The passage of an upper trough and the associated cold front resulted in high winds over the Guadalupe Mountains.
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The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
The passage of an upper trough and the associated cold front resulted in high winds over the Guadalupe Mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 12, 1:50 PM MST, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
250 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016
.DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows an upper trough just south of the Four Corners,
which is forecast to be in north central NM by 00Z Sunday. This
feature is slightly slower than was advertised 24 hours ago, as
evidenced by weak wind fields at 18Z over the western zones.
However, a look at obs in the KEPZ area show stronger westerlies are
still on tap this afternoon/evening. Models still depict a H7
pressure gradient of 60m/200nm over the western mtns at 00Z, and the
NAM12develops a nice mtn wave signature over the Guadalupes this
afternoon/evening,so we'll let the warning ride there. Because of
the later arrival of the trough, though, we've removed Lea, Gaines,
and Andrews Counties from the advisory, as decoupling will likely
occur there before stronger winds aloft arrive later. Also, as the
trough moves thru the Texas Panhandle and into OK overnight, both
the NAM and GFS show a H7 speed max of 50+kts moving down into the
Big Bend Area, so we've added Brewster County to the advisory, and
will keep it in effect thru 12Z Sunday from the Davis Mtns south, as
it looks like mtn areas will hit advisory criteria all night. These
downslope winds are still on tap to push afternoon temps well-abv
normal, and all this wind, heating, and drying will result in
critical fire weather conditions for Southeast New Mexico and much
of West Texas this afternoon and evening. See fire wx discussion
below for more details.
After the Four Corners trough passes, West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico will settle into a pattern of NW-zonal flow aloft into next
week. Thicknesses are still forecast to increase thru Monday
afternoon, when highs will make it feel more like early May than mid
March. Fire Wx will be the main concerns thru then. Monday night,
a trough will pass north of the region, dropping a Pac front into
the area Tuesday, bringing temps Tuesday afternoon down 5-10 deg
from Monday's. Wednesday, a secondary front will surge thru the
area, taking afternoon temps down to near normal, and then below
normal into the extended as a third front arrives Friday or so. By
this time, long-term models are pretty much out of sync, but both
bring a deep, upper level trough thru late in the week. The
GFS/DGEX are faster than the ECMWF, but this could yield slight
chances of showers eastern zones Thursday-Friday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A lee surface trough developing due to a passing upper storm system
to the north has served to increase winds out of the west this
afternoon, and while higher wind speeds have only begun to be
observed across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains, expect the strong westerlies to expand eastward across the
Trans Pecos and into the Permian Basin by late this afternoon.
Widespread 20 foot wind speeds of 25 to 35 MPH are expected, with
speeds up to 45 to 50 MPH across the Guadalupe Mountains. Thus, the
Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the Guadalupe, Davis, and
Apache Mountains, as well as the southeast New Mexico Plains, Van
Horn and Highway 54 corridor, the Upper Trans Pecos, and the Marfa
Plateau through this evening.
Winds will diminish somewhat overnight, however, given only poor to
fair nocturnal recovery for most locations along and west of the
Pecos River, critical fire weather conditions are expected to
develop once again on Sunday afternoon, particularly across the
Guadalupe Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, and the Davis
and Apache Mountains where 20 foot wind speeds remain elevated
between 20 and 30 MPH. The Fire Weather Watch for Sunday afternoon
and evening has been expanded to include the Davis and Apache
Mountains, though may need to be expanded further to include the
Marfa Plateau and/or southeast New Mexico Plains where 20 foot winds
are close to criteria. Continued dry and abnormally warm conditions
will continue on Monday, as min RH values are progged to drop to the
single digits areawide, with temperatures expected to be 10 to 15
degrees above normal. Widespread critical fire weather conditions
and high fire danger are possible on Monday, with a Fire Weather
Watch likely needed for at least portions of the area in later
forecast issuances.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 49 81 46 88 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 45 80 45 85 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 49 87 48 90 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 50 79 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 39 67 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 48 74 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 34 73 30 80 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 48 81 46 86 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 49 81 47 87 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 49 82 44 88 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
Mountains-Southeast Plains.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for Guadalupe Mountains.
High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for Eddy County
Plains.
TX...High Wind Warning until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for
Guadalupe Mountains.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
and Highway 54 Corridor.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Van
Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.
High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
for Guadalupe Mountains.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for Big Bend Area-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.
Wind Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight for Reeves
County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
Corridor.
&&
84/44HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 250 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-132100- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS- LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU- BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 250 PM CST SAT MAR 12 2016 /150 PM MST SAT MAR 12 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT HIGH WINDS LIKELY IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SURROUNDING PLAINS AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...DAVIS AND APACHE MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU...UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND BIG BEND AREA. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS BEING EXCEEDED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...DAVIS AND APACHE MOUNTAINS...AND THE VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR AREA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, March 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 616718.