Strong Wind in Nevada, January 13, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 AM PST WED JAN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEK...MAINLY STAYING TO OUR NORTH BUT CLIPPING THE
SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES AT TIMES.
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SIERRA...OWENS VALLEY...AND WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AS STORM
SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. MOST OF THE BEST MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THIS WAVE AND AS
SUCH WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES OUTSIDE OF
THE SIERRA CREST. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE THE WINDS...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH RES MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY ON STRONG WINDS IN THE SIERRA (THOUGH A BIT LOWER
MAGNITUDE THAN ADVERTISED LAST NIGHT) AND FOR THE MOST PART STAYING
OUT OF THE OWENS VALLEY.  IVE GONE AHEAD AND POSTED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE SIERRA THROUGH 10PM TONIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE MID SLOPES AND
HIGHER WILL BE OBSERVING SOME STRONG WINDS TODAY...BUT SHALLOW
INVERSIONS ACROSS THE OWENS VALLEY AND THE LACK OF AN ORGANIZED
CRITICAL LAYER ALOFT SHOULD LARGELY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSLOPING. ANY STRONGER WINDS THAT DO MANAGE TO CREEP INTO THE
OWENS VALLEY WILL PROBABLY BE BRIEF AND OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE FAR WESTERN EDGES OF THE OWENS VALLEY.  FURTHER SOUTH...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT BUT LOOK TO BE
BELOW THE NEED FOR ANY WIND ADVISORIES.

BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGE PUSHES IN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK
STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE IN BY FRIDAY. THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS
ALSO FAIRLY WEAK BUT WILL GIVE THE SIERRA ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME
SHOWERS AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOHAVE
COUNTY. THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF GUSTY
WINDS...WITH SOME STRONGER NORTH WINDS FILLING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL BE
FLATTENED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS NEVADA INTO UTAH. THERE LOOKS
TO BE QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INYO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE ALTHOUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND LINCOLN COUNTY
COULD PICK UP MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. IMPACTS TO ROADWAYS WILL
BE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BUT MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SIERRA MONDAY WITH CHANCES
SPREADING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS SOME MODELS ARE
BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED JET AND PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TODAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS FAVORING DIURNAL TRENDS. SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE
SIERRA...OWENS VALLEY...AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL RESULT IN
TURBULENCE DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN FEATURES. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AS WELL. DESPITE THE INCREASING
WINDS...WINDS AT LOCAL TAF SITES INCLUDING KBIH AND KDAG LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET. SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY
PUSH INTO KDAG AFTER DARK.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

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