A powerful jet stream aloft combined with a surface low over eastern New Mexico to produce strong downslope winds along east slopes of the central mountain chain. Winds started to increase during the overnight hours and became strong during the period between midnight and noon on the 11th.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A powerful jet stream aloft combined with a surface low over eastern New Mexico to produce strong downslope winds along east slopes of the central mountain chain. Winds started to increase during the overnight hours and became strong during the period between midnight and noon on the 11th. The strongest recorded wind gust was 70 mph near Ute Park. Numerous trees were also reported blown over around Alto near the Little Bear burn scar. These strong winds stretched into eastern Lincoln County as well where wind gusts topped out around 60 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 10, 10:53 PM MST, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1053 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions currently in place across New Mexico with stout winds aloft buffeting ridge tops and high peaks with turbulent mountain wave activity, especially near and east of the central mountain chain of New Mexico. Stronger winds will be a factor into adjacent lower elevation areas during the daytime Sunday, but will not be as severe as in highest mountain elevations with winds aloft gradually decreasing some into the afternoon. The other concern will be in the lower Pecos River valley where some low level moisture could lead to isolated patches of low stratus clouds, perhaps carrying conditions into the MVFR category. Confidence is low on development. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...317 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016... .SYNOPSIS... The jet stream will take a southerly dip over New Mexico for the next couple of days and bring strong to potentially damaging winds, mainly over the higher terrain. More specifically, the Central Mountain Chain and adjacent highlands will be vulnerable to very strong winds tonight through Sunday then again Sunday night into Monday over the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Temperatures will generally be above normal through Thursday, except for portions of the Eastern Plains behind a backdoor cold front on Wednesday. A storm system is shaping up for late week and into the weekend, with much needed precipitation moving in on Friday. This system will bring very windy conditions Friday, followed by much colder air bringing temperatures below mid December normals by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... The jet stream is currently oriented over the Great Basin and Central Rockies and is forecast to dip south a bit overnight across northern New Mexico. Very strong to potentially damaging winds will impact the peaks this evening then work down the east slopes of the Central Mountain Chain overnight, eventually impacting some lower elevation locations by Sunday morning. It is unclear exactly where the forecast mountain wind waves will crash, but locales in the Northeast Highlands, East Central Highlands and Estancia Valley will be susceptible between 09-15z Sunday. The High Wind Watch has been upgraded and a few zones have been added as Wind Advisories. Strong winds will continue into Sunday afternoon, but gradually trend down. Light accumulating snow is still possible across the northwest late tonight into Sunday, with the higher west-facing slopes possibly picking up 1-3 inches. Very strong winds aloft will persist over the area into Monday morning and the latest NAM an GFS are showing more mountain wind wave potential early Monday morning along and to the lee of the Sangres. A weak backdoor cold front will poke into the Northeast Plains Monday night into Tuesday, but the stronger backdoor front will arrive Wednesday and bring below normal temperatures to portions of the Eastern Plains. Elsewhere, above normal temperatures will persist. Thursday looks like the warmest day of the forecast cycle with increasing southwest flow ahead of a potent trough. KABQ may event hit 60 degrees Thursday, with the 12z GFS MOS showing 60 and the ECMWF MOS showing 62. The flow will finally buckle toward the end of the week and a potent trough/low will drop south along the west coast. Both the 12z ECMWF and GFS show this pattern transition, but differ on the timing and open/closed nature of the system initially. Moisture advection will kick-in Thursday night across our area with the trough on approach. Friday looks very windy with a cold front pushing through and precipitation chances ramping-up. The weekend is looking much colder, with below to well below normal temperatures and precipitation chances diminishing. However, there is plenty of forecast uncertainty with differences among the 12z operational medium range models and their respective ensemble members. 11 && .FIRE WEATHER... An unusually strong jet stream pattern and Chinook wind scenario is setting up for portions of the forecast area during the next several days. There is some signs from the modeling that the drier portion of this pattern would shift south later next week or weekend and allow for some better precipitation potential...mainly snow...across more of the area. That remains to be seen. In the mean time...periods of better ventilation due to increased transport wind and gusty wind overall across the higher mountain ridges. Near term impacts and challenges will be tied to the jet stream and jet maxes or peak wind areas translating through the main stream. The first wind maximum is expected to move over the area tonight into Sunday morning. Another one is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and a third one Friday into Saturday. These wind maximums across the mid levels would be 90th to 97th percentile speeds. As always this time of year...stability is a concern in terms of how the higher wind speeds aloft mix to the surface and impact various elevations and aspects. That makes it tricky in terms of forecasting a 2.5 km grid box. Expect some significant variation within a fire weather zone as well as forecast grid box. Either way...tried to value add accordingly...especially zones which are likely to be impacted by surfacing mountain waves and Chinook/downslope wind impacts. Humidity forecasting will also be a bit tricky in areas during the next several days. The predominant westerly fetch from the Pacific will keep dewpoints on the higher side...especially lower elevations across western/central areas. A more significant cold air advection pattern would alter the airmass areawide by next weekend although expect that to adjust some as we get nearer to that period. The main trick will be capturing downslope induced drying/warming to the lee of the more significant north to south mountain ranges such as the Sangres/Manzano/Sandias. This will largely be determined by mid level dynamic dry slots that will be associated with dry side of the jet stream. The most intense signature shows up across the NE third Sunday night into Monday so tried to undercut model dewpoint guidance there. Models show a more pronounced mid level dry intrusion Wed/Thu. Near term critical RH values are most likely to be relegated to just the NE third Monday...otherwise...values should largely remain above 20 percent areawide. Ventilation will vary widely both in space and time across the forecast area. Poor mixing today has led to poor ventilation most areas despite the increasing transport wind. Mixing heights and transport winds increase on Sunday making for an areawide improvement. Similar ratings for Monday despite some lowering in the mixing heights although some poor to fair pockets show up. Suspect the paltry ratings currently in the forecast for most areas during the middle of the week will improve some. The NAM model will most likely increase mixing heights compared to the GFS model. GFS is very bullish with its mixing heights and transport winds late in the week. 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 4 PM MST Sunday for the following zones... NMZ512>515-521>523-526-527. Wind Advisory until 4 PM MST Sunday for the following zones... NMZ524-528-529-539-540. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 434 AM MST SAT DEC 10 2016 NMZ501>540-111145- NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS- NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS- WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS- SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS- WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET- EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY- LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA- MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA- LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY- CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA- FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY- HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY- QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY- CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY- 434 AM MST SAT DEC 10 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WIND ADVISORY OR A HIGH WIND WARNING LATER TODAY. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ON FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDS AND WINTERWEATHER TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 54/FONTENOT
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Spotter estimated peak winds near 70 mph around 100 am at Pine Ridge store near Ute Park. Winds were strong much of the night.
New Mexico DOT reported several trees down near Alto in vicinity of Little Bear burn scar.
Peak wind of 61 mph at Transwestern Pump station.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, December 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 662385, 662386, 662387.