Flash Flood and Hail in Missouri, July 15, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
256 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Skies are partly cloudy across much of the forecast area with
temperatures from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Some thunderstorm
activity was over portions of northeast Arkansas and also over
portions of north-central Mississippi. A weak cold front extended
from northeast Ohio through southern Missouri and into eastern
Colorado. The front will drop south into the forecast area later
tonight with additional thunderstorm development possible.
Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows Saturday
morning in the low to mid 70s.

The front will stall out briefly over the region Saturday morning and
then start to lift back north as a warm front by Saturday
afternoon. This will mean that there will be a chance of
thunderstorms during the day on Saturday. Temperatures will be
quite warm on Saturday with highs in the lower 90s. The warm front
should be north of the region by Saturday evening so dry weather
is expected.

By Sunday, an upper level ridge will start to build into the
region. This will mean more dry weather with temperatures warming
some with highs in the low to mid 90s. More dry and hot weather is
expected through Monday as well with heat index values exceeding
100 in many locations.

Upper level disturbances will drop through Missouri and into the
forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing a chance of
thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will remain rather hot with
highs in the low to mid 90s. Dry weather returns for Thursday and
next Friday as the upper level ridge remains in control.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions expected to prevail except in thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms look most likely between 00 and 06z as a complex of
storms develops and shifts across Arkansas and shifts across the
Midsouth. Brief periods of MVFR or IFR vis due to heavy rain and
locally gusty wind is possible. Light winds anticipated through
the period. Patchy fog may occur late tonight at MKL AND TUP.

30

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
908 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-161615-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
908 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING...SMALL HAIL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THE GREATEST RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105
DEGREES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.