An upper level low pressure system spinning across southern Kentucky helped bring two rounds of storms across eastern Kentucky. The preceding line produced isolated severe wind damage from Johnson and Floyd through Pike Counties.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
An upper level low pressure system spinning across southern Kentucky helped bring two rounds of storms across eastern Kentucky. The preceding line produced isolated severe wind damage from Johnson and Floyd through Pike Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 14, 12:03 PM EST, 2 hours 42 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 103 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY MAKING HEADWAY TOWARD INTERSTATE 75 AHEAD OF A WOUND-UP UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TENNESSEE. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION ONGOING FARTHER WEST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY AS RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND GUSTY WINDS SUGGEST THIS MORNING/S INVERSION HAS MIXED OUT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES GIVEN THIS SURFACE-BASED HEATING AND COOLING MID-LEVELS ALOFT WILL AID TO INCREASING INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH SHEAR REMAINS MODEST. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 UPPER LOW CHURNING THROUGH NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PLENTY OF INSOLATION THIS MORNING COUPLED WITH UPPER COOLING UNDERNEATH THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. DESPITE MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAXING OUT IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE...APPRECIABLE DYNAMIC COOLING/LIFT ALONG WITH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...BOTH INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL OCCUR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK OUT OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND OR WIND GUSTS. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY AROUND 12Z ON TUESDAY...EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEK...WITH DAY TIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TODAY AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY. TODAYS TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND WINDS SHIFT BACK TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. IN FACT THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS FEATURE BEING PUSHED ALONG WITH A 140 KNOT JET NOSING INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY ALONG THE BASE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE FALLS MORE ON THE EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT HOURS BUT WITH THE FORCING FROM THE FRONT ITSELF...MID LEVEL CAPE SHOULD BE TAPPED INTO WITH MODEST SHEAR AS WELL. DESPITE SOME DRY AIR...ENOUGH INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS FOR TUESDAY TO AT LEAST LOW CHANCE. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING...A STRONG CLOSED LOW SETS UP OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM BECOMING ACTIVE AND THE NORTHERN STREAM DISPLAYING A BLOCKING PATTERN...KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND COOLER TEMPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WHILE THE GFS AND EURO SEEM TO CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS OVER THIS SCENARIO AND THUS REMAINED CLOSE TO THE ALL MODEL BLEND SOLUTION FOR POPS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER THIS EVENING. VFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD STRONG IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. OUTSIDE OF ROGUE WIND GUSTS UNDERNEATH THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL VEER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 MPH. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER AVIATION...GUSEMAN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1231 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-151945- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON... MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG... BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN... SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON... SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE... JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD... MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN... ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 1231 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AR/GUSEMAN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
211 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
KYZ088-112-114>117-141900-
PERRY-OWSLEY-LESLIE-HARLAN-BREATHITT-CLAY-
211 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PERRY...OWSLEY...
LESLIE...HARLAN...BREATHITT...AND CLAY COUNTIES IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY...
AT 209 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BRIGHTSHADE TO TACKY TOWN TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HENSLEY STORE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAZARD...HARLAN...HYDEN...LOYALL...EVARTS...BUCKHORN...WALLINS CREEK...
DALEY...SUNSHINE...SMITH...WENDOVER...TWAY...MOSLEY BEND...SHIELDS...SPRUCE
PINE...GRAYS KNOB...PEEPACE STORE...MOZELLE...KENVIR AND HOSKINSTON.
THIS INCLUDES HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27 AND 59.
&&
LAT...LON 3681 8351 3685 8348 3690 8351 3692 8349
3695 8354 3696 8364 3701 8373 3754 8350
3729 8320 3701 8308 3699 8314 3696 8315
3698 8307 3685 8301 3685 8307 3683 8310
3674 8314 3670 8334 3667 8343
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 205DEG 38KT 3703 8367 3686 8351 3663 8340
RAYSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
220 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
KYZ052-141845-
ROWAN-
220 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ROWAN COUNTY IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY...
