Minor flooding occurred along the Patoka River as a result of increased releases from the dam on Patoka Lake. The lake was swollen from the rainy pattern in late December.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Minor flooding occurred along the Patoka River as a result of increased releases from the dam on Patoka Lake. The lake was swollen from the rainy pattern in late December.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 4, 3:18 AM CST, 4 hours 42 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Paducah KY 318 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016 925 mb temps of -5C to -8C hold over the cloud plagued FA today. Moisture is trapped below the inversion, which forecast model soundings suggest should holds for bulk of day. Should see some drying creeping/working away at inversion during pm hours, as dew point depressions increase 1 to 2 degrees toward break out depression temp. As a result, we'll be more pessimistic with sky cover in the grids, but clear it west to east during the late pm/early evening hours. The surface high slides east by Tuesday, and a teleconnected ridging response at H5 arcs across the mid Mississippi river valley. It'll still be a cold day with neutral advection winds around the surface high staying east to southeast...but a tad warmer than Monday with a little more sunshine. The upper flow backs to southwesterly for Wednesday as low layer southerlys circulate around the surface high now located over the mid Atlantic coast. 20 kt 850 mb winds help warm 925 mb temps above 0C. This should translate to the beginning of moderating temps back into the 40s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016 Models show low pressure over the central Plains at 12z Thursday, moving into the Great Lakes region Friday night. GFS and ECMWF are a bit slower spreading rain into western portions of the PAH forecast area Wednesday night, and just went with some slight to low chance pops in a portion of southeast Missouri by 12z Thursday. Rain will become widespread across our entire region through the day Thursday and continue into Thursday night. As the low moves northeast, rain chances will decrease from southwest to northeast Friday into Friday night. ECMWF generates more light precipitation with the passage of the cold front late Friday night into Saturday, and we continued some low chances for light rain into Saturday. By Saturday night into Sunday, ECMWF brings another area of low pressure from the central Gulf Coast into eastern Kentucky, while the GFS takes the low much farther east. The ECMWF solution results in more precipitation for our region, and circulation around the low would result in a surge of colder air that could lead to rain mixing with snow Saturday night. The farther east solution of the GFS would result in dry conditions for our area. Consensus leads to leaning toward the ECMWF and just including low chance pops for our entire area, with a possibility of a rain/snow mix for our northern and western counties. Temperatures will be above seasonal for the end of the work week as southerly flow brings warm air into the region. Readings by Friday will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. The passage of the cold front Friday night will bring temperatures down several degrees for Saturday, then down to near seasonal readings for Sunday. && .AVIATION... Issued at 300 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016 1000-850 mb rh panels show moisture translates slowly eastward today, taking the bulk of the day to depart the terminals. Forecast model soundings reveal the moisture trapped below the inversion, which vertically erodes from about 3K FT to about 4K FT over the course of the day as the dew point depression at its inverse warms from about 3F to 5F, or relative break point. As a result, we'll carry MVFR to low VFR cigs thru the bulk of the pm, then disperse during the 21z-03z time frame. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 323 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-051100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 323 AM CST MON JAN 4 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR FLOODING...REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE AND DETAILED STAGE... FORECAST...AND IMPACT INFORMATION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY CONTINUE TO REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE FLOODING INFORMATION AND DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding occurred along the Patoka River. Some low-lying woods and fields were flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 611033.