Winter Weather in Nevada, January 29, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
218 AM PST FRI JAN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...BE ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
THIS MORNING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW TODAY. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE VALLEYS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTER WHICH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY
SPELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
SPLIT OFF A BIT FROM THE NAM AND SREF SOLUTIONS. LATE LAST EVENING
THERE WAS A FREEZING RAIN EPISODE IN THE ELKO AREA. THE NEXT WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEVADA.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE LKN FORECAST AREA
ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART WHEREAS ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 6000 FEET ARE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING. THUS THERE REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY OF COLD AIR BEING TRAPPED IN THE VALLEY LOCALES
INITIALLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN SOME FREEZING RAIN. A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES THIS MORNING AND A WINTER
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE RUBY MOUNTAINS.

TODAY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF RENO AND WEST OF LOVELOCK AT THIS HOUR WITH THE
BEST SURGE OF INCOMING PACIFIC MOISTURE STILL BACK OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EXPANDING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING INTO THE MID
30S TO MID 40S AND VALLEY RAIN WILL RESULT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
RISING TO AROUND 8000 FEET AS SHOWERS SPREAD TO ALL OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA. VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEVADA COULD RECEIVE OVER
ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL AND RAIN ON SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME CREEK
RISES.

LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE
GREATEST IMPACT IS EXPECTED. AN INTENSE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL
BEGIN TO STREAM ACROSS THE STATE. THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL PARALLEL
A 120-130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET CORE THAT WILL BE CRUISING ALOFT OF
CENTRAL NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN
ANY GIVEN AREA IN THE COLDER REGIME...THIS COULD MEAN SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SATURDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS THE POINT WHERE THE
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE EVOLVING
TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONGER
TROUGH DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHEREAS THE
NAM AND SREF MODELS ARE A BIT MORE SHALLOW. ALTHOUGH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS...BOTH OF THESE
SCENARIOS SEEM TO INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE FOR CENTRAL
NEVADA PERHAPS FAVORING WHITE PINE COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SILVER STATE...AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY TIME FRAME. NORTHERN NEVADA
WILL BE UNDER A 500 MB DEFORMATION ZONE AND AS A RESULT...HAVE
KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO
WINDY DURING THE MONDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENT NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING STRONG WINDS IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NYE AND
WHITE PINE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY...AS
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP FUNNEL STRONG WINDS IN THESE AREAS.
INDEED...GEFS ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING -3 TO -4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
IN THESE AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE IN THE 700-500MB LAYER WHICH COULD HELP PREVENT
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH. STILL...HAVE WENT FOR
SINGLE DIGITS DUE TO THE NEW SNOW COVER EXPECTED. NORTHERN NEVADA
WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF A STRONG JET...SO HAVE KEPT MAINLY
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR TUESDAY
DON'T LOOK VERY INVITING WITH READINGS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S FOR
THE MOST PART. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CURRENT GFS SOLUTION IS SHOWING A WEAK
WAVE IN THE FLOW THAT MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD COVER. KEPT MAINLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY WARM A
LITTLE. LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. WINDS WILL
AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT...AND HAVE KEPT
ONLY ISOLATED POPS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY AS A MOIST
AIRMASS MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT SHRA DURING THE DAY...WITH CHANGEOVER TO SN DURING THE LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...SW10-15G25-
30KT...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY-NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-
RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST
SATURDAY FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE.

&&

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