A mesoscale convective system developed across Illinois and worked east then southeast across the region during the early morning hours of June 23rd.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
A mesoscale convective system developed across Illinois and worked east then southeast across the region during the early morning hours of June 23rd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 22, 8:17 PM EST, 3 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
917 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong warm front draped across the Ohio Valley will team up
with a strong weather disturbance to bring several waves of
showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight and Thursday.
Damaging wind gusts and flash flooding may affect portions of the
Ohio Valley by the time a cold front swings through the area later
Thursday afternoon and evening bringing the storms to an end. The
weekend will start dry and warm and end up with a threat of
showers and storms and quite humid by Sunday evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Evening update centered on using the 22z HRRR run to map out the
evolution of the storms developing tonight. It was the only model
that seems to capture the precipitation running along the warm front
extending nw from KILN towards southern Lake Michigan. Used this
through about 6z and blended in to the previous forecast at 9z.
Temperatures were raised in the hourly to account for the increasing
warm air intrusion sw of and behind the warm front. Overall min
temps were dropped a degree or two to account for rain-cooled air
and it may even go lower into the middle 60s with some of the more
intense thunderstorm activity expected later tonight.
Previous discussion follows -
A great deal of time was spent on tonight with potentially
significant/high-impact weather seeming more and more likely for the
WFO ILN forecast area. Readers of this discussion are also
encouraged to read latest outlooks and discussions from WPC/SPC for
attendant detailed severe weather and heavy rain threats on a a
broader scale.
Relied heavily on 3-4km resolution data for tonight's
forecast...particularly the more recent runs of ESRL Experimental
HRRR...the 22.12z HIRES-W-ARW window...and 22.00Z/22.12Z NSSL-WRF.
Think 22.12z NAM is okay but am not liking farther north solutions
given poor handling how far west/south the current baroclinic
zone is in observational data vs. what is being forecast.
Through about 02z...expecting weather to be largely non-
severe/non- significant. There is a little concern that as warm
front lifts toward us through the evening and low level jet comes
up a bit...that isolated/scattered elevated storms may pop on the
early side (8-10 PM) across sern IND/swrn OH/nrn KY. A low
probability likelihood...but if these storms were to pop there is
ample elevated instby and shear for a marginal wind/hail threat.
Most likely/most probable scenario /if there is one given still a
lot of detail differences among numerous CAMs/ is for explosive
supercellular storm development ~00Z in nrn IL...moving rapidly
east/southeast and congealing into a linear MCS /with embedded
supercell structures/. This is where recent runs of CAMs are key
because it would seem apex of sig severe wx /including high-end
damaging wind and embedded mesovortices/ would tend to favor
diving into/toward strongest feed on low level flow/instby. Have a
feeling /given where this boundary is at right now/ that sig
severe threat and higher-end severe weather will evolve rapidly
south/east from northern IN into western OH and perhaps even west
of that /which many runs of experimental NAM Rapid Refresh Conus
Nest has been showing/. If this were to happen...the actual bulk
of sig wind/sig severe could occur west of forecast area...but
threat/duration of strong storms in warm-advection/extreme
moisture transport would greatly enhance flash flood threat in ILN
CWA. However...the NAM RR Conus nest scenario is a lone wolf in
the family of CAMs showing this scenario...but makes a lot of
meteorological sense. The consensus model scenario /Hires-ARW and
experimental HRRR preferred/ is for large/severe MCS to roar
southeast along instby gradient through cntl/sw Ohio with all
modes of severe wx possible...most prominently damaging
winds...and possibility of embedded mesovortices given strong low
level shear. Significant swaths of wind damage...either via storm
outflow or along mesovortex tracks...are possible.
Discussion on hydro/flash flood threat is below.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Would like to say we are out of the woods after the MCS exits the
area...but low pressure/cold front will still be sinking south
through the CWA on Thursday. Despite veered/gusty boundary layer
flow...dew points will remain in the 70s promoting strong instby
/MLCAPE 2000 to 3500 J/kg/ with strong/deep unidirectional wnwly
flow. Storms are expected to redevelop in southern Ohio and sink
into northern KY in the afternoon...with again a severe weather
and flash flood threat. Finally taper rain chances Thursday
evening as front clears.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will be in control through first couple of days of
fcst period. Dry conditions with a warming trend. Models have now
trended a little faster with front for Sunday and Monday. GFS is
fastest and wettest with ECMWF a little slower and slightly drier.
