Storms initially fired along a lee side surface trough during the afternoon on the 22nd, with convection continuing through the late evening and early morning hours of the|23rd as a A weakening MCS over Kentucky moved into the area. Sporadic wind damage and quarter size hail were observed with the strongest storms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Storms initially fired along a lee side surface trough during the afternoon on the 22nd, with convection continuing through the late evening and early morning hours of the|23rd as a A weakening MCS over Kentucky moved into the area. Sporadic wind damage and quarter size hail were observed with the strongest storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 22, 1:38 PM EST, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 238 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...An active northwest flow aloft will prevail over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday. A back door cold front will progress southward through the region Friday into Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /Today and tonight/... As of 100 PM Wednesday... A dry low-level airmass (925 mb Td <= 15C) and broken upper level cloud cover (primarily N/NE) will hinder diurnal destabilization through early to mid afternoon (suppressing diurnal Cu). However, rapid destabilization is expected to occur during the mid to late afternoon in the W/NW Piedmont as rich low-level moisture (925 mb Td 18-19C) advects east of the Appalachians beneath a modified elevated mixed layer (characterized by 700-500 mb lapse rates on the order of 6.5-7.0 C/km) resulting in moderate MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/Kg.) With regard to forcing, central NC will remain on the NE periphery of an upper level ridge [centered over the lower Midwest/Deep South) through tonight, at the southern fringe of the westerlies in NW flow aloft. Given a weak mslp/height gradient and the absence of an impending upper level disturbance /DPVA/ through early/mid afternoon, expect dry conditions to prevail with highs in the lower 90s. A long-lived MCS and attendant MCV progressing into northern KY this morning will track SE/ESE into southern WV or southwest VA by ~00Z this evening, with similar activity (additional MCSs) likely to follow later this evening through tonight. With the above in mind, expect a chance for convection from 00Z this evening through the remainder of the night, highest during the late evening hours (between 00-04Z or 00-06Z). Despite poor diurnal timing, a conditional potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm will exist this evening given moderate destabilization and deep layer shear sufficient for supercells, primarily in the NW piedmont between 7 pm and midnight. -Vincent && .SHORT TERM /Thursday and Thursday night/... As of 215 PM Wednesday... A 1006 mb surface low over the OH valley will weaken and track ESE toward diffluent flow aloft along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday as the parent shortwave outpaces the surface low and tracks rapidly E/ENE across New England toward the Canadian Maritimes. An associated cold front, oriented roughly west-east in vicinity of the Mason-Dixon line Thu morning, will track southward into WV/VA Thu aft/eve before progressing into central NC Thu night. Expect afternoon highs in the mid/upper 90s Thu as southerly flow strengthens in response to a tightening MSLP gradient in advance of the approaching sfc low, with southwest winds becoming sustained at ~15 mph with gusts as high as 20-30 mph. Airmass modification over the past few days has generally yielded an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment from one day to the next. This trend is expected to persist on Thu, when strong insolation, rich low-level moisture and relatively steep (6.0-6.5 c/km) mid-level lapse rates are expected to yield strong instability (MLCAPE ~2500 J/kg) by late afternoon. Aside from a tighter MSLP gradient and relatively better (albeit shallow) convergence in the lower levels, forcing is expected to be similar to today, i.e. the better forcing associated with small amplitude waves and/or remnant MCS activity in NW flow aloft is expected shortly after peak heating Thu evening, followed by increased low-level forcing late Thu night as the back door cold front progresses into central NC from the north. At this time, uncertainty in convective evolution is sufficient to preclude chances greater than 50% Thu eve/night. Given strong instability, the presence of a modified elevated mixed layer, 25-30 kt deep layer shear, and DCAPE values 1000-1250 J/kg, deep convection that develops will either organize along outflow (more likely if numerous) or become supercells (more likely if isold or sct), with an attendant threat for damaging winds and/or large hail (quarter to golf ball size). Uncertainty persists with regard to the evolution of convection Thu aft/eve, precluding a more detailed analysis of severe potential at this time. