Low pressure tracked from the southern New England coast to the Maritimes on December 30th. A strong and cold northwest flow of air crossed the relatively warm waters of Lake Ontario and produced heavy lake effect snow for Oneida County from the evening hours of the 29th to the early morning hours of the 30th.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BGM wrote it up.
Low pressure tracked from the southern New England coast to the Maritimes on December 30th. A strong and cold northwest flow of air crossed the relatively warm waters of Lake Ontario and produced heavy lake effect snow for Oneida County from the evening hours of the 29th to the early morning hours of the 30th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 29, 3:00 PM EST, 4 hours earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
300 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A west to northwest flow of seasonably cold air, will prevail
over the region into Saturday. As this air flows over the
relatively warm waters of Lake Ontario, lake effect snow will
develop. This snow will be heaviest, and most persistent, across
upstate New York, near the Thruway corridor. Although heavier lake
snows should end by Saturday, the next disturbance will be
approaching the region by then, bringing the chance for light snow
showers and flurries.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
2 pm update... The back edge of the steadier snow has cleared most
of the forecast area as of this writing, and it should gradually
move across our far eastern zones by 3-4 pm. Thus, we should be
able to let the current advisory expire on schedule at 4 pm.
Through early evening, things should be fairly uneventful, with a
few snow showers and flurries mainly across CNY, as some narrow
streamers come off Lake Erie and generally fragment/weaken with
eastward extent.
Our main focus then turns to the upcoming lake-effect snow event
later tonight-early Saturday. Model agreement is generally good
that an intense cyclone will be tracking northward into the
Canadian Maritimes. An associated WNW flow of seasonably cold
(850 mb temperatures dropping to -12 to -15C by Friday evening)
air will prevail over the region, along with deep saturation through
at least Friday (incorporation of mid-level moisture from the
Atlantic), and decent crystal growth parameters. These large-
scale ingredients appear favorable for locally heavy lake-effect snow
in parts of CNY, featuring lengthy inland extent. At this early
juncture, the most intense snowfall rates should occur on Friday,
with gradual weakening Friday night, along with a northward shift
of the remaining lake snow bands by then. We've converted our LES
Watch to a Warning for Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida counties,
with surrounding advisories for Southern Cayuga, northern
Cortland, northern Chenango, and Otsego counties.
There are some model signals that a transitory lake snow band
emanating from Lake Huron could impact parts of NY's southern tier
and northern PA on Friday. Although we can't rule this possibility
out, confidence is low, so we've gone mostly with scattered snow
showers at this juncture, and localized accumulations up to 1" or
so. Outside of more persistent lake snows, it will be partly-
mostly cloudy and blustery, with passing flurries.
During Saturday, the low-level flow will turn SW, with warm air
advection commencing. This should result in a further northward
shift of any residual lake snow bands out of our forecast area.
However, more general light snow showers may break out, especially
over CNY, owing to the approach of our next short-wave and
clipper-type surface low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak low pressure will track east across Ontario into Quebec Saturday
into Saturday night. This will bring the chance for some snow
showers mainly over far northern areas Saturday morning with
scattered snow showers expanding south and east across the
remainder of the forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening in advance of the system's cold front. Most areas should
not see much accumulation during the day Saturday as temps will be
around to slightly above freezing. However some light accumulation
(amounts mainly under an inch) will be possible Saturday evening
as temperatures cool. Somewhat higher amounts, potentially on the
order of a few inches, will be possible over Northern Oneida
County since this is where the strongest forcing will be and also
due to upsloping winds from a strong SW flow.
For New Years Day, the system clears out with high pressure
briefly moving in. This will result in skies becoming partly to
mostly sunny with highs in the 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active weather pattern continues for the long range...
Sunday night through Tuesday, an upper level trof will deepen in
the west while an upper level ridge develops in the east. Low
pressure will track from the southern plains northeast into the
western Great Lakes and into Quebec. Light snow and freezing rain
may develop across northern Pennsylvania into New York's southern
Tier late Sunday night. On Monday, as temperatures warm a light
wintry mix may occur which would change to plain rain at most
locations by afternoon. Mild conditions will continue Monday night
and Tuesday with rain likely during the overnight period and more
scattered activity by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday night the
trailing cold front will cross the area with mixed rain/snow
showers expected into Wednesday. Wednesday night into Thursday
airmass will cool enough for just lingering snow showers.
