Strong to severe storms developed ahead of a cold front. There were numerous reports of damaging winds.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
Strong to severe storms developed ahead of a cold front. There were numerous reports of damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 7, 11:56 AM CST, 1 hour 56 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1256 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016 The tranquil weather of the last few days is about to end. A cold front currently over northwest Iowa will drift into northern Missouri and central Illinois this afternoon before becoming quasi- stationary. GFS/NAM/RAP all develop a healthy amount of CAPE this afternoon...perhaps too much on the GFS and NAM given the dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s that are in place over the area. With the surface ridge still locked in over the Gulf Coast, I don't see any real strong moisture return potential today so I think convection is going to have to work with the relatively dry air today. Regardless, all guidance including the high resolution convection allowing models break precip out along the front over northern Missouri by 18-19Z and move it across northeast Missouri into west central and southwest Illinois. HRRR variants are especially interesting as they organize the convection into a decent cluster/MCS. Organized severe convection seems like a decent possibility given 0-6km shear increasing to 35-45kts in the afternoon even considering the conservative RAP 1500-2000 J/Kg. Have therefore increased PoPs to high chance and likely along the front this afternoon. Highs south of the front will likely be near or a couple of degrees warmer than Friday's readings. Along and north of the front, highs will be very dependent on exactly when and where afternoon convection decides to fire...although highs in the upper 70s to around 80 look likely. Carney .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat May 7 2016 GFS and NAM agree that the front will become stationary from central and southeast Missouri into southern Illinois tonight. There may still be some isolated/scattered thunderstorms along the front, but best chance of storms later this evening and overnight will be farther north across northeast Missouri into central Illinois. Both the NAM and GFS show the upper ridge slowly moving east across the area on Sunday and the surface front beginning to move back north as a warm front. Both models are showing strong moisture convergence along the front ahead of mid level vort max as it retreats northward on Sunday which warrants high chance PoPs. GFS and ECMWF are still showing a series of upper troughs moving across the area Monday through Wednesday that will make for an active period for showers and thunderstorms. There will still be the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms during the period, particularly if the atmosphere can become unstable after a previous round of convection. The mostly likely period for rain at this time looks like Monday night when both the GFS and ECMWF show strong moisture convergence occurring under the passage of a negatively tilted mid-level trough. Upper trough will move off to the east by late in the week, but some weak instability underneath a weak mid level shortwave moving across the area warrant keeping a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast Thursday and Friday. Will keep near normal temperatures through the period as both the GFS and ECMWF are forecasting 850mb temperatures between 10-15C. Clouds and rain chances will limit diurnal range in temperatures. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016 A cold front will sag S into the area this aftn and continue to drift S thru the night ending up S of I-70 by Sun mrng. Batch of SHRAs/TSTMs dropping SE out of wrn/sthrn IA this mrng will continue to slide along the front into NE MO/W Cntrl Il this aftn...potentially impacting the KUIN terminal between 19-20Z. Activity should continue to push SE and intensify. The wrn edge of this activity may clip some of the STL metro sites after 21Z. Addtnl SHRAs/TSTMs may percolate thru the night and have VCSH to cover that threat due to uncertainties about timing...placement and coverage. The bndry begins lifting back N tomorrow...current thinkning is that it should be N of I-70 before aftn convection begins to initiate. Specifics for KSTL: Precip may impact the terminal late this aftn as a cluster of SHRAs/TSTMs passes to the NE of the terminal. If the terminal is impacted by a stronger core...then conditions could drop to IFR in heavy rain. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with scttrd SHRAs thru the night assoc with a cold front moving S of the terminal. This bndry is fcst to lift back N thru the terminal tomorrow... temporarily ending the precip threat. 2% && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 518 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081030- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-SAINT CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-SAINT CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- SAINT LOUIS MO-SAINT LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-SAINT FRANCOIS MO-SAINTE GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- 518 AM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. THERE IS A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER FOR A SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 12 MPH AND DRY FUELS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE. BRITT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
252 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0252 PM TSTM WND GST 3 WNW HANNIBAL 39.72N 91.44W
05/07/2016 M43 MPH MARION MO AWOS
&&
TILLYThe St Louis radar (KLSX), 130 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:53 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several large tree limbs and power lines around town.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several power lines around town.
Thunderstorm winds blew down a couple of trees in Portage Des Sioux. Also, a barn under construction sustained major damage.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several large tree limbs.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 644800, 644802, 644842, 644864.