Scattered thunderstorms developed across western North Carolina during the afternoon. One brief severe storm occurred in Burke County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed across western North Carolina during the afternoon. One brief severe storm occurred in Burke County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 27, 10:10 AM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1110 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the region and shift east before a
cold front sweeps in tonight. This front will become stationary
early Tuesday leading to enhanced precipitation chances. High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying. Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 11 AM Monday: Latest SPC mesoscale analysis indicated a
gradient of CAPE from less than 500 J/kg along the I-40 corridor to
2000 J/kg across the upper Savannah River Valley. Recent radar
images showed isolated convection develop across the east facing
slopes of the mtns. Coverage across the mtns will increase through
the afternoon hours, with sct coverage spreading across the
foothills and Piedmont later this afternoon and evening. Steering
flow indicates that storms will move from west to east, with speeds
around 10 kts. It is possible that a few areas may see training and
slow moving cells, resulting in rounds of heavy downpours. I will
update the forecast to adjust PoPs to latest timing and placement of
convection and cloud cover. Overall, the current temperature
forecast appears on track.
As of 645 AM EDT Monday: Tweaked pops across the southwest NC
mtns to reflect latest radar trends. Also adjust t/td to better
align with recent obs. Otherwise, current fcst remains on track
for this update. No other changes were needed/made.
As of 330 AM EDT Monday: A broad/elongated H5 anticyclone
prevails across much of the southern CONUS while a closed low
and associated trof sweep across southern Ontario, southward over
the upper Midwest states. At the surface, high pressure remains
draped atop the mid Atlantic while a cold front slides into the
upper MS river valley. Pattern evolution through the near term
features an associated prefrontal trof advecting east into the
NC high terrain this afternoon/evening before slowly propagating
into the NC/SC piedmont as well as northeast GA overnight, all
beneath a region of upper height falls thanks to the approaching
H5 trof axis. The surface front itself looks to lag well behind,
possibly just moving through the OH valley by periods end.
As for today, guidance favors increasing convection amongst a
destabilizing warm sector, likely enhanced by the approaching H5
height falls as well as the surface trof. Early on profiles are
quite dry with steep low/mid level lapse rates supporting upwards
of 1.5-2k j/kg SBCAPE, however profiles moisten sharply later
this afternoon into the evening as guidance favors advection of
an enhanced pwat airmass into the region. Weak H5 flow that is
increasingly parallel to the intruding surface trof is supportive
of slow moving, and possibly training convection. Thus, the
fcst will feature scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms
initiating over the mtns by early afternoon, spreading east
into northeast GA and the NC/SC foothills and piedmont through
the remainder of the evening and early morning hours on Tuesday.
As for the HWO, will mention possibility for localized heavy rain
and or flooding as well as isolated severe chances tied to peak
heating/instability with the highest chances for both residing
over the NC/SC/GA high terrain. Further east into the piedmont
it looks as if initiation will be delayed past peak heating by
CIN associated with the departing surface ridge and the lack of
a triggering mechanism, thus severe looks less likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Monday: A prefrontal trough will stall just south and
east of the CWFA Tuesday as the cold front drops to near the spine
of the Appalachians. Moisture pooling along the prefrontal trough
will keep the best instability and forcing over the southern and
eastern CWFA. Therefore...have likely PoP south of I-85 with chance
elsewhere. Moderate instability may result southeast of I-85 with
moderate shear possible as well. Cannot rule out a severe storm, but
there is some uncertainty on where the best instability and shear
set up, so it is still to early to tell if severe storms will be
more scattered or organized. Drier air moves in Tuesday night as the
cold front moves in from the NW keeping a diurnal trend to the
convection. Highs will be near normal northern tier and below normal
elsewhere. Lows will be near normal.
The cold front stalls across the area Wednesday with a wave of low
pressure forming along the front. Moisture, and resulting
instability, will be greater south and east of the front with lower
amounts to the north. There is some disagreement in the guidance on
the location of the front and resulting convection. Guidance blend
comes up with scattered convection from the Charlotte Metro area
southwest to the Lakelands, with isolated convection to the north.