Will generally use a blend and bring in chc pops for late Sunday
in the west and across the fcst area Sunday night. Will trim pops
back for Monday and especially Monday night as newer model runs
pushing front south and east by Monday night. Temps a bit above
guidance for Saturday and Sunday and nearer to guidance for rest
of fcst period.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Band of showers/storms currently streaming off southern Lake
Michigan has been mostly weakening as it encounters drier low/mid
level air over Ohio. If any stronger cell happens to hold
together, current trajectory would have them impacting KCMH/KLCK,
but left them out of TAFs due to lower likelihood. Other concern
for this evening is the possibility of some pop up showers/storms
out ahead of a warm front to our west. Probability of this
occurring is also low enough to leave out of the TAFs, but a few
hi-res models do suggest the possibility.
A complex of strong thunderstorms is developing across northern
Illinois and will be the main concern later tonight. Latest hi-res
models continue to differ with regard to exact path and speed
these storms will travel, but would expect them to dive southeast
along a warm front and instability gradient currently stretching
from south of Chicago to Indy to south of Cincinnati. If the
storms merge into a healthy line, gusts could easily reach if not
exceed 50 knots, but was more conservative with tempo gusts at
this time. Torrential rainfall could lead to tempo IFR or perhaps
LIFR vsbys. The main line of storms will likely push through the
TAF sites within the span of an hour or two, but have hung on to
TSRA and VCTS a little longer for possible lingering storms. Aside
from the storms, a developing low level jet over southern Ohio and
northern Kentucky will result in marginal LLWS between 06-12Z with
0-2km shear on the order of 30-40 knots. Does not appear strong
enough to include in TAFs, but it may be borderline at the
southern terminals.
There is lower confidence in ceiling height once the storms depart
late tonight into Thursday morning, but an MVFR deck will be
possible, particularly at KDAY. A cold front will drop south
across the area during the day on Thursday and will serve as the
focus for scattered shower/storm development mainly in the
afternoon. Have gone with VCTS beginning around 16-17Z through
early evening. Winds will shift to the WNW during the day with
gusts around 20 knots possible.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night into
Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Expanded flash flood watch south by a tier or two of counties to
account for latest runs of the HRRR indicating the potential for
heavy rain in these areas. Warm advection ahead of the main severe
MCS should initiate storm development before it crosses. Storm
mergers ahead of and along the larger-scale MCS will combine to
create longer rainfall duration. Anomalous PWAT approaching 2.0"
near the boundary...and extremely strong moisture flux anomalies
on the nose of the inbound low level jet will increase the risk
for very heavy rainfall. Flash flood guidance is not particularly
low across Ohio...but rainfall rates will overwhelm any dry soils.
Also...redevelopment of storms on Thursday afternoon may bring
another round of threat...so have the watch continuing into and
through the day on Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for OHZ026-034-
035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KYZ099-100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for INZ050-058-
059-066.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Binau
NEAR TERM...Binau/Franks
SHORT TERM...Binau
LONG TERM...Padgett
AVIATION...Kurz
HYDROLOGY...Franks/KCHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 908 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 INZ050-058-059-066-KYZ099-100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088-240115- WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER- AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK- MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH- PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON- CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO- 908 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11 PM AND 5 AM ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IN LOCALIZED AREAS. A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE...AS WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SOME LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. THE PRIMARY THREAT AGAIN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>098-240115- RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON- CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON- 908 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 11 PM AND 5 AM. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN SOILS ARE WET FROM RECENT RAINS IN SOME AREAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM GIVEN EXPECTED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. THE PRIMARY THREAT AGAIN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. FRANKS/KC
The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 118 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:52 UTC.
44 thunderstorm wind, 7 flash flood, 2 tornado, 1 hail, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
State Route 31 was closed between Richwood Miller Rd and Turner Rd due to a tree down.
Water was reported up to the door of a business and various county roads were covered by water.
