New Jersey, 2016Cold in New Jersey, January 4 to 5, 2016
January 4 to 5, 2016 · NWS PHI · 1 event in 1 county or zone
Arctic High Pressure settling across the eastern portion of the country produced the coldest temperatures of the winter season so far from late Monday afternoon January 4th into Wednesday morning, January 6th. These cold temperatures, combined with north to northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph in the higher elevations of the southern Poconos and northwest New Jersey, produced wind chill values…
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Arctic High Pressure settling across the eastern portion of the country produced the coldest temperatures of the winter season so far from late Monday afternoon January 4th into Wednesday morning, January 6th. These cold temperatures, combined with north to northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph in the higher elevations of the southern Poconos and northwest New Jersey, produced wind chill values as low as 25 degrees below zero, and prompted a Wind Chill Advisory for Carbon and Monroe Counties in Pennsylvania, and Sussex County in New Jersey for Monday evening into Tuesday morning.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 4, 9:55 PM EST, 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 4, 9:55 PM EST, 5 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST
NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST NEAR THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ISSUANCE EARLIER THIS
EVENING FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST
NJ, WE ALSO INCREASED WINDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS LATEST TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WINDS SHOULD
STAY ELEVATED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WE ALSO ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT USING THE LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS AND BETTER REFLECT THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WERE ALSO LOWERED BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS,
INCLUDING ACROSS THE POCONOS.
EVENING UPDATE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MONROE AND
CARBON COUNTIES IN PA, AND SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ. THE HEADLINE STARTS
NOW AND CONTINUES THRU 9 AM. OBSERVED WIND CHILLS AT A FEW
STATIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 1500 FT) WERE ALREADY
BETWEEN -15F AND -10F IN ALL THREE COUNTIES, INCLUDED THE KMPO
ASOS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TO
AROUND 10 MPH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPS WILL
ALSO FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME. EVEN IF
WIND CHILLS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA (-15F) ARE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER RIDGES, IMPACTS COULD BE GREATER IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS
(E.G., DRESS IN WARM LAYERS AND LIMIT TIME OF EXPOSURE) ARE NOT
TAKEN SINCE PEOPLE LIVING IN THE AREA ARE NOT YET ACCUSTOMED TO
THE COLD, LET ALONE THIS BITTER COLD. IT WAS JUST IN THE 50S AND
60S IN THESE SAME LOCATIONS FOR MUCH OF DECEMBER. WE WERE
PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT CHILDREN WALKING TO SCHOOL OR WAITING
AT THE BUS STOP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TUESDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS (SOUTH/METRO
PHL) AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE AND GUSTY
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN DIMINISH THROUGH DAWN. THE
WIND CHILL READINGS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN JUST ABOVE ISSUANCE
CRITERIA. WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS IN
THE HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SUNNY SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND
32 DEGREES...A FEW DEGREES HIGHER SOUTH AND COOLER OVER THE SRN
POCONOS AND NORTH NJ. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BY IN LARGE. A FEW GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MEAN
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING THICKNESSES AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY
THURSDAY, THE REGION COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DOUBLE
BARRELED LOW AND SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAIN
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND A LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD
WITH THE TRACKS OF BOTH THE SURFACE LOWS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE ONE LOW WILL BE LIFTING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE ANOTHER ONE
WILL BE DEVELOPING AND LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST (ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS THIS TRACKING OUT TO SEA). ANOTHER SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY
IS WHICH SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEEPER AND MORE INTENSE. HAVE GONE WITH
A CONSENSUS BLEND OF BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY. SO FAR, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN AS A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD LIFT
THROUGH THE REGION WITH OR AHEAD OF THE PRECIP MOVING IN. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NJ, WHERE TEMPERATURES
MAY BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME WINTRY MIX PRIMARILY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...FOR THOSE THAT WERE HOPING FOR A RETURN OF THE REALLY WARM
WEATHER THAT WE HAD LAST MONTH, EARLY NEXT WEEK DOES NOT LOOK
PROMISING AS A DEEP AND INTENSE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA MAY
RESULT IN A STRONG COLD FRONT EITHER MONDAY OR LATER. HOWEVER, IT'S
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS, IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PATTERN ON
SUBSEQUENT RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CLEAR SKIES AND GUSTY N/NW WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TUE MORNING...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY N OR NW.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. MVFR AND LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GALE ACROSS SRN DEL BAY AND THE SRN
COASTAL WATERS. RECENT OBS INDICATE LOW-END GALE GUSTS RECENTLY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DECREASING. THE WARMER (THAN NORMAL) WATERS AND
COLD/DRY AIR ARE PROMOTING MIXING BETTER THAN USUAL.
