikely. If this does occur, it could be in response to the warm front moving through since there will be a slight shift in the wind direction to the south at the same time cloud bases raise briefly. Overnight fog will develop at both sites, with the lowest visibility occurring at KGLD. The fog and stratus end mid to late morning Sunday. Strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon, but most if not all of the activity will remain south of KGLD. && .GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...JTL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 854 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-221500- YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS- DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE- GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW- 854 AM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016 /954 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO... EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... AREAS OF FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES THIS MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF A BREWSTER TO GOVE LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS, HOWEVER A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ANTICIPATE THE SEVERE WEATHER TO LAST UNTIL AROUND 9 PM MDT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 25. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE THE MAIN THREATS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. ANY WEATHER REPORTS THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA OR BY PHONE ARE GREATLY APPRECIATED. JTL
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 445 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016 COZ090-091-KSZ001-013-014-220200- YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE-SHERMAN-THOMAS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON... ST. FRANCIS...BIRD CITY...GOODLAND...COLBY 445 PM MDT SAT MAY 21 2016 /545 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016/ THROUGH 8 PM MDT (9 PM CDT)...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE. THIS WILL CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL ON WEST TO EAST ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 90 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:57 UTC.
11 hail, 4 tornado, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The hail size during this period ranged from quarter to ping-pong ball in size.
The hail sizes during this period ranged from nickel to hen egg size.
Estimated time of report from radar and size of hail stone from the picture on social media.
The hail sizes ranged from quarter to tennis ball size during this period.
The video of this tornado from storm chasers shows the tornado lasting less than a minute. The tornado occurred northeast of the CR F and CR 10 intersection. The tornadic circulation on radar indicates the tornado moved northeast during its lifetime. No damage was reported with this tornado since it remained over an open field.
Heavy rainfall from slow moving and training thunderstorms produced rainfall rates of an inch or more per hour for three consecutive hours. Total estimated rainfall amounts were around 3 to 5 inches over the flash flood area. The Emergency Manager estimated there to be four inches of water over Highway 25 where the highway crosses Chalk Creek in far northern Wichita county just south of the county line. This was reported an hour after the rainfall had ended.
Video of this tornado from storm chasers shows the tornado lasting a minute as it quickly moves from west to east, crossing Highway 25. The tornado quickly dissipates after crossing the highway. No damage was seen due to the tornado remaining over open fields.
The video from a storm chaser of this tornado shows the tornado lasting less than a minute over an open field. Radar data of this tornado shows the tornadic rotation moving northeast. The location of the tornado is halfway between CR G and CR F just west of CR 10.
Heavy rainfall from slow moving training thunderstorms produced rainfall rates of an inch or more per hour for three consecutive hours with estimated rainfall amounts around three to five inches over the flash flood area. The Emergency Manager estimated eight inches of water over Highway 25 where the highway crosses Twin Butte Creek. This was reported an hour after the rainfall had ended.
A trained spotter reported a brief tornado and no damage. The tornadic circulation on radar indicated the tornado was moving toward the northeast. The path of the tornado was in between CR D and CR B just east of CR 13 close to a farm.
The hail sizes ranged from nickel to quarter size.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Kansas, 2016Warnings in Kansas, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 633624, 633625, 633626, 633627, 633628, 633629, 633640, 633782, 633642, 633630, 633635, 633783, 633631, 633641, 633632, 633633, 633634.