A low pressure system from the southwest combined with a moist and unstable atmosphere to allow a few strong thunderstorms to develop - one of which became severe over Dawson County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GGW wrote it up.
A low pressure system from the southwest combined with a moist and unstable atmosphere to allow a few strong thunderstorms to develop - one of which became severe over Dawson County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Glasgow, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 7:27 PM MST, 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service GLASGOW MT 827 PM MDT SUN AUG 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Tue... Sent an early update tonight to fine tune the immediate forecast grids for tonight based on current radar reflectivity returns and latest hi-res model data. This event looks to have begun and two separate storm clusters - one south and east and the other north and west. These two are expected to eventually conglomerate together over our central and northern zones later tonight. BMickelson Previous short term discussion: Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across central Montana this afternoon. Expect coverage to continue to increase late this afternoon and evening. While high cloudiness has limited daytime heating over portions of northeast Montana, western parts of the CWA may still see an isolated severe thunderstorm into this evening. Given the dry boundary layer, damaging winds would be the primary concern. Otherwise, with 1.00-1.25" of precipitable water, locally heavy rainfall may occur. While around 0.1" of total rainfall is expected along and south of the Missouri River, up to 0.25" is expected north of the Missouri River. Locally higher amounts are possible in steadier thunderstorm activity as it moves across tonight. The combination of steady rainfall along with some wind threat may impact harvesting operations as well as late evening activities and travel. Monday into Tuesday will feature drier weather as a shortwave ridge develops over eastern Montana. The upper closed low over the Pacific Northwest will still very much influence weather however, as southwest flow aloft out ahead of that system will become established once again late Tuesday as the next shortwave approaches. Thus, a return to showery conditions with thunderstorms possible on Tuesday is currently expected by late day. Maliawco .LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun... AFTERNOON UPDATE: Tuesday night and Wednesday were looking very wet as a trough moves through western montana and places northeast montana under southwest flow with embedded disturbances. Some of the showers could become severe. PoPs were increased during these periods. A ridge to the west will then build late in the week and move through over the weekend warming temperatures and reducing chance for rain showers. GAH PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION: Wet pattern returns to northeast Montana for next week as the upper low over Vancouver Island slowly pushes east. Suppression of the upper ridge along with the cloudier conditions will result in temperatures slightly below normal into next weekend. Another round of storms expected by Tuesday night as the upper low pushes out of the northern Rockies. Frontal system accompanying the low will provide the focus for the storms but the greatest threat across the northern zones. Upper trof trailing from the upper low will move out of the Great Basin on Thursday. With the continued monsoonal flow and cooler mid level northwest flow could see a few more thunderstorms as the trof moves into the plains by Friday. Upper ridge builds over the region for the weekend to bring a few days of hot and dry weather. Ebert && .AVIATION... SYNOPSIS: A large upper low continues to spin over the Pacific Northwest this evening pushing southwest flow aloft into Northeast Montana. Isolated thunderstorms with gusty erratic wind, brief IFR conditions and some hail are possible through 12Z. VFR conditions will be the rule...with the exception near any thunderstorms where brief periods of IFR remains possible. WIND: East wind will continue through the night and switch over to the west beginning at 10Z in the west and all areas should turn west by 15Z. Proton && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && weather.gov/glasgow
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 904 AM MDT SUN AUG 7 2016 MTZ016>027-059>062-081000- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY- DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE- RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS- SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT- 904 AM MDT SUN AUG 7 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A ROUND OF STEADY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
830 PM MDT SUN AUG 7 2016
MTZ025-026-080315-
PRAIRIE MT-DAWSON MT-
830 PM MDT SUN AUG 7 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PRAIRIE AND SOUTHWESTERN
DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM MDT...
AT 829 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TERRY...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TERRY...FALLON...MCCLOUD...MARSH...ZERO...CALYPSO AND HOYT.
LAT...LON 4657 10524 4657 10545 4660 10545 4660 10549
4666 10549 4666 10558 4674 10558 4675 10562
4683 10562 4683 10565 4715 10557 4703 10477
4654 10507 4654 10524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 185DEG 36KT 4670 10536
MICKELSONSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
910 PM MDT SUN AUG 7 2016
MTZ023-025-026-080400-
PRAIRIE MT-DAWSON MT-MCCONE MT-
910 PM MDT SUN AUG 7 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCCONE...
NORTHWESTERN PRAIRIE AND SOUTHERN DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM
MDT...
AT 909 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF BROCKWAY TO 18 MILES NORTHWEST
OF TERRY TO 7 MILES NORTH OF FALLON. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GLENDIVE...CIRCLE...FALLON...WEST GLENDIVE...LINDSAY...MCCLOUD...
MARSH...STIPEK...FOREST PARK AND HOYT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4682 10505 4689 10567 4716 10582 4770 10534
4731 10503 4715 10442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 228DEG 40KT 4718 10573 4697 10560 4694 10506
MICKELSONThe Glasgow radar (KGGW), 143 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:20 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Lindsay Divide MT-200 DOT station recorded a 62 mph wind gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, August 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 654570.