Temperatures will be above normal for much of the period cooling to
seasonal levels by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Slowly improving conditions are expected this afternoon, as
steadier snow exits the region. Some residual IFR is possible
through 19-20z, especially at KRME, but mostly MVFR to occasional
VFR is anticipated thereafter.
Tonight-Friday, lake-effect snow will impact KSYR and KRME, with
IFR-fuel alternate conditions developing, and periodic
deterioration to near field minima possible. Elsewhere, although
passing snow showers could bring IFR restrictions, we expect
MVFR-VFR conditions much of the time.
Surface winds will become W-NW and gusty, from this evening onward
through Friday.
OUTLOOK...
Friday night...Restrictions likely in snow showers at KRME and
KSYR, with mostly VFR elsewhere.
Saturday...Occasional restrictions possible in snow showers,
mainly KSYR-KRME.
Saturday Night-Sunday...A continued possibility for restrictions
in snow showers, most probably, once again, at KSYR and KRME.
Monday-Tuesday...Restrictions are likely in either rain or a
wintry mix, depending on the exact time and location.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ040-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
NYZ009-037-046-057-062.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday
for NYZ017-044>046.
Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Saturday for NYZ009.
Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday
for NYZ018-036-037.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MLJHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 419 PM EST THU DEC 29 2016 NYZ015-016-022>025-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-302130- YATES-SENECA-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE- SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA- LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- 419 PM EST THU DEC 29 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NYZ018-036-037-302130- ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA- 419 PM EST THU DEC 29 2016 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS TONIGHT, A LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 4 INCHES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NYZ017-044>046-302130- SOUTHERN CAYUGA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO- 419 PM EST THU DEC 29 2016 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NYZ009-302130- NORTHERN ONEIDA- 419 PM EST THU DEC 29 2016 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
327 PM EST THU DEC 29 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0953 AM SNOW 4 NW TUNKHANNOCK 41.58N 76.00W
12/29/2016 M2.5 INCH WYOMING PA TRAINED SPOTTER
1210 PM SNOW GREENE 42.33N 75.77W
12/29/2016 M3.3 INCH CHENANGO NY TRAINED SPOTTER
0103 PM SNOW GIBSON 41.80N 75.65W
12/29/2016 M2.5 INCH SUSQUEHANNA PA STORM CHASER
0103 PM SNOW BINGHAMTON REG ARPT 42.20N 75.98W
12/29/2016 M2.5 INCH BROOME NY ASOS
0112 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SKANEATELES 42.95N 76.43W
12/29/2016 M128 MPH ONONDAGA NY MESONET
0153 PM SNOW MC GRAW 42.60N 76.10W
12/29/2016 M3.3 INCH CORTLAND NY TRAINED SPOTTER
ELEVATION 1391 FT... SNOW HAS ENDED
0201 PM SNOW 2 ESE HONESDALE 41.57N 75.21W
12/29/2016 M2.8 INCH WAYNE PA TRAINED SPOTTER
0221 PM SNOW MARCY 43.17N 75.29W
12/29/2016 M2.3 INCH ONEIDA NY TRAINED SPOTTER
0224 PM SNOW WHITESBORO 43.12N 75.30W
12/29/2016 M4.0 INCH ONEIDA NY TRAINED SPOTTER
0320 PM SNOW HOLLAND PATENT 43.24N 75.26W
12/29/2016 M3.8 INCH ONEIDA NY TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
EMGThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 lake-effect snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Lake effect snow amounts ranged between 10 and 14 inches with the highest snow amount reported just west-northwest of Holland Patent of close to 14 inches.
Lake effect snow amounts ranged between 7 and 10 inches with the highest snow amount reported of 10 inches 5 miles south to southeast of Rome.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, December 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 672351, 672352.