MODELS/GUIDANCE CAN UNDER-PERFORM IN THESE OCCASIONS.
A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN RAISED FOR OUR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z TUES. BASED ON LATE EVENING OBS AT BUOY 44065.
EFFICIENT MIXING AND SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE, AN SCA CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN DE BAY.
GALES WILL PROBABLY END AROUND DAWN TUE AND WILL PROBABLY BE
REPLACED BY SCA FLAG THEN. SCA CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE...PROBABLY INTO
THE AFTERNOON TUE. SCA ON THE NRN DEL BAY MAY END EARLIER.
FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY BEGIN TO BUILD NEAR SCA
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A LOW APPROACHES. IF SCA
CRITERIA IS MET BY FRIDAY NIGHT, CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE/O'HARA
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/O'HARA
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLINE/O'HARAHazardous weather outlook, Jan 4, 6:56 PM EST, 3 hours 4 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
656 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016
NJZ001-PAZ054-055-060000-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
656 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY.
WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE AROUND
15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
NJZ007>009-PAZ060>062-101-103-105-060000-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
656 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ010-012>027-PAZ070-071-102-104-
106-060000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
656 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACHING ZERO ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
ANZ431-453>455-060000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
656 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.
GALE WARNING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.
GALE WARNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
ANZ430-450>452-060000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
656 PM EST MON JAN 4 2016
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.Cold/Wind Chill, Sussex
- When
- January 4, 10:00 PM EST to January 5, 9:00 AM EST
- Where
- Sussex forecast zone
- Reported by
- Mesonet
- Coordinates
- 41.140, -74.690 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Northwest winds that persisted into the morning of the 5th, combined with an arctic air mass - the coldest of the season so far - produced wind chill factors between minus 10 and minus 30 degrees below zero. The coldest wind chill factors were located in the higher elevations where the wind was strongest and temperatures the lowest. The lowest hourly wind chill factor at High Point was minus 27 degrees, which occurred at 0310EST, and minus 15 degrees near Flatbrookville, which occurred at 0314EST. Actual morning low temperatures were in the above zero single numbers and included 4 degrees in Sussex, 5 degrees at Sussex Airport, and 6 degrees in Pellettown. The unseasonably cold arctic air mass and low wind chill factors were caused by the strong northwest wind flow over 30 MPH produced by a deepening mid-level trough over the eastern part of the country, and an arctic high pressure system moving east into the region. Cold temperatures were repeated the following night, but with less wind, wind chill factors were closer to the actual air temperatures.
- Cold/Wind Chill
- Cold or wind chill below warning criteria that caused deaths, injuries or damage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Cold in Wisconsin, January 4, 20161 death · 1 event
- Flash Flooding and Heavy Rain in Arizona, January 4 to 8, 20161 injured · $4,000 · 6 events
- Flood and Heavy Snow in California, January 4 to 6, 2016$1,000 · 5 events
- Lake-Effect Snow in Michigan, January 4, 20164 events
- Cold in Pennsylvania, January 4 to 5, 20162 events
- Winter Weather in West Virginia, January 4, 2016$1,000 · 1 event
- Flood in Indiana, January 4 to 6, 20161 event
- Heavy Snow in New Mexico, January 4 to 5, 20161 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 606934.