Multiple trees and limbs were knocked down in the area.
One tree was knocked down across a road.
A few trees and large limbs were knocked down.
There were numerous reports in the city of Delaware of roads closed due to high water. The city had high water throughout.
A couple of large limbs were knocked down.
A couple of large branches were knocked down.
Damage occurred to farm storage units and slight damage was done to a house.
Large limbs were blown down from a healthy ash tree near Morse Road in Clintonville.
Trees were reported down.
A power pole and wires were downed at Mimmel Road and Wastler Road. Several other trees and limbs were knocked down in the Clayton Area.
One large branch was downed.
A large 20 inch diameter tree was blown down.
A large tree was downed due to thunderstorm winds at Milford Center.
One tree was downed at Harrisburg Pike and Paul St.
One large tree limb was reported knocked down.
A few trees and large limbs were knocked down.
Large trees were reported down on houses.
A large tree was snapped in Madison Township in the 6500 block of Germantown Road.
The top of a tree fell onto a porch. Several other large limbs were also down in the the area.
A large tree and numerous large branches were knocked down.
A swath of damage was observed in the Settlers Walk neighborhood|including Settlers Walk Blvd., Stolle Drive, and Remick Blvd. The|damage also extended to the southeast toward Five Points and|Lytle. Maximum winds associated with the microburst occurred within|this area, and are estimated to be up to 80 mph.
Multiple hardwood trees were knocked down and were pointing in|the same direction. A few softwood trees were also uprooted.
Significant and widespread straight line wind damage to large trees and out buildings was reported.
Most of the roof was torn off a barn, along with the collapse of a barn wall. Significant tree damage was reported on the same property, which was in the 5600 block of North Clarksville Road.
Numerous trees were reported knocked down.
Widespread significant wind damage to large trees and siding of homes was reported.
The tornado first touched down at a campground on State Route 73 near Waynesville. At this location, trees were snapped, platform tents damaged, mattresses thrown, and there was evidence of a tornadic circulation in the grass. The tornado path continued southeast across U.S. Route 42 south of Waynesville with snapped trees. Barn damage occurred at a residence off of North Clarksville Road, where large sections of metal roofing were uplifted and barn doors were blown in. Trees on the property were snapped and were facing in a convergent pattern. Additional tree damage continued down North Clarksville Road. More trees were snapped near Caesar Creek Lake south of Harveysburg and also on Harveysburg Road.|Southeast of Interstate 71 on Doster Road, two homes sustained damage. There was loss of roofing material and the winds made one side of the house bulge outwards. Debris splatter was present on several sides of a home. Trees were uprooted and snapped in this area. The brick wall of a barn collapsed, while sections of roof were uplifted from barns. |The path continued southeast, where tree damage occurred along Hadley Road and South Clarksville Road. In the Ogden area off of Ogden Road, several trees were snapped. A tree also fell on a home in this area. There was again evidence of a tornadic signature with leaf debris on all sides of a barn. Trees and power lines were down along the path on Linkhart Road. |Off of State Route 730, some mobile homes were damaged, while several trees were snapped and a tree was uprooted. In addition, there was a convenience store that sustained loss of roofing materials with only some of the wooden beams remaining on part of the structure. Insulation was plastered to all sides of the building. Finally, a house lost portions of its metal roof while a barn incurred damage to its siding.|On Mcguinn Road, multiple houses sustained damaged. One home had extensive siding damage, the partial loss of a wall and roof damage, while insulation was plastered against several sides of the building. A small shed was destroyed and debris was tossed into a nearby field. The foundation of one garage was shifted slightly. At another residence, the two of the three sides of the garage were gone with the garage door pushed in. There were some subtle indications that damage continued into the crops in the field. Finally, a large shed lost half of the roof and fence damage occurred to a nearby property. |South of Wilmington along U.S. Route 68, trees and power poles were damaged. The tree damage continued on East Dalton Road, Cuba Road, Ireland Road, and onto Berlin Road. Also on Berlin Road, a house lost a portion of the roof and a garage door was pushed inward. Damage occurred to another home on Leslie Drive, were there was partial loss of the roof and insulation was plastered against the house on all sides. On Brown Road, a tree was uprooted and part of the roof of a barn was uplifted. |On State Route 134 a shed was blown and tossed off of the foundation. Items were tossed far into a field. At another location, there was evidence of tornadic circulation in the grass. Multiple barns sustained damage, with damage to the roofs and walls. Silos were tossed into a field. The house had glass that was broken and was sticking into an interior wall of the house. The house also had damage to part of the roof. Several trees were also snapped at this location. |At the end of the path off of Crouse Road, a barn was destroyed and a silo was damaged. Tree damage was observed in a field.
