Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, June 26, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A cold front will back southwest into extreme northern Nebraska this
evening then further west to the high plains this week to be the
focus for thunderstorm development. Temperatures will be closer to
seasonal norms for the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Forecast challenge is pops. This evening good instability exists
where visible satellite show cumulus forming. Not much for vertical
development currently but sufficient cape and with the heating an
isolated thunderstorms in the eastern Panhandle and southwest is
possible through this evening. Boundary layer moisture is limited
where thunderstorms that do form will be high based with a few
storms expected to develop and a severe threat for damaging winds
through sunset.

Additional thunderstorms are possible tonight across the north. The
cold front moving through South Dakota's will move into far northern
Nebraska this evening. The front will be the focus for general,
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development overnight across the
north in areas generally along and north of Highway 20.
Thunderstorms that do form will also be high based and capable of
producing strong winds. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s
in the far northwest to middle 60s southeast.

Monday as the front moves south easterly winds return moisture where
there will be a better chance for rain as thunderstorms redevelop
and move southeast. There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms
generally into areas west of Highway 83. Temperatures will be more
seasonable with high temperatures into the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Beginning 00z Tuesday.  Active northwest flow will direct a series
of disturbances across the Sandhills region of Nebraska and work in
conjunction with favorable shear...unstable conditions and
sufficient lower tropospheric moisture to promote near daily chances
of thundershowers through much of the extend.  The periods of
highest pops are tied when the models have decent agreement of
convective systems passing through the forecast area.  At least
initially...the greatest chances of widespread qpf comes Tuesday
evening and early Wednesday.

Monday evening a severe threat remains across sw Nebraska and
portions of the southeastern Panhandle as storms form across the
high plains and drift southeast into the forecast area where the
best instability and shear parameters line up.  Timing on the
convection is questionable...thus will maintain at least a slight
chance mention into Tuesday across our south.  Tuesday
afternoon/evening has the potential to see widespread convection as
the models continue to depict a solution where solid moisture
combines with a moderately unstable atmosphere and more than ample
deep shear /50kts/ to promote storm development.  The initial
development is expected within the Black Hills region where
supercells are possible...but in time the environment will favor a
transition to a more linear system /cool pool driven/ as it dives
southeast into the Sandhills region.  The development of a low level
jet is shown to help maintain the convective system further into the
overnight. Large hail and gusty winds would accompany the convective
complex.  The latest day 3 SPC severe thunderstorm outlook has mich
of our western cwa highlighted in a slight risk.

For Wednesday and beyond...the northwest flow will continue to
direct additional disturbances across the region and with good low
level tropospheric moisture in place...additional chances of storms
will be possible.  The thunderstorms will be diurnally driven with
most of the activity impacting the CWA during the afternoon through
overnight time period...but due to timing differences in the
models...we cannot rule out some convection lingering well into the
morning/day hours.  Outside of smoothing the convective
blobs...there was little change to the extended blended procedure.

Temperatures through the extended are forecast to be near
seasonal...but if clouds remain in the wake of a convective
system...highs would be impacted.  Highs in the 80s are largely
forecast with lows in the 50-60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

An enhanced potential for showers and thunderstorms late this
evening into Monday at kvtn and on monday at klbf. A weak cold
front will sag south late tonight and move into southwest nebraska
monday afternoon. Mainly vfr conditions except near thundertstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

High flow remain on the North Platte River at Lewellen. There will
be minor flunctuation where additional rainfall this week will
require attention as the gage is forecast to be within two tenths of
the flood stage of 7.5 feet.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Keck
SHORT TERM...Keck
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Roberg
HYDROLOGY...Keck

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
308 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-272015-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
308 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016 /208 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING WEST OF A LINE FROM CODY TO THEDFORD... STAPLETON...NORTH
PLATTE AND HAYES CENTER. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE HIGH
BASED AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING AND BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT.

ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER
AT LEWELLEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL BACK WEST TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY. THE SLIGHT RISK
WILL EXPAND FURTHER EAST TO INCLUDE AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 ON TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

BY MID WEEK THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO
LATE NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
EVOLVE INTO COMPLEXES THAT MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOME
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE STAGNANT PATTERN
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER
AT LEWELLEN. AT THIS TIME...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
441 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

NEZ023-262330-
GRANT NE-
441 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRANT AND
SOUTHWESTERN HOOKER COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 440 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HYANNIS...OR 21 MILES NORTH OF ARTHUR...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRATT LAKE...SPRING VALLEY LAKE AND COGILL LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 151 AND 154.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4199 10143 4177 10142 4177 10143 4180 10173
      4196 10174
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 278DEG 11KT 4188 10164

TAYLOR