Highs will return to near normal levels with lows nearly steady near
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 AM Sunday: Guidance in good agreement aloft showing
eastern trough Rocky Mountain ridge remaining in place through the
period. At the surface, a frontal system remains stalled near or
over the area Thursday and Friday. A cold front drops into the area
Saturday and merges with the stalled front on Sunday. Moisture and
instability will favor the eastern and southern portions of the CWFA
closer to the stalled front on Thursday and Friday. Expect mainly
diurnal scattered convection there with isolated convection to the
west. Precip chances increase Saturday and Sunday as the second
front drops into the area with increasing moisture inflow across the
area and good forcing. Expect scattered mainly diurnal convection
Saturday with likely coverage mountains and good chance elsewhere on
Sunday. Will have to keep an eye on the weekend systems and there
could be enough forcing and shear for organized convection, and
enough moisture and potentially training cells to increase the flood
potential. Near normal temps Thursday will rise a little above
normal for Friday and Saturday, then drop back to near normal for
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT: VFR through the vast majority of the taf cycle. Surface
high pressure starting its retreat to the east allowing southerly
flow to initiate this morning. Sct low/mid vfr beneath high clouds
will persist through the first few hours of the taf cycle before
low vfr cu prevails. A prefrontal trof will move into western NC
this afternoon, spreading convection east into the NC/SC piedmont
by late afternoon to early evening. Therefore taf features
lowering vfr stratocu within a tsra tempo from 22-02z, ahead of a
prevailing shra with a tsra prob30 through early morning. Winds
through the period will remain light and southerly with gusting
possible adjacent to any stronger/deeper convection.
Elsewhere: Trends similar to that of KCLT above as it pertains to
afternoon/evening convection. Current low stratus along the Blue
Ridge southward into northeast GA and the SC Upstate, will persist
through much of the morning however lifting slightly within the next
2 hours. Opted to remove any fog mention from previous taf set as
persistent sky cover has worked to keep td depressions elevated.
As stated above, convection will initiate this afternoon ahead of
a prefrontal trof, before sweeping east over the remainder of the
region this afternoon/evening. All sites feature shra/vcts and
tempos for tsra with timing based upon cam consensus as well as
latest nam. Winds will remain generally light and southerly at
all sites with gusting possible adjacent to deeper convection,
slowly veering to the wsw late in the period.
Outlook: Precipitation chances will persist into Tuesday as frontal
moisture remains in the vicinity leading to possible tsra related
restrictions. Diurnally favored shra/tsra will return mid/late
week leading to additional restrictions by way of convection and
morning fog/cigs.
Confidence Table...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 92%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 94%
KAVL High 100% High 98% Med 67% Med 69%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 94%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 88%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDGHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 420 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-280830- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER- IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA- ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 420 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. IF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS... EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING COULD RESULT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
114 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
NCZ053-064-065-509-SCZ002-003-006-271745-
BUNCOMBE NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-HENDERSON NC-POLK MOUNTAINS NC-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-
114 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE...WESTERN POLK...HENDERSON...NORTHEASTERN
PICKENS AND NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...
AT 113 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF BREVARD...AND MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.
LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HENDERSONVILLE...BREVARD...ARDEN...MILLS RIVER...FLETCHER...TRAVELERS
REST...FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH...FAIRVIEW IN BUNCOMBE COUNTY AND
SLATER-MARIETTA.
PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.
&&
LAT...LON 3556 8225 3555 8222 3552 8222 3552 8223
3550 8223 3545 8228 3540 8227 3539 8226
3540 8224 3533 8225 3529 8229 3523 8227
3490 8233 3507 8278 3554 8270 3558 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 279DEG 27KT 3551 8267 3514 8271
KRENTZThe Greer radar (KGSP), 69 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:14 UTC.
1 lightning, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Spotter reported lightning struck near a home on Chestnut Ridge Rd, igniting a structure fire.
Public reported quarter size hail just north of I-40 near exit 111.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, June 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 646304, 646303.