High moving water forced the closure of High Street at East 15th Street.
Multiple trees and power poles were broken at U.S. 42 and Ohio Route 73.
Large tree limbs were down covering U.S. 22/Ohio Route 3, making it impassable.
A tree was reported snapped.
Two trees were knocked down onto northbound 62, south of Stahl Rd.
Three large tree branches were knocked down.
The first sign of tornadic damage was observed near the corner of|Palmer Road NW and Harmony Road. Siding was removed from multiple|sides of a two story home, particularly on the southeast facing|side. Large tree limbs were also knocked down near this residence.
Damage continued to the southeast along Harmony Road and onto|Burnett Perrill Road. Damage primarily affected hardwood trees,|and several large branches were snapped from the trees. The|orientation of the trees exhibited a convergent pattern to the|damage. Siding was also removed from a garage at a residence on|Burnett Perrill Road.
Near the intersection of Burnett Perrill Road and Jasper-Coil|Road, numerous evergreen trees were snapped or uprooted on the|Jasper-Coil Road side.
The tornado moved across a cornfield and then across Bush|Cemetary on Bush Road. Tree damage at Bush Cemetary was extensive|and consisted of both snapped and uprooted trees thrown in|multiple directions. A well-defined swirl was noted in the|cornfield to the southeast of Bush Cemetary.
The most significant damage was observed along U.S. Route 22. Two|homes along the 3700 block of US Route 22 suffered structural|damage. One of the homes suffered partial uplift of the roof and|a significant loss of the covering of the roof. The garage was|also heavily damaged and the front porch was lifted. Leaf and|other debris splatter was observed on all sides of the home.|Spruce trees were uprooted and large limbs from other trees were|broken. The residence located on the opposite side of U.S. Route|22 had shingles and siding removed. An un-attached one car garage|was also destroyed. Damage in this area was estimated to be EF1 in|nature, with maximum winds near 100 mph.
To the southeast of this area, sporadic damage to trees and power|poles was noted, however the damage was more consistent with|straight-line winds. The survey also concluded that damage in the|Jasper Mills area was also caused by straight-line winds.
ODOT garage station measured the gust.
Several large trees were downed.
Flash Flooding closed Cannon Drive at Herrick on The Ohio State University Campus.
Large limbs were knocked down and minor damage occurred to the siding of a home.
State Route 31 was closed at County Road 200 due to high water. Other roads in the county were also closed.
A barn and outbuilding were damaged. Trees were also reported damaged including to an apple orchard.
Two trees fell down, one fell on a house.
Multiple large limbs were reported knocked down.
Three to four inches of fast flowing water was reported on Cypress Drive.
One half inch diameter sized hail fell and a very large tree limb was knocked down a couple houses to the east.
A tree fell down onto two houses.
A tree fell onto a parked car.
Kellogg Ave. was closed at Lanter Lane by a tree in the roadway.
Major damage occurred to the Grandview Buildings and Supply near Piketon.
Several streets were flooded by over one foot of water.
A tobacco barn and several trees were knocked down at 9141 Day Hill Arnheim Road. The house also had siding damage.
One road was still closed due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Ohio, 2016Warnings in Ohio, June 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 633646, 633518, 633647, 633648, 633652, 633519, 633653, 633655, 633656, 633659, 633660, 633661, 633662, 633664, 633663, 633709, 633684, 633713, 633691, 633706, 633708, 633711, 633667, 633704, 633700, 633703, 633689, 633697, 633529, 633520, 633688, 633666, 633716, 633717, 633710, 633645, 633696, 633670, 633690, 633521, and more.