High Wind in California, March 12, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
142 PM PST FRI MAR 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG WITH
INCREASED WINDS. A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE HANFORD
FA ATTM. RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH PER HOUR BASED
ON AREA OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR ESTIMATES. BACK EDGE OF HEAVY
PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY 1300 PST WITH
SOME CLEARING. CONCERN REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TRACK OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT IS TRENDING MORE SE THAN EAST. WE WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING ABOVE 6000 FEET. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS PAST MIDNIGHT AS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP IT GOING.

WE WILL GET A BREAK AFTER THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. BEFORE THE LITTLE OR NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS KERN COUNTY EXT SYSTEM IMPACTS PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEWER GUIDANCE IS DRIER AND FARTHER TO THE
NORTH WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. WE ARE NOT PUTTING UP ANY
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS ATTM AND WILL SEE WHAT THE NEXT RUN OR TWO
SHOW. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR KERN COUNTY
AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAIN ACROSS NRN CA.

THE QPF IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AS UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
WILL SET UP WITH STRONG ONSHORE MOISTURE FLOW...HOWEVER THE VALLEY
WILL SEE LIGHTER AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS KERN COUNTY. SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

THE PATTERN QUIETS BACK DOWN ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS DRY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AS AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE AREAS WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AREA OF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THRU 06Z SAT WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THRU 03Z SAT. LOCAL MVFR IN THE
SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS
AFTER 06Z SAT.

IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...WIDESPREAD
IFR IN PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THRU 12Z SAT AND
AREAS OF IFR IN UPSLOPE CLOUDS AFTER 12Z SAT.

GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THRU 03Z
SAT AND ACROSS KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THRU 06Z SAT.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR
THE CAZ096-097.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ095-098-099.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ089>091.

&&

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD