Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 26, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
458 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will weaken over the region and shift east before a
cold front sweeps in Monday night. This front will become stationary
early Tuesday leading to enhanced precipitation chances. High
pressure should build in from the north for the middle part of next
week leading to a brief period of drying.  Diurnal precipitation
chances will resume through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
2100 UTC Update: Pops and QPF were reduced along the blue ridge per
radar trends, which show convection presently limited to the
southwest NC mountains.

At 235 PM EDT...satellite imagery shows a cu field across the fcst
area that has developed in the easterly low level flow. A lack of
clouds over the eastern Piedmont is indicative of the lack of
instability over the middle part of NC. Still expect to see some
deep convection over the mtns thru the afternoon, aided by the weak
easterly upslope, and in fact the KGSP radar has detected some
development over the Balsams. A small chance of precip will also be
kept down across the Savannah River basin where the gradient in sfc
CAPE remains.

Over the next 24 hours, we should see a change in the upper pattern
across the Srn Appalachians/western Carolinas. A positively-tilted
upper ridge overhead this evening will gradually break down/
retrograde thru Monday as an upper trof digs over the Gt
Lakes/Midwest. The balance of the overnight hours should be
relatively quiet once any convection that forms late in the day
weakens diurnally. Will hold onto a small precip chance over the
western mountains where a weak return flow of moisture will persist.
The main concern for Monday will be the extent and strength of
convection that may develop after sufficient boundary layer heating.
The new model guidance indicates that a short wave will probably
remain to our NW by the end of the day, along with a pre-frontal sfc
trof that probably will not reach the mtns until late afternoon. As
a result, the best environment for deep convection and strong
thunderstorms will remain to our N and W through late in the day.
Cannot rule out some stronger storms moving into the mtns from
northeast TN, particularly if some organization happens late in the
day over the Cumberland Plateau, however confidence is no better
than it has been in the last few days, so it will not be mentioned
in the HWO. Confidence is only average in the coverage of precip
Monday afternoon as well. Have kept the likely precip probability
mainly because of the guidance and neighbors, but this borders on
ignoring the forecast tenet that suggests leaning toward drier model
solutions when in a drought. The last precip event was underwhelming
and the thought is that the new scenario is more likely to be drier
rather than wetter than fcst. Expect only scattered coverage at best
south/east of I-85 in the afternoon. High temps will be close to
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday: The departure of the prefrontal trough continues
to be depicted at varying speeds by the various models, but the
consensus is that it will move thru the area rather slowly Mon night
and Tue. It likely will continue to provide enough lift to permit
some weak/elevated convection Monday night. The surface cold front
will remain over the lower Ohio Valley, and NAM/GFS depict weak waves
at 500mb (possibly MCVs) moving ahead of the front overnight,
possibly also enhancing lift. Chance to likely PoPs are maintained
thru early Tue. Appreciable drying and downsloping winds do not kick
in until later Tue, so some diurnal destabilization is expected, with
PoPs to match. Max temps will be held down a category or two below
normal by lingering cloud cover.

The cold front pushes into TN and wrn VA by Wed morning, but it runs
out of steam before crossing the mountains into our CWFA. With the
trough axis just to our east and with dewpoints returning to the
upper 50s and lower 60s, convection is expected to be more isolated
and mainly confined to the Piedmont. Temps however will warm back to
around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Sunday...Pretty good confidence is had over the ext
range period. The op models are showing good agreement with the
large scale subtrop high ridged out across the wrn states and a broad
ulvl trof encompassing the ern conus. This pattern will change
little over the period...with gradual height rises across the east
coast and continued nebulus deep layered flow over the region.

At the low levels...an Atl ridge will nose into the se region and
increase moist flux to some degree. This m/flux is suspect due to
deep convec response seen along an offshore stationary bndry. Yet
there will be enuf existing sfc-based moisture to spawn sct
afternoon upslope -shra/tstms and isol/sct convec elsewhere.
Soundings show low-end instability thru Fri as the mlvls warm...so
dont expect much more than llvl thermally driven pusle-type storms.
On Sat...a weak bndry pushes into the NC mtns as a cP sfc high
builds across the upper Midwest. Meanwhile...the models have been
consistent with developing a eastward propagating wave along this
bndry across the srn plains...which looks to make it to the NC mtns
by late Sat into Sun. There will be better shear along with moderate
CAPE values associated with this feature...so the late weekend
should have better coverage and stronger perhaps more organized
tstms...mainly across the higher terrain and nrn zones. Max and min
temps shud rise slightly each day yet remain arnd normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT...VFR should prevail through the period. Low convective
clouds with a base currently around 040 should gradually lift as the
boundary layer deepens through late afternoon. Expect this to form a
temporary VFR ceiling, until 22Z or so when clouds should scatter
out even more. A light wind should favor a NE direction. After
sunset, much of the remaining low clouds will dissipate. Wind may go
calm. On Monday, low clouds should develop again with boundary layer
heating by mid-morning. Think any shower development will not reach
the TAF site until after 18Z. Wind should be light from the SW.

Elsewhere...similar to KCLT. The NC mountains should have some
valley fog around daybreak. This could impact KAVL, but confidence
is not high enough to include right now. Convection should develop
by the middle part of the day on Monday over the higher terrain.
Will handle this with a PROB30 at KAVL and KHKY...and will leave the
others alone.

Outlook: Better shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected on
Monday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the NW. Scattered
convection could linger into Tue. Diurnal TSTM chances will build
again on Thursday afternoon. Restrictions should be confined to
thunderstorms, fog in the wake of heavy rainfall, and river valley
stratus each morning.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   67%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  98%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
358 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-
505-507-509-SCZ001>005-010-272000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-ANDERSON-
358 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND WESTERN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ006>009-
011>014-019-272000-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
358 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
EASTERN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

WIMBERLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

NCZ051-059-262130-
NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN NC-
508 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND
EASTERN SWAIN COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 506 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF BRYSON CITY...OR NEAR OCONALUFTEE...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... BRYSON CITY...CHEROKEE...SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-OCONALUFTEE...SMOKY MOUNTAINS-DEEP CREEK...SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
NEWFOUND GAP...SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CLINGMANS DOME...B.R. PARKWAY-SMOKY
MOUNTAINS TO BALSAM GAP... ALARKA...LUADA AND WHITTIER.

IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE.
OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH
AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING WIRED ELECTRONIC DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO
UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 8339 3552 8321 3530 8332 3531 8332
      3533 8334 3533 8340 3532 8342 3541 8358
      3543 8359 3543 8360
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 032DEG 11KT 3551 8335

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
532 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

NCZ051-059-062-262200-
NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN NC-MACON NC-
532 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...
SOUTHEASTERN SWAIN AND NORTHEASTERN MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
EDT...

AT 532 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES WEST OF SYLVA...OR 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF DILLSBORO...MOVING
SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BRYSON
CITY...WEBSTER...DILLSBORO...CHEROKEE...ALARKA...
BURNINGTOWN...COWEE AND ELLIJAY.

HALF INCH HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3549 8339 3543 8318 3514 8326 3525 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 021DEG 14KT 3540 8332

HG