High Surf in Florida, December 29, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
458 AM EST Thu Dec 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...Boating Conditions Will Begin to Deteriorate late Today...
...Above Normal Temperatures for one more day, then turning
noticeably colder/drier Fri/Sat...

Today...Winds will pick up out of the west ahead of a cold front
pushing into north Florida. The increasing boundary layer flow
should allow the patchy dense fog early this morning to mix out
pretty easily. The offshore flow looks strong enough to prevent
the east coast sea breeze from forming. This typically leads to
the warmest temps along the east coast with some mid 80s possible.
Vero Beach may approach its record high of 85 set just last year.
Other records appear out of reach.

A band of higher precipitable water just ahead of the front will
approach our northern counties late in the day. But frontal
convergence is weak so have stayed close to GFS MOS PoPs which are
20 percent north of Orlando.

Tonight...The cold front is forecast to push rapidly through
central FL with winds turning Northwest and remaining breezy
overnight especially along the coast where there will be a slight
chance for showers. Strong cold advection will produce
temperatures falling into the mid 40s north of Orlando to the mid
50s along the Treasure coast. There will be a band of lower clouds
with the front which should clear with FROPA but area will be
under the right entrance region of upper jet which will produce a
cirrus shield over the area.

Friday-Friday night...A colder and much drier airmass will
continue to build down into the area as a breezy N/NW flow
persists behind the cold front. Highs will be around 20 degrees
colder than Thursday's values, in the low to mid 60s. Then into
Friday night lighter northerly winds and mostly clear skies will
help temperatures fall quickly after sunset. Lows will range from
the upper 30s to low 40s over much of the interior and Volusia
coast to mid/upper 40s along much of the Brevard and Treasure
Coast.

Saturday-Sunday...High pressure north of the area early Saturday
will shift offshore into the weekend, with ridge axis near to north
of central Florida. This will quickly veer low level winds onshore,
modifying the dry and cooler airmass in place. Highs will be closer
to normal values on Saturday, in the low 70s, and then increase to
the upper 70s/around 80 degrees on Sunday. Lows will also rebound
from the 50s Saturday night to the 60s into Sunday night.

While southeast flow will be slightly elevated, it will likely take
until Saturday night/Sunday for low level moisture to recover, and
for isolated showers to begin to redevelop over the coastal waters.
This shower activity may begin to then push onshore, mainly along
the Treasure Coast Sunday, and have added slight rain chances for
this area into late weekend.

Monday-Wednesday...Rain chances will increase into Monday as
moisture continues to rise in the S/SW flow and models indicate a
series of disturbances aloft crossing the Southeast United States.
Rain chances then linger, but remain on the lower side into Tuesday
and Wednesday as another front approaches the area into mid week.
Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s each day and lows continuing to range in the low to mid
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Despite moist low levels, fog is taking longer to develop as
southwest to west flow increases above the surface. But some fog
will advect in from the gulf coast and produce tempo IFR-LIFR
conditions LEE-MCO-SFB-DAB through 14Z. Then VFR all sites with
west winds increasing 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts around
20 knots MCO northward. Winds turn N/NW between 00Z-06Z behind
FROPA maintaining 10-15 knots overnight with higher gusts esp
along the coast. A period of bkn-ovc skies should accompany the
front as it passes through overnight but CIGs should remain VFR
(above 030 AGL).

&&

.MARINE...
Today...A frontal boundary moving through north Florida will
cause westerly winds to increase during the day, reaching 15 knots
this afternoon. Seas 2 feet very near the coast and 4 feet
offshore becoming choppy as the offshore flow increases.

Tonight...A strong cold front will cross the waters with winds
becoming N/NW behind the front and rapidly increasing to 20-25
knots with occasional gusts to gale force. This stronger
northerly wind flow will quickly build seas 9 to 11 feet offshore
and 6 to 8 feet nearshore. Have raised a Small Craft Advisory for
all the waters beginning this evening.

Friday...Hazardous marine conditions will continue through Friday,
as northerly winds up to 20-25 knots behind the front continue
across the waters, building seas up to 10-11 feet in the gulf
stream. Northerly winds will gradually decrease into Friday night as
they veer to the northeast, but seas will remain hazardous,
especially over the gulf stream waters.

Saturday-Monday...High pressure building off the Southeast U.S.
coast will veer winds to the southeast, around 10-15 knots
increasing to 15-20 knots offshore by late Sunday. Elevated seas up
to 6-7 feet may continue offshore into early Saturday, but then
should decrease to 5 feet or less into Saturday afternoon and
through the rest of the weekend.

Poor boating conditions expected into Monday as southeast winds up
to 15-20 knots build seas up to 6 feet offshore.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday-Sunday...Very dry airmass building down into central Florida
behind the cold front will generate very low RH values into Friday
afternoon. Min RH values in the mid 20s to low 30s are forecast over
much of the interior, and breezy N/NW winds will generate an
elevated fire weather concern. However ERC values may continue to be
too low for the issuance of any Red Flag Warnings for the area.

Wind flow quickly veers onshore into the weekend with low level
moisture recovering and RH values remaining above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  44  59  39 /  30  20   0   0
MCO  81  48  61  42 /  10  10   0   0
MLB  83  52  63  45 /  10  20   0   0
VRB  83  56  64  47 /  10  20   0   0
LEE  78  45  62  39 /  20  10   0   0
SFB  81  47  61  41 /  20  10   0   0
ORL  81  48  62  44 /  10  10   0   0
FPR  84  55  64  47 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Friday
     for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Saturday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Saturday
     for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.

&&

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Weitlich

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
542 AM EST THU DEC 29 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-292200-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
542 AM EST THU DEC 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE EARLY THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS ORANGE, SEMINOLE, LAKE, VOLUSIA,
NORTHERN OSCEOLA AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES THROUGH 900 AM. PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL CAUSE SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS AND
INCREASE YOUR FOLLOWING DISTANCE IF YOU ENCOUNTER FOG THIS MORNING.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A PERSISTENT EAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALWAYS SWIM
WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WESTERLY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AROUND 15 KNOTS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS
EVENING FOR NORTH WINDS INCREASING 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 6 TO 8 FEET NEARSHORE AND 9 TO 11 FEET OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND
PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER IN THE GULF STREAM. ON FRIDAY...LONG
DURATION OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15
MPH WILL PRODUCE A FIRE SENSITIVE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
SPREAD OF ANY NEW OR ONGOING FIRES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

KELLY