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/... As of 238 PM Wednesday.. Backdoor cold front sagging south will be nearly parallel to prevailing flow, which will be just a bit north of west on Friday. Not a lot of pressure differential north and south of the front, either, so this early season front will be slowing to a crawl until Friday night when upper ridging building in the midwest tips the flow more northerwesterly to provide some additional momentum. As such, will have to maintain chance PoPs throughout the day, with a decreasing trend across the north Friday night as the front edges south. Modest cool air advection in northeast flow will be most evident in the northeast, where highs should peak below 85 degrees. Elsewhere the highs will be mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s, but potentially a bit cooler than that if precip is more widespread. Can expect a fair spread on the lows Friday night as well, with areas up near the VA border in the mid 60s while the southern tier bottoms out in the lower 70s. A delightful weekend is on tap as the front continues its crawl south on Saturday. Lingering morning showers Saturday across the south will diminish to negligible by late day. Otherwise, mostly clear skies are expected through Sunday night, with seasonable highs from 85 to 90 each day after morning lows from 65 to 70. Our next cold front will be approaching the mountains Monday morning, with moisture and temperatures on the rise in southerly flow ahead of the front. Showers will be on the increase by Monday afternoon as highs approach 90, with at least chance PoPs for Tuesday as the front moves across central NC. Highs Tuesday will be mainly upper 80s, but could be just a bit cooler depending on the actual timing of the frontal passage. Not much confidence in the forecast for Wednesday, as the front may be stalled in the vicinity which would be the focuse for scattered mainly diurnally driven convection weighted towards the southern tier where the front would be more likely stall. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday through Monday/... As of 100 PM Wednesday... 24-hr TAF Period: Expect a potential for showers/storms late this evening into tonight at all terminals. The best overall potential for convection (and perhaps an isolated severe storm) will occur between 00-06Z at the INT/GSO/RDU terminals). Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals. Light SW winds this afternoon through tonight will strengthen to 12-17 kt sustained with gusts as high as 25 kt at eastern terminals (FAY/RWI) where the mslp gradient will be tighter and ~20 kt at INT/GSO/RDU. Looking Ahead: Showers/storms will be possible at all terminals late Thursday into Thursday night as a backdoor cold front approaches from the north. Sub-VFR ceilings and light rain will remain possible Fri/Fri night as the backdoor cold front progresses southward through the Carolinas. -Vincent && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...Vincent SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...Vincent
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 417 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 NCZ038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-230945- DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY- MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND- SAMPSON- 417 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE DOING STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES OUTDOORS AND THOSE IN POOR HEALTH. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN STORM THREATS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ007>011-021>028-230945- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE- 417 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER MAY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY... AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN STORM THREATS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE DOING STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES OUTDOORS AND THOSE IN POOR HEALTH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. GIH
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
324 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016
NCZ038-039-222015-
RANDOLPH NC-DAVIDSON NC-
324 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
RANDOLPH AND EAST CENTRAL DAVIDSON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...
AT 323 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LEXINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...LINWOOD...DENTON...GORDONTOWN...MARTHA...
WELCOME AND HIGH ROCK LAKE.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3589 8030 3585 7986 3559 7997 3569 8026
3572 8033 3572 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 282DEG 13KT 3579 8023
WSSThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 127 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:17 UTC.
13 thunderstorm wind, 6 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Two trees were blown down, one near the intersection of NC Highway 49 and Tot Hill Farm Road and another one near the intersection of Back Creek Church Road and Stutts Road.
One large tree and several large tree limbs blown down.
One tree was blown down.
One tree blown down on Mays Crossroads Road near Franklinton.
Multiple trees blown down in Louisburg.
One tree blown down on Hart Road.
One tree blown down near the 300 block of Bunn Elementary School Road.
One tree blown down on NC Highway 98.
Down tree fell onto an outbuilding. Extent of damage was unknown and therefore estimated.
Power-lines were blown down at Old Raleigh Road and Rock Ride Sims Road.
One tree was blown down onto an automobile. Property damage was estimated.
One tree was blown down across Mountain View Road in the Grove Hill Area.
One tree was blown down at the intersection of NC HWY 561 and Williams Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, June 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 644318, 644319, 644320, 644321, 644324, 644327, 644332, 644333, 644335, 644336, 644337, 644340, 644341, 644343, 644344, 644345, 644346, 644349, 644351.