Scattered thunderstorms developed along a retreating frontal zone in a favorable convective environment. The steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate instability, and strong deep layer shear resulted in several thunderstorms becoming severe.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed along a retreating frontal zone in a favorable convective environment. The steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate instability, and strong deep layer shear resulted in several thunderstorms becoming severe.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 14, 1:20 PM EST, 38 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 220 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER. A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOVER NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA VIRGINIA BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... STALL OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY... THEN PUSH TO OUR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 220 PM MONDAY... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOW STRATUS STILL IN PLACE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER OF NC... THE STRATUS ELSEWHERE HAS LIFTED AND MIXED OUT... ALLOWING FOR GOOD HEATING OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS... WITH SHOWERS POPPING UP FROM THE TRIANGLE SW TOWARD ROCKINGHAM. THESE WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY HEAD ENE INTO MARKEDLY MORE MOIST (DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S) AND UNSTABLE AIR IN THE ERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WEAK VORTICITY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS -- SE OF THE POTENT UPPER WAVE NOW OVER CENTRAL KY/TN - - AND ITS ATTENDANT DPVA ALONG WITH A MAX IN STJ-INDUCED UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE EXTRA DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THIS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY NEAR 7.5 C/KM AND RISING... WITH INCOMING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM... AND MLCAPE IS ALREADY UP TO 1500 J/KG WITH 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR... SO SEE NO REASON WHY THESE WON'T CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE... PARTICULARLY WITH -10C TO -30C LAYER CAPE UP TO 400 J/KG. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THEN... THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH VA/NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... LIKELY GENERATING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO PIVOT ENE OVER WRN/NRN NC WITH LESSER COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST... WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. DESPITE THE DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARMTH NEAR AND SOON AFTER SUNSET AS WELL AS THE ANTICIPATED DIP IN THE HIGH MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THE BETTER KINEMATICS SHOULD HELP BOOST STORM INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT AREAWIDE... WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. FOLLOWING THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR TIMING... WE SHOULD SEE STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE NE CWA NEAR OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH A CLEARING TREND FROM SW TO NE LATE. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NE CWA COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG OR SHALLOW STRATUS BEFORE THE DRIER DEWPOINTS ARRIVE VERY LATE TONIGHT... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. AFTER HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE VA BORDER TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE... EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S (NW TO SE). -GIH && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 155 PM MONDAY... TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL S/W AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...ALLOWING A S/W RIDGE TO CROSS OUR REGION. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY- PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN AND WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY FROM THE MID 70S FAR NE WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO DEPART...TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. CONTINUED MILD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS 55-60. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...S/W RIDGE MOVES EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL FORCE A SFC COLD FRONT TO SWING ACROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE ADVECTION; THUS...EXPECT THE FRONT TO CROSS CENTRAL NC DRY THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE EAST CONSIDERING THE TIME OF DAY THAT THE FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION. IF THE FASTER GFS/NAM SOLUTION VERIFIES...850MB TROUGH EXITS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FEATURE...DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW WILL INITIALLY OFFSET/LIMIT THE COLD AIR. WITH THICKNESSES COMPARABLE TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND LOW LEVEL SW-WESTERLY FLOW FACTORED IN...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MARCH 16TH. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 155 PM MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO WANE THIS PERIOD AS UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDER GOES A CHANGE. A SERIES OF S/W AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION THU AND FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED WETTER WITH THE LEAD S/W AND SFC FRONT THOUGH THIS MAY BE OVERDONE CONSIDERING MOISTURE ADVECTION LIMITED DUE TO WLY FLOW. STILL COULD SEE A BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR TWO ON THU. NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A DRY AIR RIDGE BUILDS/EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SFC RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY WHILE A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. S/W TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO INDUCE SFC LOW GENERATION OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY...LIFTING ACROSS THE SE U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A DECENT ROUND OF RAIN TO THE CAROLINAS. WILL LIKELY SEE COOLER/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OCCUR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SFC PATTERN SIGNALS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID OR INSITU DAMMING EVENT. THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN THREAT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TRENDED DOWNWARD...STARTING OUT IN THE 70S THURSDAY...60S FRIDAY...AND 50S/LOWER 60S SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AND 50S MONDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S EXPECTED WITH 30S POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1205 PM MONDAY... ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE... BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BRING THEIR OWN AVIATION HAZARDS WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL. STUBBORN IFR/LIFR STRATUS PERSISTS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE NOW STALLED ACROSS FAR NRN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IFR CONDITIONS AT INT/GSO AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO IMPROVE AND ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR AT THE START OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS BASED AT 3 000 TO 4 000 AGL IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON... MOST LIKELY AFFECTING FAY WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE AT RDU/RWI AND AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE AT INT/GSO. HOWEVER... ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING... AND THIS WILL PARTICULARLY AFFECT INT/GSO WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER THREAT AT RDU/RWI/FAY. THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... EXITING OUR NORTHEAST SOON AFTER 1 AM/05Z. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING (FROM 08Z TO 16Z)... WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WNW OR NW WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH SAT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA... BUT ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WOULD BE BRIEF. -GIH && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 16TH. RDU 86/1945 GSO 85/1945 FAY 87/1945 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...HARTFIELD CLIMATE...RAH
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1015 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 NCZ011-026>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-151215- HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 1015 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 1 PM AND 6 PM. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ007>010-021>025-151215- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE- DURHAM- 1015 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER... AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 1 PM AND 6 PM. ANOTHER BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 31 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:58 UTC.
8 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong winds from a thunderstorm produced property damage, including minor siding damage and a displaced AC unit, 2 miles southwest of Fuquay-Varina.
Hail to the size of quarters was reported along a swath from 5 miles east-southeast of Hillsborough northeast to the Durham county line. The hail lasted approximately 10 minutes.
Hail up to the size of golf balls was reported along a swath from Duke Homestead Boulevard near Highway 157 to approximately 5 miles west-northwest of Gorman.
Hail up to the size of quarters was reported 2 miles south-southwest of Butner.
Hail up to the size of quarters was reported along a swath from the BP station in Harpers Crossroads to Highway 64 and Bob Horton Road.
Hail up to the size of quarters was reported at Roberts Service Mart near Bushy Fork.
Hail up to the size of quarters was reported along a swath from Ray Road near Wood Valley to the intersection of Pearces Road and Dukes Lake Road.
Hail up to half-dollar size was reported along a swath from 2 miles west-southwest of Durham to 2 miles north-northwest of Durham.
Hail up to the size of golf balls was reported along a swath from Youngsville Fire Station 1 to approximately 4 miles northwest of Youngsville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, March 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 626241, 626233, 626234, 626235, 626236, 626237, 626238, 626239, 626240.