Oregon, 2016

Avalanche in Oregon, January 29, 2016

January 29, 2016 · NWS MFR · 1 event in 1 county or zone

An incoming front brought high winds to some locations in south central Oregon.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.

An incoming front brought high winds to some locations in south central Oregon.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 29, 9:15 AM PST, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 29, 9:15 AM PST, 1 hour 13 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 AM PST FRI JAN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH
VERY MOIST ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW IS MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL JET, AIMED AT THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS ALSO
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH GOOD ONSHORE
MOISTURE, EXPECT ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
AND CASCADES THROUGH TODAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INLAND
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MODOC COUNTY THIS EVENING. THE STRONG MOISTURE PLUME WILL ALSO
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH DAY AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH DECREASING SNOW
LEVELS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG AND GUSTY IN SOME AREAS, INCLUDING THE SHASTA VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND THE SUMMER LAKE AREAS THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

AREAL FLOOD CONCERNS REMAIN, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY BUT ARE EXPECTED BE MORE LOCALIZED AND
MINOR FOR JOSEPHINE AND JACKSON COUNTIES.

LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER AND
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACNW COAST, WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. HIGHER AMOUNTS
ABOVE 5500 FEET WITH 24 HOUR TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL COME DOWN TO 3000 TO
5000 FEET OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING THEN ARE FORECAST TO
COME DOWN TO 2000 FEET TONIGHT. SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN THE CRATER LAKE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR SNOWFALL FORECASTS FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5
INCHES IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN AS
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHERLY WILL LIKELY SEE DECREASED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER AS UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHOWERS, MAINLY FROM
THE CASCADES WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR/IFR AND NEAR TOTAL
TERRAIN OBSCURATION IN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AT
ROSEBURG AND MEDFORD AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE CLOSE CALL AT NORTH BEND UNTIL 15Z WITH
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
WITH LOCAL VFR IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PST FRI 29 JAN 2016...STEEP TO VERY STEEP
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. THERE COULD BE A
FEW PEAK GUST NEAR GALE FORCE EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INLAND BY MID MORNING AND WE'LL SEE A RAPID WIND SHIFT TO
WESTERLY...THEN WINDS WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH AND HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. PETRUCELLI

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM PST FRI JAN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...RAIN SHEILD EXTENDS OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING IN ON THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150KT
JET WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINING WITH GOOD
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITH WSW STRONG 700 MB WINDS. WITH 700 MB WINDS IN
THE 60-75 KT RANGE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WINDS WARNING FOR PORTIONS
OF THE EAST SIDE AND HAVE EXTENDED THIS WATCH WARNING AREA TO
COVER MORE THAN JUST THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ON THE EAST SIDE WITH
WINDS DOWNSLOPING FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THIS STRONG FLOW.
THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA AND SOUTH
TOWARDS PAISLEY. ALTHOUGH THE 700 WINDS ARE TOO WESTERLY TO
TRANSPORT DOWN INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO BRING WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SHASTA VALLEY..ESPECIALLY NEAR WEED.

A COLD MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH
700 MB WINDS REMAINING IN THE 30 KT RANGE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES
WITH THE COLD AIR MASS ALOFT SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS COLD DROP
SNOW LEVELS DOWN BELOW THE PREVAILING SNOW LEVEL. THIS FLOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE BEST JET DYNAMICS MOVE SOUTH
OF THE REGION AS THE JET SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW AMOUNTS THAT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
NONETHELESS AFFECT MOST OF THE PASSES IN THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE CRATER LAKE AREA MAY REACH THE LOW END OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THIS SHOULD BE DONE WELL BEFORE SUNRISE. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY COLD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS
FINALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR
-35 C AND VERY WEAK FLOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS AND
THE COAST AND WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -5 C MOST WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL
SEE LOW TEMPS BELOW FREEZING BY SUNDAY MORNING. SVEN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ORZ022-024-026.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ085.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ080-081.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

CC

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 29, 8:29 AM PST, 1 hour 59 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
829 AM PST FRI JAN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SE SELMA              42.23N 123.52W
01/29/2016  M1.39 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL. OBSERVER LOCATION N FORK
            THOMPSON CR RD ACROSS FROM BORICA.

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Jan 29, 9:13 AM PST, 1 hour 15 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
913 AM PST FRI JAN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       10 NNW GOLD HILL        42.57N 123.09W
01/29/2016  M0.53 INCH       JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE MIDNIGHT. 36 HOUR TOTAL OF 1.23
            INCHES.

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Jan 29, 9:59 AM PST, 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
959 AM PST FRI JAN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW WEED               41.37N 122.43W
01/29/2016  M2.50 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER LOCATION 6 MI W BLACK BUTTE.

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Jan 29, 10:04 AM PST, 24 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1004 AM PST FRI JAN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW OBRIEN            42.05N 123.71W
01/29/2016  M1.00 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER LOCATION 1 MI S OF OBRIEN.

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Jan 29, 10:08 AM PST, 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1008 AM PST FRI JAN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNW WILDERVILLE       42.46N 123.49W
01/29/2016  E0.60 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVER LOCATION 17 MI WEST OF TOWN.

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Jan 29, 10:15 AM PST, 13 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1015 AM PST FRI JAN 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW WINSTON            43.15N 123.46W
01/29/2016  E40 MPH          DOUGLAS            OR   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC ESTIMATED 40MPH GUSTS... TREE BLEW
            OVER, BUT WAS A DYING TREE. MANY BRANCHES
            BLOWING AROUND IN THE AREA.

&&

NWS MEDFORD OR
IRIS SYSTEM

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 avalanche. Local standard time, as filed.

Avalanche, Central & Eastern Lake County

When
January 29, 10:28 AM PST to 11:27 AM PST
Where
Central & Eastern Lake County forecast zone
Reported by
RAWS
Coordinates
42.793, -120.387 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Rock Creek RAWS recorded a gust to 58 mph at 29/1127 PST.

What these are

Avalanche
A mass of snow sliding down a mountainside that caused a death, an injury or damage.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Oregon in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 611134.