Heavy Snow and High Wind in Nevada, February 17 to 18, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
820 AM PST WED FEB 17 2016

.UPDATE...

WINDS GUSTS HAVE INCREASED A BIT FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST
THIS MORNING AND ARE A BIT STRONGER IN THE TRUCKEE/TAHOE AREA
ALREADY. WE HAVE RECEIVED INFORMATION REPORTING DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES IN THE TRUCKEE AREA THIS MORNING AND WINDS HAVE
GUSTED TO NEAR 55 MPH AROUND LAKE TAHOE ALREADY. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AS THE
UPPER JET LINES UP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE THE TAHOE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY SQUELCH THE STRONGEST WINDS...BUT FOR NOW WE FEEL UPGRADING
THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING IS PRUDENT. THE WARNING WILL RUN UNTIL
THE WINTER STORM WARNING STARTS THIS EVENING...BUT THE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO DECREASE BEFORE THEN.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS ZONE 1...SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY AND MINERAL
COUNTY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT IMPACT THAT REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF DOWN
SLOPE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE PINE NUTS INTO SMITH VALLEY AND
EAST OF THE WASSICKS ALONG WALKER LAKE. HIGHWAY 95 IS PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE TO GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS. IT APPEARS WE COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS SUFFICIENTLY LENGTHY TO WARRANT
ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LASTLY...WITH ROUGHLY TWO WEEKS OF DRY WEATHER PRECEDING THIS
EVENT THE LIKELIHOOD OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE INCREASED. WE WILL
ADD AREAS OF BLOWING DUST...BUT THE GUSTY NATURE OF THE WINDS
SHOULD LIMIT THE AREAL EXTENT AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME AND LIMIT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO NO WORSE THAN 3-4 MILES. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM PST WED FEB 17 2016/

SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WINTER
STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY SNOW AND RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE THE RIDGE REBUILDS
OVER THE WEST WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WINDS...
THE NEXT WINTER STORM IS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AS OF 4 AM, IS JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. PRECEDING THIS STORM, IS
AN IMPRESSIVE JET WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 70 MPH. AS THIS JET
BECOMES TRANSVERSE OVER THE SIERRA, WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING. MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SIERRA
FRONT FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF SUSANVILLE THROUGH MONO COUNTY TO
REALIZE MUCH OF THE WINDS PRESENT UP TO 700MB. GUSTS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 60 MPH BY NOON WITH WIND PRONE AREAS GUSTING UP TO
70-75 MPH. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SIERRA FRONT.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT PORTIONS OF ALPINE COUNTY AND VERY
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ALSO HAVE A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AS WELL, BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THEY WILL
BE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. ALSO, THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH AROUND LAKE TAHOE BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THURSDAY. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL STRAFE
THE NORTHERN ZONES NEAR THE OREGON BORDER LATE THURSDAY WITH A
MORE MODERATE INCREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED. GUSTS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 40-45 MPH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
NORTH OF A DOYLE TO GERLACH LINE. ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH WIND GUSTS
INCREASING UP TO 45 MPH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

PRECIP...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS
STORM. THERE WERE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS, BUT THE OVERALL EFFECT
WAS THE SAME AS THE CHANGES CANCELLED ONE ANOTHER OUT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL START AROUND 7500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE SIERRA. THEN, LEVELS QUICKLY CRASH TO
VALLEY FLOORS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.

TOTALS:
 SIERRA ABOVE 7000 FEET:     12-20 INCHES
 TAHOE AREA BELOW 7000 FEET:  4-10 INCHES
 MONO COUNTY EAST OF HWY 395:  2-6 INCHES
 VIRGINIA CITY AREA:           2-5 INCHES
 RENO/CARSON CITY METROS:      UP TO 1 INCH/LOCALIZED UP TO 2 INCHES.

ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF SNOW FOR
WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO BIG CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE AND
ENERGY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STRONG JET OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL BRING IN ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MOVING TO ABOVE NORMAL. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES LOOK TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN CA/NV LATE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
THE BOTH FALL APART BEFORE COMING INTO THE SIERRA. HOON

AVIATION...

A MODERATE WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE REGION TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS,
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AND MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW/ICING AND
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

WINDS...RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS
AROUND 100 MPH BY MIDDAY. TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE A CONCERN FOR MUCH OF TODAY FOR ALL SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 18Z WITH
PEAK WINDS LIKELY BETWEEN 2/17 20Z AND 2/18 6Z. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS
WILL BE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT WHILE WIND GUSTS AT SIERRA TERMINALS WILL BE IN THE 35
TO 45 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING.

RAIN/SNOW...PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO KTRK AND KTVL BETWEEN
18Z-20Z WEDNESDAY INITIALLY AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT WILL QUICKLY
TURN TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY AROUND 0Z-3Z FOR KTRK AND AROUND 3Z-6Z
FOR KTVL. ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KTRK AND KTVL. PRECIPITATION AT KMMH WILL BEGIN ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER
WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR KRNO/KCXP THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
THE WINDS BUT RAIN/SNOW WILL BEGIN PUSHING IN OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR 5000 FEET BETWEEN 6Z
AND 12Z THURSDAY. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SO WARM THAT
LITTLE, IF ANY, ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE WARM GROUND,
BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SLUSHY MIX COULD ACCUMULATE ON RUNWAYS.

THE QUICK-HITTING STORM MOVES EAST BY LATE THURSDAY LEAVING BEHIND
ONLY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY
THE FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. ELW/HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON PST THURSDAY
     NVZ002.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ001.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ003.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE
     IN NVZ004.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON PST
     THURSDAY CAZ071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ071.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON PST THURSDAY
     CAZ072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ072.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)