AT 218 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER COGSWELL...OR
JUST SOUTHWEST OF MOREHEAD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOREHEAD...HAYS CROSSING...CHRISTY...GATES...RODBURN...WALTZ...HALDEMAN...
CLEARFIELD...MUNSON...BRANDY...HILDA...CRANSTON...FREESTONE...BLUESTONE...
COGSWELL...TRIPLETT AND LAKEVIEW HEIGHTS.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 64 IN EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
135 AND 149.
&&
LAT...LON 3832 8336 3832 8334 3823 8330 3808 8347
3809 8350 3807 8351 3810 8353 3811 8352
3812 8353 3829 8351 3832 8349 3835 8350
3836 8346 3839 8344 3840 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 205DEG 25KT 3811 8350
RAYSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
324 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
KYZ104-106-107-109-110-113-119-120-142015-
FLOYD-KNOTT-ELLIOTT-MARTIN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-PIKE-
324 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FLOYD...KNOTT...
ELLIOTT...MARTIN...MORGAN...JOHNSON...MAGOFFIN...AND PIKE COUNTIES
IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...
AT 322 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM REXVILLE TO HENDRICKS TO LARKSLANE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PAINTSVILLE...WEST LIBERTY...PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...INEZ...SANDY
HOOK...MASON...HENRY...ESTILL...LEWIS...COAL RUN VILLAGE...MARTIN...PIPPA
PASSES...WAYLAND...WARFIELD...ALLEN...BROWNLOW...GORDON FORD...CORN FORK
HOLLOW AND BRADBURY.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN FLOYD COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 14.
KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN KNOTT COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND 20.
U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN FLOYD COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 21.
U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN JOHNSON COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 16.
U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN PIKE COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27 AND 32.
&&
LAT...LON 3730 8291 3752 8308 3750 8295 3758 8301
3763 8309 3761 8313 3784 8345 3813 8322
3827 8318 3818 8305 3821 8301 3816 8291
3811 8289 3800 8302 3796 8300 3800 8293
3788 8261 3796 8253 3776 8231 3766 8227
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 211DEG 40KT 3784 8338 3768 8314 3738 8291
RAYSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
341 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
KYZ110-113-118>120-142015-
FLOYD-KNOTT-MARTIN-LETCHER-PIKE-
341 PM EDT MON MAR 14 2016
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FLOYD...KNOTT...
MARTIN...LETCHER...AND PIKE COUNTIES...
AT 340 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TO NEAR WISE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PIKEVILLE...ESTILL...JENKINS...COAL RUN VILLAGE...ELKHORN CITY...
WHEELWRIGHT...FLEMING-NEON...FOREST HILLS...WAYLAND...GREENLEAF...CHLOE...
THREEFORKS...EHKHORN MINE...FISHTRAP LAKE...EAST MCDOWELL...BUCKINGHAM...
GARDEN VILLAGE...SPEIGHT...WHITEPOST AND CEDARVILLE.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
U.S. HIGHWAY 119 IN PIKE COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 24.
U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN FLOYD COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 7.
U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN LETCHER COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 7.
U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN PIKE COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 32.
&&
LAT...LON 3727 8235 3723 8250 3713 8269 3747 8283
3783 8241 3781 8240 3776 8231 3774 8233
3767 8230 3765 8223 3762 8221 3765 8218
3762 8218 3758 8213 3755 8213 3756 8208
3753 8205 3755 8204 3754 8197 3753 8198
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 217DEG 35KT 3749 8280 3697 8261
RAYThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 50 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:47 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
County dispatch reported trees down from Staffordsville to Van Lear as a line of thunderstorms moved through.
A trained spotter observed multiple trees down near Lancer after a line of thunderstorms moved through town.
Dispatch relayed a report of a tree down in Mouthcard.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 614926, 614928, 614930.