Hail, Sierra
- When
- October 9, 2:55 PM MST
- Where
- Sierra County, 5.19 mi WSW of Williamsburg
- Measured
- 1 in hail
- Reported by
- Public
- Coordinates
- 33.123, -107.384
Quarter size hail in Palomas Canyon.
Flash Flooding and Hail in New Mexico, October 9, 2016
A weak upper level trough was moving across the Rockies with a 50 knot jet streak on the back side of it. Low level winds were out of the southeast providing plenty of wind shear and Gulf moisture to the region for strong to severe thunderstorms.
Where it happened
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
The toll
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 3
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What happened
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
A weak upper level trough was moving across the Rockies with a 50 knot jet streak on the back side of it. Low level winds were out of the southeast providing plenty of wind shear and Gulf moisture to the region for strong to severe thunderstorms. Moisture values were uncharacteristically high on El Paso sounding for October which led to the threat for heavy rain and flash flooding.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 9, 1:33 PM MST, 1 hour 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 9, 1:33 PM MST, 1 hour 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 233 PM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A disturbance aloft will move over the Borderland this evening, giving us a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Drier west flow aloft will develop Tuesday and persist through the remainder of the week. Another disturbance does pass through this flow over our area Thursday for just a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain well above normal for much of this week. && .DISCUSSION... Water Vapor imagery showing upper vort center over SW Colorado with trough extending back to west central New Mexico. Most of that energy will stay to our north, but some of the energy is moving over the western CWA over moderately unstable air. MUCAPES of 400-1000 J/kg and decent directional shear could allow a few thunderstorms to approach severe, mostly for hail. The favored area should be mostly west of the Rio Grande Valley for this evening. The upper trough will be east of the area by Tuesday morning, ushering in a stretch of mostly dry west flow over the top of an upper high over northern Mexico. Next Pacific trough does cut through on Thursday, giving the area a slight chance of thunderstorms. For now will limit this chance to the Sac Mountains, as a back door front nears that area. Other areas may eventually need POPs, but for now the models remain dry. Aforementioned back door front will have to be watched in following model runs. GFS shows pretty stout cold advection into the higher terrain of the eastern CWA, but low level westerlies win out and eventually push the front back east out of the CWA. Otherwise the week ahead should be quiet and pleasant with temperatures running about 5 to 8 degrees above normal. Long range GFS shows deep trough moving to the west coast and drawing up tropical moisture to the area beginning of next week, however ECMWF much shallower with trough and hence no scooping up of tropical moisture. && .AVIATION...Valid 10/00Z-11/00Z... Isolated to scattered rain showers thunderstorms through the period moving more east of the Rio Grande by end of the forecast period. General sky/wx SCT-BKN030-050 SCT-BKN080-120 BKN200-250 WITH AREAS BKN020-035 OVC060 in heavier tstms. Winds generally NE-SE 07 OCNL G 12 KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper level disturbance will move through the area over the next 24 hours bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. There is a risk of some strong to severe storms through early this evening. For the early part of the upcoming work week, temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s (around 10 deg F above normal) with dry conditions returning and min rh values dropping to around 20% in the lowlands later Monday and Tuesday. A weak trough will bring some thunderstorms to Otero and Hudspeth Counties Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 59 85 61 89 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 83 58 85 / 20 0 0 0 Las Cruces 54 83 56 87 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 55 83 55 87 / 20 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 65 39 67 / 30 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 54 82 55 85 / 20 0 0 0 Silver City 50 77 52 80 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 53 84 51 88 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 85 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 85 60 89 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 54 83 55 88 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 59 87 58 90 / 20 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 79 56 83 / 20 0 0 0 Fabens 57 86 57 89 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 57 84 59 88 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 58 83 60 86 / 20 0 0 0 Jornada Range 53 83 52 86 / 20 0 0 0 Hatch 55 83 57 89 / 20 0 0 0 Columbus 56 85 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 83 59 87 / 20 0 0 0 Mayhill 43 73 45 76 / 30 0 0 0 Mescalero 43 72 43 76 / 30 0 0 0 Timberon 42 70 44 73 / 30 0 0 0 Winston 44 76 46 79 / 20 0 0 0 Hillsboro 52 81 52 84 / 20 0 0 0 Spaceport 54 81 52 86 / 20 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 46 78 45 80 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 49 80 53 83 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 44 83 45 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 41 81 42 81 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 50 81 50 84 / 20 0 0 0 Animas 52 87 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 52 86 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 53 85 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 53 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NM...None. TX...None. && Hefner/Novlan
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 9, 5:08 AM MST, 9 hours 47 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 608 AM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-101215- UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE- SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY- SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL- UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN- EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES- NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY- CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN- WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET- SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET- EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA- WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY- NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN- SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS- RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES- RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY- 608 AM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS IN NEW MEXICO EAST OF THE DIVIDE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS IN REAL-TIME. 26
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Oct 9, 1:22 PM MST, 1 hour 33 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
222 PM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016
NMZ402-408-409-092100-
SIERRA COUNTY LAKES NM-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS NM-
SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE NM-
222 PM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SIERRA COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM MDT...
AT 221 PM MDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF HERMOSA...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF WINSTON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CUCHILLO...
SAN MIGUEL...
CHISE...
AND UPPER PALOMAS CANYON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&
LAT...LON 3312 10770 3328 10769 3338 10743 3327 10732
3303 10736
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 257DEG 11KT 3322 10762
HARDIMANSpecial weather statement, Oct 9, 2:20 PM MST, 35 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX 320 PM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016 NMZ405-406-092200- UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL NM-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL NM- 320 PM MDT SUN OCT 9 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL HIDALGO AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MDT... AT 319 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF ANIMAS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... AREAS JUST SOUTH OF ANIMAS... PLAYAS... WINDMILL... AND PLAYAS VALLEY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. && LAT...LON 3174 10887 3191 10888 3204 10853 3170 10851 TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 250DEG 17KT 3184 10879 HARDIMAN
The radar
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 118 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:54 UTC.
Event by event
2 flash flood, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash Flood, Sierra
- When
- October 9, 4:03 PM MST to 5:30 PM MST
- Where
- Sierra County, 1.55 mi SE of Las Palomas to 6.11 mi S of Truth Or Consequence
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Reported by
- Law Enforcement
- Coordinates
- 33.057, -107.278
Numerous reports of flash flooding were received around a 5 mile radius of Williamsburg. Flooding was reported on King Canyon Road and water was above bridge level on Highway 187 along with debris on the road. Palomas Creek was flooded about 6 miles northwest of the I-25 bridge.
Flash Flood, Sierra
- When
- October 9, 4:30 PM MST to 5:45 PM MST
- Where
- Sierra County, 0.47 mi WNW of Monticello to 1.45 mi SW of Monticello
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
- Coordinates
- 33.403, -107.457
Flash flooding was reported across Highway 142 in Monticello.
What these are
- Hail
- Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
- Flash Flood
- Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
The same day elsewhere
- Flooding in Maryland, October 9 to 11, 2016
- High Wind and Strong Wind in Massachusetts, October 9, 2016
- Flood and High Wind in Delaware, October 9, 2016
- Strong Wind and Heavy Rain in New Jersey, October 9, 2016
- Flood in Alaska, October 9 to 14, 2016
- Strong Wind in Maryland, October 9, 2016
- Strong Wind in Pennsylvania, October 9, 2016
- High Wind in Rhode Island, October 9, 2016
- Hail in New Mexico, October 9, 2016
More
Every storm in New Mexico in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, October 2016
Sources
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 662887, 662896, 662897.