Showers and thunderstorms developed across the region Friday afternoon within a very warm, humid and unstable atmosphere. As these storms moved northeast, an isolated storm became severe.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BGM wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms developed across the region Friday afternoon within a very warm, humid and unstable atmosphere. As these storms moved northeast, an isolated storm became severe.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 12, 10:03 AM EST, 2 hours 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1103 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The very warm, humid, and unsettled weather will continue into at least Monday with showers and thunderstorms expected every day. With a very moist atmosphere, any of these storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1045 am update...Main change was to raise temps and dew points slightly which pushes area near to just over heat advisory criteria. Have issued heat advisory for Seneca, Southern Cayuga, Onondaga, Sullivan Counties in NY and Pike County in NE PA. No other major changes...still expect storms with heavy rain this afternoon and only minor tweaks to POP/WX grids. 330 am update... In a lull early this morning with only a few showers in the ne pa. Very warm and moist atmosphere continues over the cwa through the weekend. Tropical moisture is being brought northeast from Texas. Dewpoints and temperatures currently in the upper 60s and lower 70s. PWATs of mostly between 2 and 2.5 inches into Sunday. This is well above average and near record values. Any thunderstorms could have heavy rain of 1 to 3 inches per hour. This is most likely in the afternoon with surface heating causing low level instability. Winds aloft are stronger than Thursday so storms will be moving faster, but also increases the bulk shear to 25 kts. CAPE under 1k. No strong forcing so severe weather will be hard to get. Models showing convection starting on the lake Ontario south shore late morning and dropping south into the twin tiers in the afternoon. Tonight convection diminishes with the lose of heating. High temperatures around 90 with dewpoints in the lower 70s, so heat indices again in the mid and upper 90s. tonight lows again around 70. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 330 am update... This is the period to watch for flash flooding potential. Humid airmass continues. A stationary front in southeast Ontario will finally move se Saturday night and Sunday. This will provide surface lift while a few short waves cross Lake Ontario. showers and thunderstorms will initiate again near Lake Ontario midday Saturday then drop slowly southeast ahead of the front through Sunday. Some diurnal fluctuations with better intensity and coverage in the afternoon and evening Saturday. Some increase Sunday but by then only in ne pa and Sullivan County ny. Sunday night only chc pops. Saturday SPC has central NY in marginal. Again an increase in wind fields so shear increases to 30 or 35 kts. CAPE also a little better and around 1000. If forcing waits until midday could get strong thunderstorms going. With all the moisture though any heating and weak forcing will get it going. Further south wind fields weaker and timing is later past max heating. Again heavy rainfall likely with deep moisture. Will continue to be a flash flooding threat for urban areas and low lying locations. Will need to watch locations heavy rain already fell this week. Saturday night continued warm and humid with lows around 70. Sunday cooler with highs in the low and mid 80s. This due to the convection and clouds. With the front in the area showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing. Sunday night somewhat of a break with the showers and thunderstorms ending with lows in the mid and upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Monday the area will likely see a break in the convective activity as surface high pressure over eastern Canada briefly builds over the region. Tuesday through Wednesday, models show a plume of moisture which originated over the Gulf States lifting into the Ohio valley and possibly the northeast. This feature rides northeast around the strong southeast upper level ridge. Based on latest guidance raised pops Tuesday through Wednesday into the chance category. Thursday and Friday may be drier again as high pressure drops into the Great Lakes region. Temperatures through the period will run a little above normal with highs in the lower to middle 80s. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KELM, VFR conditions are expected by 12Z as light rain showers move through til 13Z. Later today a mid level short wave will initiate convection generally between 16Z-22Z. In this primed airmass it's difficult to try and limit convection to a four hour Tempo group. At KSYR/KRME used 16Z-20Z, KITH 17Z-21Z, KBGM/KELM 18Z-22Z. At KAVP, where activity looks less widespread later today included a Prob30 group between 21Z-24Z. Confidence with this timing is marginal. Overnight most sites will be VFR with mid level clouds but KELM will likely see more IFR restrictions after 06Z especially if convection hits the airport today. Light and variable winds early this morning becoming w/sw at 5-10 knots then light and variable tonight. OUTLOOK... Saturday - Sunday night...Restrictions likely in showers and thunderstorms, along with haze and fog during the night. Monday - Tuesday...Primarily VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ048. NY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ016>018-062. && SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...PCF/TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...RRM
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1058 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 NYZ009-015-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-PAZ038>040-043-044-047- 072-131500- NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-STEUBEN-SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON- SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE- BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE- SOUTHERN WAYNE- 1058 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBANIZED AREAS. IN ADDITION, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT TO HEAT SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HEAT INDEX IS LIKELY TO REACH THE 90S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL POSE A RISK TO HEAT SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR POOR DRAINAGE AND URBANIZED AREAS. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, OR INSTANCES OF STREET FLOODING. NYZ016>018-062-PAZ048-131500- SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-SULLIVAN-PIKE- 1058 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2016 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HEAT ADVISORY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBANIZED AREAS. IN ADDITION, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO AROUND 100 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL POSE A THREAT TO HEAT SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HEAT INDEX IS LIKELY TO REACH THE 90S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL POSE A RISK TO HEAT SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR POOR DRAINAGE AND URBANIZED AREAS. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, OR INSTANCES OF STREET FLOODING.
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 83 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:00 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm moved across the region and became severe. This thunderstorm resulted in trees and wires being knocked over on Oxford Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 655497.