Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, May 7, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
645 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN ON A DRY NOTE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS INDIANA.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTH TO
CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LINGERING IN THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARRIVE
IN THE AREA...IN COMBINATION WITH THE LINGERING FRONT...CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

ADDED SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER NORTH AND THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH
RELFECTIVITY PROGS. THIS ALSO MATCHES UP BETTER WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES. STRONG STORMS WERE GETTING READY TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN
VIGO...SULLIVAN AND KNOX COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK.
THESE STORMS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE ONE OR MORE
SPIKE TO SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ACROSS NRN INDIANA TO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ABUNDANT CLOUD ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INVADING INDIANA. RADAR SHOWS SCT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS. MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH OF
CENTRAL INDIANA BY 00Z...AND PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. RAPID REFRESH KEEPS ALL PRECIP NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER BY 23Z. MEANWHILE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE COLUMN. THUS
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST. MAY NEED TO KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR COLLABORATIONS
SAKE OR TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL SHOWER CHANCES. DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR 4C BY
12Z SUNDAY. MAVMOS APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
AND WILL STICK CLOSE...EXPECT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE LINGERING
CLOUD NEAR THE SLOWING FRONT MAY INHIBIT MUCH COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DRY COLUMN WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THE GFS
IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
GETS THAN THE NAM. THE NAM LINGERS THE FRONT CLOSER TO CENTRAL
INDIANA...ACROSS THE SW PARTS OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE ONGOING
PROGRESSES OF THE FRONT...THE GFS APPEARS BETTER HERE...AND THE
FARTHER SOUTH POSITION SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
AND FOCUS OF ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL
INDIANA. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR
ABOVE MAVMOS VALUES.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BEGINS
TO DRIFT BACK NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BEGIN TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
WARM FRONT APPROACHES. FURTHER HELPING THE SYSTEM...GFS AND NAM
SUGGEST AM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PROVIDING
LIFT. THE CHERRY ON TOP OF THIS SET UP IS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
SEEN ON THE 305K GFS SURFACE...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES IN EXCESS
OF 5 G/KG EXPECTED. THUS WILL TREND POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AT OR
ABOVE MAVMOS ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS ALSO.

THE 305 GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE MAINTAINS THE GOOD LIFT ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY AS SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES REMAIN OVER 5 G/KG. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL DEEP SATURATION. LITTLE SUPPORT IS
SEEN ALOFT AS THE MODELS SUGGESTS WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT.
GFS SUGGEST A WEAK SHIRT ARRIVE AFT 18Z MONDAY...WHILE THE NAM
FAILS TO FIND THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AND TEMPS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY APPEAR WET. THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS
IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TI DRIFT EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
POISED TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. ACTIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA AS SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO RISE TOWARD 4 G/KG.
FURTHER SUPPORT APPEARS FROM THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWING
DEEP SATURATION ON BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUS WILL TREND POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS VALUES AT THAT
TIME...ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN AND HIGHS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A
LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTIONS IMPACTING THE
AREA AT VARIOUS TIMES. THUNDER WILL BE A THREAT IN MOST
PERIODS...BUT NOT ALL.

BLENDED INITIALIZATINO HANDLED THINGS WELL AND FEW CHANGES WERE
REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 080000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBMG...WHICH SHOULD
SEE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN FRINGES MAY RESULT IN CB/S IN THE
VICINITY OF KHUF/KBMG UNTIL 080200Z-080300Z.

OTHERWISE...MAY BE A PERIOD OF CEILINGS 030-035 THIS EVENING IN THE
POST FRONTAL ZONE...WITH HIGHER LAYERS ABOVE 050 TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 330-360 DEGREES AT 9-13 KTS THIS EVENING WITH A
FEW GUSTS 18-20 KTS PRIOR TO SUNSET. THESE WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER 080600Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
638 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

INZ021-028>031-038-040>042-081000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-TIPTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-
RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
ANDERSON...MUNCIE
638 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

HAZARDS: CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

TIMING: TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE...HOWEVER ANY STORM CAN PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION: A FRONT LINGERING NEAR INDIANA WILL CAUSE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ035>037-039-043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-081000-
FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-HAMILTON-VERMILLION-PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-
MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-
SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-
LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAWFORDSVILLE...INDIANAPOLIS...
TERRE HAUTE...SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...
BEDFORD...SEYMOUR
638 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING NEAR AND SOUTH OF A GREENSBURG TO FRANKLIN TO CLINTON
LINE. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER NEAR THAT
LINE AND NORTH TO A NEW CASTLE TO CARMEL TO CRAWFORDSVILLE LINE.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

TIMING: DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION: A COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR
SEVERE THIS EVENING.

 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK: OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF STORMS
WILL BE SEVERE...HOWEVER ANY STORM CAN PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION: A FRONT LINGERING NEAR INDIANA WILL CAUSE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

MK